Nick Celsius's avatar

Nick Celsius

1 points

Hi There,

I have not read the book so may confuse matters by not addressing your exact question, but here is a summary that might help.

For your ev calculation:

(Outcome1xfrequency1)+(Outcome2xfrequency2) you should usually have a +EV result plus a -EV result.

For example:

You have 9 outs on the flop, let's assume villain is ahead and villain pushes all in. Pot is $100 plus villains $100 push. Therefore you must call $100.

Outcome 1: you call and win a profit of pot+villain push, which is $200.
Frequency 1: you have 9 outs so your chance of hitting an out and winning is 35%

Outcome 2: you call and lose $100.
Frequency 2: you miss your outs 65% of the time.

(200x0.35)+(-100x0.65)=EV of calling
So the EV of calling here is +$5.

I understand this does not answer your question about the car but it might help clarify the process.

Nov. 18, 2021 | 11:19 a.m.

Leave the preflop action behind. Great, got it. Thanks. I kind of thought that was the case but was over thinking things. Cheers.

Nov. 7, 2021 | 9:07 a.m.

Hi, I guess many will wonder what I'm doing here asking such a simple question but I need to learn solid fundamentals somewhere.

This is not a question about if the play is good, I need to know if I'm understanding the maths correctly, it's a made up scenario.

Let's say there is a pre flop limper to my right, I'm on the button and raise 4bb, all fold except the limper who calls. I've got two high cards. Flop comes and I can only win by hitting one of my cards. Villain raises. I've got 6 outs only, about 13%.

I call the raise knowing that if I hit on the turn I can extract at least 8 X that call amount by the end of the hand to make it profitable. But that doesn't cover the pre flop raise I made, do I need to make sure that by the end of the hand I get 8 X that call plus my original 4bb raise to make it profitable? Or do I not need to recoup that 4bb PFR because it has its own equity?

I hope I have explained correctly. I know it is absolutely basic question but I've been studying a lot this week and I have nobody else to ask.

Nov. 6, 2021 | 8:57 a.m.

Ah I have found what I am looking for... Learning Paths!

Nov. 4, 2021 | 8:37 p.m.

Oops I posted a thread without saying hi!

A quick summary of me... I run a lot and am trying to focus on my mind game as well as my poker game. This is new for me the last 12 months, previous to this I abused my mind and body. But the last 12 months have shown me a healthy mind is key to success in all areas of life.

I like low stakes NLHE but I'm constantly in spots where I don't have a clue what to do. When I do think I know what to do I'm usually doing the exact opposite of what the range charts tell me! 😂 20 years of winging it and playing ABC poker has not helped.

Hoping Run It Once will accompany my other studying and help me understand how to be a winning player and not just a lucky punter.

Nov. 4, 2021 | 7:15 p.m.

Post | Nick Celsius posted in Chatter: Help on where to start


Can anyone help me by advising where to start? I only have the cheap package... Shall I just scroll the videos and look for ones that stand out?

I have about 3 hours per day to study, 2 hours to play.

I have basic understanding of fundamentals but very basic. IE I know what pot odds and implied odds are. I have range charts but cannot remember them nor find patterns between them.

I have played for almost 20 years, read and understand Harrington and similar. Prefer NL cash though.

Pre flop play better than my post flop play.

I just wondered if there was a route or set order to watch training videos in. Of course, if there is not, I am comfortable working my way through the videos and identifying which ones are more important for me to watch.

Nov. 4, 2021 | 6:54 p.m.

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