Gaby Foster

In my opinion your arguments doesn't make much sense at all.

''If you're basically trying to trap him here, you can't fold.'' Yeah, as played I think my fold was bad and that we should call considering how weak his range is.

''Definitely disagree that he'll check back most draws on the turn. Still, he can draw for free.'' I also think we'll get value from a lot of his draw no matter if we C/C or bet. It's truethat he'll probably check behind and draw for free some of the time, but it's also true that he'll bet turn and bluff blank rivers some of the time too. It's very hard for me to say which most +EV against flush draws.There's so many more hands combos he could have than just flush draws or KQ though.

''Ït's better to get a fold than to trap yourself and pay off two streets. Bet/fold the turn.'' Why would we trap ourself by keeping his range weak? I'm just interested in which play is most +EV.

The more I think about this hand the more I like C/C OTT and C/C oTR. Seems like a great way to extract maximum value from this players wide range.

IMO, C/C turn was good and my fold on the river was horrible.

Would be interesting to hear what someone else is thinking. 

The queen OTT is a really bad card for his range. I expect him to have a lot of 54-87, 55-JJ, some flush draws, a couple of top pairs and then probably at least a few combos of random floats like JT with BDFD. 

Some of the weaker hands in this range will probably raise the flop but there's still probably a bunch of them in his calling range. Out of all these combos KQ only makes up for 9 combos. 

All these weaker hands will have a hard time calling a turn CB, but if we check he'll likely turn those into a bluff. A lot of these will probably continue bluffing OTR, especially on a river like this one.

He's also likely to bet a ton of the hands that he would have called a turn CB with like FDs, TPs etc. It's not that I'm afraid to get raised OTT (I dont think I'll get raised on the queen that much at all). It's that I want keep his range weak, by not making him fold all his weaker hands. 

OTR you mention that I'm beat by QT, KQ, flushes. How many combos of QT can you see getting to the river? When I'm trying see all different kinds of hands that could have made it to the river with a high CC from the BTN and a low F2CB it feels like a whole bunch of them are weak hands that loves bluffing the turn + this riv.

In afterthought I think it would have been a great call OTR.

Am I too optimistic here or does my arguments make any sense?

I wouldn't call here if it wasn't for a fish being on the button and the blinds seeming to be pretty bad.

In hindsight I agree with you that my river play was bad. 

Raising the flop seems very interesting. One argument I have against it is that I'll mostly only fold out hands that would have given up OTT if I just called anyway. Though getting to check behind turn and be sure to see the river if we raise the flop is somewhat appealing. 

I find it hard to evaluate which play is most +EV in spots like these, calling the flop or rasing.

Obviously it's player dependent but let's say against a seemingly descent reg like this one. 

Any ideas?

I had no particular reads and my small samplesize of 175 is way too small to draw any conclusions other than that he's likely not a regular. His 3b of 5% is from all positions combined, then again a very small sample.

Would be interesting to know how close this is to calling. Anyone who would call here? What would we do with JJ?