I'd check the flop. Youre credibly checking bad air hands here and your hand has 2 streets of value at most. As played I'm not quite sure what happened as the hand looks messed up but I think there are tons of plausible draws in his range that call the flop. I'd prob c/c and reeval river especially since he your hand has such good equity.
Aug. 16, 2013 | 12:14 a.m.
I try to maximize both. If you're likely to get raised when bluffing a hand that has good overall equity vs your opponents range and you now have to fold thats a strong factor towards not betting or taking a different line. A lot of times there is a happy medium where you can be aggressive but are unlikely that you're opponent will raise.
Aug. 16, 2013 | 12:08 a.m.
Betting full pot on the turn is super suspicious to me so I'd probably call based on that since its so marginal based on c/ring flop a bunch and this seems like a board people like to c/r often.
Aug. 16, 2013 | 12:03 a.m.
Honestly, I think you should fold because its completely unreasonable for him to do what he's doing with any other hand but TT. 10 seconds and then shove should severely discount a Ten. It is one combo though so it makes it tough.
Aug. 15, 2013 | 11:58 p.m.
"Agree with everything overbet56 said, particularly that you shouldn't be 3betting this at this stack depth unless you also are 3betting as a bluff somewhat regularly."
You and overbet want to expand on this viewpoint? Is it simply that if our 3bet range is too narrow we face too many situations where we always have one pair or less and can face very bluffy unexploitable ranges postflop?
June 26, 2013 | 10:02 p.m.
He has plenty of 9's in his range. A9,K9,Q9,J9,T9,89 are very likely pre. Im not saying this is solid play but I'd expect this. This board actually totally crushes you as far as the massive amount of nut hand combos he has and your range is basically capped. So that being said I don't think this board is a bet. I would probably only bet air and be super exploitable but I think GTO wise you should check this flop and call down if he fires 3.
As played I mean you have the 2nd best hand you could possibly have on this board so it would be a little absurd to fold but at the same time the way he plays it really, really seems like the nuts. I'd probably fold even though its so absurdly un nash.
June 21, 2013 | 12:16 a.m.
You can make some Bayesian inferences from his stats. i.e. its likely a guy who is lag pre with a high cbet has an aggressive c/r%.
He has a fair amount of good hands in his range, 77,44,A7,A4, 65s, 6dxd which you have a small blocker. But there are a lot of combos of fds. He also misses the flop a large amount of the time so he may be tempted to c/r lighter.
I'd discount A7 and A4 as I think you have to weight some that he'd c/r to a larger size and not shove river and rather make a less than pot bet. I'd also discount a set to with the same river logic. 65 and 6dxd make perfect sense however you have to discount some as these sometimes do not c/r the flop. You are beating all missed fds, which also you have to discount some as they reasonably could c/c flop and may choose to give up on river.
It's a really tough spot. This is the middle top side of your range. I am also a little suspicious of the bet size. It's not very likely you have 6 so it makes sense for him to want to bluff shove here. It also is not that likely he has a 6, so his thought process could also be "If I shove it looks really bluffy." His bet size on the turn is also a little fishy to me. The board is not that scary yet he bet really big. If hes first level here he'd prob want to bet big to make it look like he's strong.
I think given its the top side of your range, that this player seems aggro, there is sensible air in his range, and there is a good thought process for bluffing I call. Very close though. Thanks for posting.
June 20, 2013 | 5:53 p.m.
I don't like the flop check. You're deep and have to build a pot. You kind of have the deck crippled here but people are still going to call a fair amount with i.e. low pps, Tx, gutshots, oesds, AQ. So bet the flop.
Same concept on turn, definitely raise. Now that you've gotten to this point you absolutely have to raise. Your hand kind of looks like the nuts but chances are v2 has something pretty strong and v1 has Qx or some draw.
June 20, 2013 | 5:40 p.m.
Theres really no way you can justify a 3bet here. There are tons of stronger hands you can't cc pre that you should 3bet over this one. And this guy doesn't seem to justify a huge 3bet % from the SB.
The flop is good, you're not getting too many folds but you can turn a lot of draws and draw to two pair. This isn't a great place to c/c because you're going to get blown off your hand too much and a good card for you (5) is going to be a bluff killer.
Turn I just c/f.
June 20, 2013 | 5:35 p.m.
I really dont like your flop float but as played id jam the river. It's going to be almost impossible for him to put you on the bluff and this small bet makes me skew his range to thinner value. I think if you feel like he could c/r this flop as a bluff too much id make a small flop 3bet.
June 19, 2013 | 3:01 a.m.
I would snap fold the turn. I think you're winning maybe 10% of the time and then you can also get bluffed out or sucked out on with very little equity vs hands that are beating you. I don't think playing a sidepot with v1 has that much value here.
June 18, 2013 | 5:20 p.m.
I would highly recommended not switching. This is coming from a guy who did. Deep stack play is much different than short stack play, and takes a lot of time to get used to. But more importantly the thought processes of HU SNG regs tend to be much different than that of cash players. I had played for years and still had very little idea wtf anyone was thinking while in cash I had a great grasp over thought processes. It simply is a pretty terrible game to switch to if you're coming from a cash background.
June 18, 2013 | 4:27 p.m.
I think because most of his fd's will have overs you will give those a big discount as far as weighting it in his range since you'll see flop raise a lot at this point.
I imagine turn shove is very slightly +EV but you are basically turning your hand into a bluff. I would expect him to have AK a lot or a random Tx he 3betted pre as a bluff. But he very well could have AA-QQ.
I'd check the turn and give up or bet a blank river.