red wood

-tough to make an exact read because you don't have a cold 4bet stat but we can still generalize
-in my experience this is KK/AA almost always here. with your K blockers it's most likely AA
-can't see him cold 4betting AQ/AQs nor QQ (depends on table dynamic). If this is QQ, i think the small cbet flop then check back turn line is the least most likely line he would take with it
-i dont expect you to be able to fold KK, AQs, JJ in this spot which makes him shoving AK (or any other random hand/bluff) on the river a suicide bluff
-your range is almost exclusively QQ (small amounts of JJ, and small amounts of KK because of possible 5bets)
-The turn check is likely for pot control, safety move against QQ. once you check again on the river I think he feels safe enough to fire AA for value
-3 streets of value is optimistic for AA here. but two streets with an overshove seems a little more reasonable
- i fold here and take the same the line you do
-

thank you for the responses guys!

i was actually the villain in this hand holding 8c7c. the opponent used his full 60 second time back and clicked call. my thought process for making this move was a lot of the reasons you are saying why we should bet/ fold or check back this river card. i think he made a mistake betting river and i tried to capitalize off that mistake

im wondering his most likely reason for eventually calling. was it that he has the nut straight and that type of hand is really hard to fold, or was it that the turn donk didn't make sense for my whole scheme? obviously it's impossible to understand his exact thought process during the hand, but i was looking for responses that argued calling to get an idea of what it could be. i think i have the nut bluffing hand on the river here, whether this is a good spot to make a move is up for debate

i think a river bet here has more fold equity than a turn bet.
the flop float OTOH...

@UpUpAndAway

what's the lightest you call here given original raiser dropped out?

that king is a trap card and i wouldn't bet it ever, as a bluff or for value. his value range is loaded and can x/r raise river with sets/straights after you checked turn. as played id fold

thanks @Robert Johnson

It should be the other way around.. The ammount of bluffs you got doesn't decide how many value bets you want to bet. giving up is always ev0 if we got zero sdv. If we start overbluffing we will have a ev- bet unless villain is over folding. So yeah in a vacuum you could make some money but in the long run you will just be burning money for no reason (Unless villain is terrible to begin with and never adjust)

why can't we decide how many value hands we can bet based on amount of bluff combos we get to a spot with? i believe both value and bluffs work together synonymously in a balanced strategy

i check behind river here too. as played b/f.

i dont think i have a bluff raising range if im the villain in this hand. I mean all of my x/r bluffing range raises on a street before river

. I think I like betting a bit more on this texture as I want to protect my OP range on some runout that I want to bet flop with<

OP can you elaborate on this? flop is the most interesting imo

my first instinct was fold as well. what's your thoughts on call/re-evaluate flop? are we too short stacked?

thanks for the responses guys. so is the answer then c) doesn't matter. a random mix of 10 combos will do? and therefore we should go the next step and choose the ones that have the better blockers?

im curious if there is any argument to turn the top of the weak made hand range into a bluff versus the bottom of that range.

to rephrase it: ignoring action (because i don't think it matters), we get to a spot where we want to turn a one pair hand into a bluff. our one pair hand range is JT,QJ,KJ and AJ (for simplicity all of these combos are just one combo and all of these combos lose at showdown). we calculate the optimal number of bluffs we should have in our range and it is 2 combos. If we dont take into consideration blockers..should we use the bottom 2 combos (JT and QJ) or the top 2 combos (KJ and AJ) or it doesnt matter (random mix of 2 of the 4 will do)?

i hope im being clear in my question, i understand how this can not make sense. I have a thought/idea in my mind that im trying to express and disprove. thanks!