Jummyjamz

How many hands is your bovada sample and how many hands is your downswing over?

I play on bovada and BCP, currently, 10nl for the moment.

In general I think it's too optimistic to expect folks to fold a decent flush. You also can't really rep a FH as hard when you don't raise flop. And I don't think having the Q really blocks a significant # of his house combos.

You don't have to fold exploitably too much after you check, you can do the math on that and widen your calling range if you think that's an issue. Also, paired boards when we're OOP don't happen too too much, and really, the broadway paired boards are a different animal than like a 44Jr. If you are worried about this, you can also check/call with Qx hands, maybe?
The alternative is arriving at the turn with a SDV hand against a narrowed range OOP with two streets left, which is kind've a pain in the ass for me at least. You might be a little better able to navigate that, but to me it's a gross spot already OTT.

thats a tricky question, and I could be wrong, but my understanding is "not really". Position is so valuable deep, what does widening our value range actually accomplish?

What are you trying to accomplish with your turn play? This seems like a pretty str8forwad bet, bet, bet or bet, bet, x/c line spot to me.

turn c/r with a hand this far from the nuts puts you in a very awkward spot OTR I would think as a general rule. You may get called by some worse hands, but you still have another street to play and now you're OOP with a SDV hand basically.

Am I missing something? Why are we not value betting turn, why are you considering folding?

Checking the turn seems really bad, we let a lot of worse hands with equity see another card and not pay.

Yeah, one more vote for a very small river bet and fold to a raise

you have QQ here this deep?

Betting the flop seems bad to me this deep. As played, his sizing makes it seem pretty obvious that he's setting up stacks to me. What hands do you expect to 3bet/call that will raise this flop? Consider your perceived range and whether or not most ppl try to bluff folks off of overpairs...I'd say not.

it seems important to note that checking turn is +EV...he can check back a lot of hands that have SDV that we beat.

Yes, but then you are in weird shape for the rest of the hand OOP. If we bet the flop, we may get called by worse, but many times those hands that call will leverage position to take it away from us later in the hand...

I was thinking I'd flat flop as well, but I think the above arguments are solid.

And yeah, it seems like we can fold the turn. We have about 5% equity vs higher flushes with our two outs, and that's not enough IO (we'd need to win 2.25 x 20)

What is your reason for betting out turn?