Buddy Garrity

How about sizing .. the problem with 80 % pot on turn and overshoving river is how low a flush do we want to take this line with? Also should we be raising or calling on the flop with more of our nut flushes ... assuming we should mix?

I'm flatting 66 on the button near 100 % even vs a 3x .... i don't think games have gotten to the point where that is incorrect but maybe i'm wrong. 44 i also call at a solid frequency depending on the blinds .

I wasn't 100 % sure of my turn play ... i figured my range was strong enough (perhaps it isn't) that i could bet 100 % of hands and get some protection with the rare 99 and also hands like this - also keeping my range uncapped and allowing me to make a bigger polarizing bet on the river w/ my nutted hands + some bluffs.

I'm not sure if this is exploitable by some aggressive turn check raise strategy on this particular board. Also i'm not sure what hands i would bluff on runouts facing a check on river.

What do you think his range is on the river ... does he have any bluffs? If his range is KK+ with the odd JJ does that make AJ the best bluff?

With this turn bet sizing i'd be betting my whole range .. so i do have a lot of value combos considering i have JJ 44 87s at some frequency at well depending on the blinds. I think his river bet is almost always an overpair with the only possible nutted value combo JJ - this is why i thought my weakest Jx would be best bluffs

What is ur stack off range on the flop this deep? I've been flatting whole range to raise otf as it just seems easiest to balance in game. I agree we are probably 2 high up in our range to fold in theory.

Things i have been considering:

Is he taking this line with many non nut flushes .. maybe AcAx is better bluff catcher ... but on the other hand bare Ac even though he doesn't have many combos might be large part of bluffing range. Also if he knew we were calling AcAx and maybe AcQx instead of a hand like this he'd be incentivized to take line with weak flushes.

Also should i incorporate a flatting range preflop with his raise size and our stack depth. I just 3bet out of the sb atm and with the 6c being the turn not the river i think a good portion of my range is the nut flush.

Agreed ... i'm not sure we want to have a check raising range on this river ... but he does have some busted draws, weaker pairs that might turn into bluff  and Ax spades hands on river. Also i'm not sure if he is folding As Offsuit Broadway on the flop. Still it isn't very appealing since he is most likely drawing or bluff catching OTT

Only 76 hands so not much to go on ... WWSF of 36 % went to showdown of 10 % and he hadn't raised a cbet yet.

On the flop i thought about check calling but he seemed to a loose calling range so i didn't want his overcards to see turn and river for at most one stab if he bets flop gives up. Against a tighter player i would be checking a lot more. I also raise all my sets on this board UTG might be little 2 loose but i'm not completely vulnerable on this board. Also betting gives me more options on turns like these and helps my board coverage for betting the flop. Once i bet the flop turn bet seems standard or no?

Firstly assuming his range for getting to river is.

AhQh,AhTh,KhQh,KhTh,AhQd,AhQs,AhQc,

50%JJ,66,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h,QhTh,AhTc,AhTd,AhTs,

And my range for getting to the river

66 22 Th9h 9h8h 8h7h AhTh,Ah9h,Ah8h,Ah7h,Ah6h,Ah5h,Ah4h,Ah3h,Ah2h ,KhQh,KhTh,QhTh,

50 %AhQh,AhJc,AhJd,AhJs

25 % JJ

If we assume he bets all flushes and 100 % of his high cards ... then i only have a flush 46.7 % of the time when he bets. So based on this i should be calling some sets right?

I'm have very little practice with this, so please check my work and look at assumptions. I think these assumptions are pretty favorable for me having a flush on the river as i don't raise any of them on the flop, but they do assume that he is calling 50 % preflop and not raising flop with AhTx.

This is what i thought initially, i was wondering if the fact that all his bluffing hands most likely have the Ah and thus shrink the flush part of my range a lot changes things at all. Likewise if i have the nuts i block almost all of his bluffs here .. does this have any impact.

Thanks

Nick seems like you expect him to barrell turn with strong hands/strong draws so his range isn't really polarized right?  It is just really weak draws. Based on this isn't it better to bet bigger still so he folds, unless you think you will play river better than him w/ KJ ... don't see either player betting river much (could be wrong) so not sure how much that comes into play.

I agree w/ the QQ vs JJ, i meant that the button is still gonna overcall with a lot of Qx with pot odds despite being quite confused. So are you folding the Qs you check flop with to this action? 

Isn't the button is gonna do most of the defending ... what are you doing with your KQ and QTs. Seems like you don't need to take it here.  Blocking JJ is something but isn't the button gonna have lot of Qs. 

shp it in, ul mate

Jason, 16:30 mark where he shoves aq I feel like hes accomplishing 2 things:  protecting his hand vs sbs flush draws (making him pay max price giving no implied odds although a bet in the long run makes plenty of money this is the more low variance play) and  polarizing his range vs sbs worse aces and original raisers under pairs.

  Thought this was kind of a cool play and was surprised you didn't like it. I mean seems like the bigger stack in sb cant have any boats or 7s in his range and it was going to be tough to fold to original raiser anyways. Plus if this is the same table as before he has shown tendencies to shove and overshove which could weigh into a decision for a hero call and this def looks weaker to original raiser if hes sitting there w/ KK than say 2150 or something. He is obviously polarized and one might think "he wouldn't shove any nutted hands here and get flush draws to fold" and take nuts out of his range leaving only aq and fds.  Plus future image implications! What you think you still hate it? 

Seems like on a spade or ace Parker will be bluffing a lot more (in perception and reality) so he needs to be value betting thinner.

For Parker: With a 6, I understand doing this protect your range which a lot of it will be giving up on the river. In a vacuum however do you think the EV from when he turns 3's, 5's, spades', and middle pairs into a bluff is more than the EV from when he calls down with weaker hands (seems like by ur assumptions you also expect opponent to call down a lot with hands with showdown).

Also, do you have a betting range on this river?

Would at least be nice to be able to pause videos for more than 4 minutes, without getting video error and having to reload video and find where you were. As part of the ADHD generation i generally can't watch a whole video without being distracted by something else and pausing the video at least once.