Gonira
16 points
me too. i think you can fold flop. his range is strong given positions, and the presence of the cold caller makes it less likely that he cbets air.
Sept. 26, 2014 | 9:54 p.m.
it's what i would do if i had money left, haha
about the sb opening, do you guys really think it's good to be looser than in cutoff and play a lot of junk out of position? it seems to me that regs defend a quite wide range bvb and do float a lot nowadays. i actually filtered the opens from sb in my database with hands outside the top 30% and i'm slightly down opening them (not a huge sample though). and i'm very selective in picking the spots where i open loose, so i imagine it would be worse if i open a lot against tougher villains.
Sept. 25, 2014 | 6:59 a.m.
if you're not planning to get the kings in against a shove, why don't you just flat the 3bet?
Sept. 24, 2014 | 4:42 p.m.
fold pre, c/c flop, c/f as played
Sept. 24, 2014 | 2:50 a.m.
co vs btn, especially with his sizing, it's definitely way too weak to fold KQs. river is tough, probably folding is better against 25nl unknowns, but quite exploitable. without blocking his flush draws, i like a calldown more.
Sept. 24, 2014 | 12:37 a.m.
sprince, i think you misread my opening stats. my mp/co/btn/sb open is currently 19/31/50/32
Sept. 20, 2014 | 6:33 p.m.
the graph and stats i posted are filtered to regular tables only.
i ran hot in my first sample for sure (winning at 9bb/100 wr with -3bb/100 non-sd is way above my long term average), but as i said, i had a stretch of over 700k hands in my old database winning at 5bb/100 with a -5bb/100 red line, 700k is not sunrun. and seeing this redline suddenly drop to a loss rate of more than -10bb/100 in almost 200k hands (almost certainly not variance) is a shocker for me.
first thing in my mind is i might be cbetting flop and 3betting pf too little much and folding more to cbets, compared to how i played before (my wwsf went from 47.4 to 44.6, this can't be good). i just can't point anymore what was the kind of close spots i was attacking before i stopped winning :/
it's possible that the games overtook me (seeing the high level of discussion in this low stakes forum is quite depressing, makes me think games are dead), but it's mind boggling to me how i can be crushing for years until early 2014 and then suddenly it all stopped. games haven't changed this much overnight (i guess?)
fwiw, my river call win% is 46.5. i agree with you, steve. i probably should try hero calling more often. and very good point about my turn and river frequencies, it makes a lot of sense. but what is strange is that i had this same lack of balance before, yet i was winning at a way more substantial rate, which makes me believe the turning point in my game was really due to pre-flop and flop aggression, i don't know.
Sept. 20, 2014 | 6:30 p.m.
i have a very solid sample in stars regular tables (something like 700k hands) telling me that i was pretty much a crusher in 50nl/100nl, winning at ~7bb/100 in 50 and ~5bb/100 in 100. i slightly changed my style during this time, going anywhere from 23/18/6 to 27/21/8, but regardless, i always won easily, with very little variance (i had a 40bi downer at 100nl leading to a 130k hand be stretch once, but that was pretty much it).
but in the last few months, it all went downhill. without notice, i suddenly became a small winner/breakeven meh reg, and although i can see that i ran somewhat tighter lately, i can't really put my finger on the reason why. i don't feel like i changed my approach to the game, but stats have changed and winrate (specifically red line) suffered immensely.
i was always a red line loser, but my lossrate overall has always roamed around the 5-6bb/100 mark. though, in my last 150k hands (50k if i include zoom), this loss rate literally doubled, while the blue line gains remained roughly equal.
check the hands i played this year. that's all i have in my current database. i filtered zoom hands out, since the player pool is so different and i'm not yet a proven winner there. it looks like some witchery happened around the 100k hand mark and then booooom, red line nightmare.
i have no idea why i'm playing so poorly and i don't know where to start fixing my leaks. at first i thought it was variance, but it clearly isn't, since the redline is dropping fast and steady (like never before in my career) during a significant sample. i can't believe variance can be blamed for that (can it?)
please please please help me to identify what i was doing fine before and i stopped doing or what awful thing i started doing that i'm not doing anymore or whatever. anything. i need a guideline.
i'll post my positional stats. starting with the first 115k hands of this sample, when things were working:
and here the most recent hands, when things stopped to work:
any help will be very appreciated. if you want more stats/info, just ask me. thanks.
Sept. 20, 2014 | 3:17 p.m.
hi lipe, i renewed my subscription just to watch your videos, you're my hero.
abou the squeeze with nines at 5:30, don't you see more merits in flatting to try to make it to the showdown/setvalue as a standard play? just coz nines are such a crappy hand to play oop in a reraised pot and such a thin hand to 5bet/shove, don't you think?
July 24, 2014 | 12:32 p.m.
awesome person, great poker mind. very nice addition
how is it unlikely that he has a flush when it is absolutely what he is representing? and give us a range of "a lot of worse hands" he's stacking off on the turn when we put more money in, please, because i just can't see it.
call turn for fh odds and fold river unimproved imo. his range is heavily polarized and value is almost 100% flushes imo.
Jan. 29, 2015 | 2 p.m.