OpenFoldBTN's avatar

OpenFoldBTN

10 points

Hi, great video. Have a question about hand at 16:38, AQhh on 3hKhTc board. If called flop, I think you say you were planning on shoving most turns, any examples of possible turns that you wouldnt shove turn? Also, you said you picked that sizing cause he can shove worse draws, are u usually bet/calling on those types of situations?

July 16, 2014 | 7:20 p.m.

Raphael, thanks for your comment and sorry for my late reply, ive been kinda traveling and my laptop broke.

I dont think that preflop is way too loose. I think its ok to squeeze this hand some % of the time. AJs i would just call. 

I agree that im far away from my top range, and that i cant have top sets. But I definitely think that he could have some bluffs here. He has a wide range preflop, and i dont think its off to think that he could be bluffing here. This is a big pot so villain should be more incline to bluff and fight for it. Now, i dont have a clear read on him and i dont know how wide his check-raising range is... And that was a reason why i ended up just folding the hand, but i was kinda wondering if shoving is a good option. I did consider that he could have KK+ but i didnt think that he would risk playing those hands in a posible 4 way pot and being OOP.

I am not sure if i like checkin back flop but your points are definitely valid. 

I am going to keep looking into this and will come back with a deeper answer, i just got back home and wanted to reply this asap.

And no, im not brazilian.

June 30, 2014 | 7:15 p.m.

So this is a hand I played
in the main event of LAPT- Brasil. Buy in was $2k.

Reads in villain: was kinda
aggro, opening pots and calling pretty much every time he got 3bet. Not much dynamic between us.

Blinds 300- 600- with 50
ante.

Stacks: Me 55k ish, Villain covers, and CO 25k.

Villain opens to 1.2k in
MP, hj call, CO call and me on the btn with AJo decided to squeeze to 4.6k.
villain calls, hj folds and CO calls.

Flop (16,350): 872 with two
diamonds.

Villain checks, CO checks
and I bet 7.2k, villain makes it 17.2k, CO (that had only 20k left behind) folds

 

My analysis:

Pot preflop: 16350

Pot postflop: 7200 + 17200
= 24400

Total pot = 40750

 

·         Minimun defense frequency: (1-A)% (sean lefort 2nd vid)

 Let A = B / (B+1)

Let B = ratio of what
villain is risking to what he can win (betsize / potsize)

Villain raises 17,200 to
win a total of 40750 so 17,200 / 40750 = 0.42

Minimun defense frequency =
58%

·     Villain is raising us 10k so we need to call 10k to win 40750
so 10,000/50750 = 19.7% which would be our direct equity
needed to continue with our hand. Can we ever float here instead of shoving
with this good odds??

·         Break even folding frequency: (this formula is in Sthephen
Chidwick video: Introduction to Live MTTs)

84,000 is the amout we
would have if villain folds.

(1-x) is villain calling
frequency

117,000 is the total of the
pot if we get called.

0.25 is our equity in the
hand if called

and 43,000 is the amout we
would have if we just fold.

This is the range i think
villain would call our shove:
(Ax8x,Ax7x,JJ-77,Tx9x,8x7x,6x5x,22,AdQd-Ad9d,Ad7d-Ad3d,KdJd,QdTd)

 84,000x + (1-x)(117,000 *
0.25) = 43,000

84,000x + (1-x)(29250) =
43000

84000x – 29250x + 29250 =
43000

54750x = 13750

X= 25%

I need villain to fold 25%
in order for my shove to breakeven.

 So if we add a few bluffs
to villains range that would fold to our shove like KQ, QJ, JT, AQ, AT. I think
it would be a profitable shove. 

So i kinda want to shove... What do you think about my
squeeze?, Is calling the flop raise
an option?? checking flop back?

Thanks for all the help.


June 22, 2014 | 5:23 p.m.

A8o hand (34:00)

I agree that the board usually hits bbs range more than PFR but with under 20bbs, are you usually flatting those hands that hit that board? I assume you are gonna be shoving pre all hands that hit sets on that board, same with overpairs. That would only leave 87 and 65 as your "nut" hands on that board which looks like what you are repping with the small raise but are you usually defending those with your stack size?

With that in mind, what you think about c/shoving instead of the small raise? if it works, which I assume would happen a lot, you´re increasing your stack in almost 40% and also, I may be levelling too much but maybe there is also the small chance that he can hero you w/ Ax or alike because your shove would look a lot like a draw instead of a made hand?

Also the recap of the 88 hand from previous video is a very tough spot that most time people are going in auto pilot in similar situations with "oh that's insta call or damn didn't expect this other guy to shove, I guees I have to fold now .." and you get some surprises once you start breaking down the hand afterwards with math and the given ranges.

Great series and looking forward to what you think about this. Thanks! 


April 23, 2014 | 4:33 p.m.

In the first hand k2dd, where you c/r because his range is clearly capped (agree that if you choose to continue with the hand is better to c/r than to donk or c/call), but by doing that arent you now capping your own range where most of the times you can only continue with the hand with the nut flush if he is sick enough to shove over your c/r? Am I just levelling too much or do you think it makes some sense? thanks and great video.



Feb. 4, 2014 | 7:10 p.m.

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