Suzzezive
2 points
LJ: 30250
HJ: 28391
CO: 20274
BN: 122561
SB: 16406
BB: 20861
UTG: 22672
UTG1: 24260
UTG2: 30639 (Hero)
HJ: 28391
CO: 20274
BN: 122561
SB: 16406
BB: 20861
UTG: 22672
UTG1: 24260
UTG2: 30639 (Hero)
We are in 350/700/85.
UTG1 35bb
Hero 44bb
LJ 43bb
Middle stage of the tournament. Far away of itm.
UTG1 35bb
Hero 44bb
LJ 43bb
Middle stage of the tournament. Far away of itm.
Preflop
(1050)
(9 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
J
UTG folds, UTG1 raises to 1400, Hero calls 1400, LJ calls 1400, HJ calls 1400, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls 700
UTG folds, UTG1 raises to 1400, Hero calls 1400, LJ calls 1400, HJ calls 1400, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls 700
I hadn't played many hands with them but I know UTG1 is pretty tight, something like 18/8 in over 110 hands and he has a raise first in early of 7%.
If I 3bet vs this player, the times he 4bet shove, I will not have an easy call of 30bb with JJ vs a guy who seems tight.
Well, 3bet is right most of the times, but here i liked to flat.
If I 3bet vs this player, the times he 4bet shove, I will not have an easy call of 30bb with JJ vs a guy who seems tight.
Well, 3bet is right most of the times, but here i liked to flat.
Flop
(7350)
3
9
6
(5 Players)
BB checks,
UTG1 checks,
Hero checks,
LJ bets 2100,
HJ folds,
BB folds,
UTG1 folds,
Hero raises to 6300,
LJ calls 4200
Well, in this point, after UTG1 checks, I think I have the best hand most of the times. TT+ would bet most of the times in this spot vs 2 players, and sometimes maybe check/raise. AQ+ and some middle pairs like 77-88 would be playing check/call in this spot. Maybe ATs-AJo+, too.
LJ is a fishy, 25/8 in 95 hands and doing some random moves preflop in the last hands. His range has any broadway suited and non suited plus all the Ax suited and some Ax non suited. Middle and low pairs too.
My fear here is play for stacks vs 33, 99 and 66, so I liked to check/raise this spot the times LJ bet. I will know if UTG1 is slowplaying sets or QQ+ after this point.
If LJ check, I will bet 60% of the turns (The turns without clubs, Q, K neither A), and x/c all the other cards to x/f most of the rivers.
If after LJ bets and UTG1 calls, I will reraise. These times I think he will play for stacks with TT+ and sets and would fold his overpairs and middle pairs like 77-88 or less. It´s a risk, I know, because when he reraise allin my x/r, I will be facing sets and TT+, but I think x/c vs 2 players with overpair is give away my equity and x/r flop to do a fold whit those stacks is not good.
But UTG1 folds and vs a weak player like LJ I think the best line is bet turn and bet allin river.
LJ is a fishy, 25/8 in 95 hands and doing some random moves preflop in the last hands. His range has any broadway suited and non suited plus all the Ax suited and some Ax non suited. Middle and low pairs too.
My fear here is play for stacks vs 33, 99 and 66, so I liked to check/raise this spot the times LJ bet. I will know if UTG1 is slowplaying sets or QQ+ after this point.
If LJ check, I will bet 60% of the turns (The turns without clubs, Q, K neither A), and x/c all the other cards to x/f most of the rivers.
If after LJ bets and UTG1 calls, I will reraise. These times I think he will play for stacks with TT+ and sets and would fold his overpairs and middle pairs like 77-88 or less. It´s a risk, I know, because when he reraise allin my x/r, I will be facing sets and TT+, but I think x/c vs 2 players with overpair is give away my equity and x/r flop to do a fold whit those stacks is not good.
But UTG1 folds and vs a weak player like LJ I think the best line is bet turn and bet allin river.
Turn
(19950)
3
9
6
K
(2 Players)
Hero bets 7399,
LJ calls 7399
River
(34748)
3
9
6
K
A
(2 Players)
Hero bets 15455, and is all in,
LJ folds
Final Pot
Hero
wins 35513
Dec. 30, 2013 | 4:14 p.m.
Well, I think it is a good fold.
In this sequence, the times you are doing a 5bet Allin, HJ would have a narrow range to do profitable call with QQ+ vs 2 allin players, with the risks of be eliminated in an early stage without antes. So the times you are shoving and HJ calls, you will play a spot vs the narrow HJ range plus BTN 4betshove range. It´s easy to see that most of this times your hand will be dominated, at least, by one of the other ones.
And the times HJ folds, I think you will be facing a BTN range of 88+,AQ+ and vs this range, you´ll have only 47% of equity. Not bad in some stages of the tournament, nearly a flip, but if you think in the narrow of the ranges in this stage, and the possibility to play vs 2 ranges, an or/fold will be the best choice most of the times.
In this sequence, the times you are doing a 5bet Allin, HJ would have a narrow range to do profitable call with QQ+ vs 2 allin players, with the risks of be eliminated in an early stage without antes. So the times you are shoving and HJ calls, you will play a spot vs the narrow HJ range plus BTN 4betshove range. It´s easy to see that most of this times your hand will be dominated, at least, by one of the other ones.
And the times HJ folds, I think you will be facing a BTN range of 88+,AQ+ and vs this range, you´ll have only 47% of equity. Not bad in some stages of the tournament, nearly a flip, but if you think in the narrow of the ranges in this stage, and the possibility to play vs 2 ranges, an or/fold will be the best choice most of the times.
Dec. 30, 2013 | 4:11 p.m.
Hi Stephen: At first, thanks for your feedback. And thanks to Aleks, Cairy & Tom, too, by your excellent analysis of the hand.
I´ve been reading all the comments along the last days, and working along this hand, and yes, like Stephen said, the maths for the fold equity was not right in my original post. I need more than the 31% villain folds on the turn to get a shove with a positive EV.
Although now I´m pretty sure that is uncommon villain would folds more than 55% of the times if his range has 33-99-JJ+ and some combos of T8/QT/J9 and flushes. Even 30% of the times is too ambitious.
I´ll keep this in mind next time I try make a semi-bluff at the turn with my draws.
I´ve been reading all the comments along the last days, and working along this hand, and yes, like Stephen said, the maths for the fold equity was not right in my original post. I need more than the 31% villain folds on the turn to get a shove with a positive EV.
Although now I´m pretty sure that is uncommon villain would folds more than 55% of the times if his range has 33-99-JJ+ and some combos of T8/QT/J9 and flushes. Even 30% of the times is too ambitious.
I´ll keep this in mind next time I try make a semi-bluff at the turn with my draws.
Dec. 26, 2013 | 1:08 a.m.
BN: 18505
SB: 17027
BB: 20000
UTG: 16449
UTG1: 27491
LJ: 23570
HJ: 14210 (Hero)
CO: 20000
SB: 17027
BB: 20000
UTG: 16449
UTG1: 27491
LJ: 23570
HJ: 14210 (Hero)
CO: 20000
Villain is 20/16 in 390 hands. 3bet 6% Fto3bet 55%. Call3bet 11% 4bet33%
Raise first 17/32/29/57/57
OR MP: 33-44-66-A9-AJ
Regular of midstakes.
Raise first 17/32/29/57/57
OR MP: 33-44-66-A9-AJ
Regular of midstakes.
Preflop
(90)
(8 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
J
UTG folds, UTG1 folds, LJ raises to 150, Hero raises to 390, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, LJ calls 240
UTG folds, UTG1 folds, LJ raises to 150, Hero raises to 390, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, LJ calls 240
Villain has an open raise in LJ of 32% and he´s moving a lot in this early stage so i think in this situation is better 3bet IP than cold call to avoid a possible squeeze and because he fold more than 50%. Anyway cc could be fine too, i think.
Flop
(870)
J
9
3
(2 Players)
LJ checks,
Hero bets 400,
LJ raises to 1260,
Hero calls 860
Std cbet in 3betpot with top pair and villan check/raise. I never fold this spot, but if i reraise i think i can´t follow if villan reraise again, and vs hands like QsTs/QTo, QsKs, KsTs, QQ, KK, AA(unlikely) and sets i have less than 50% of equity (only vs KTs 49%), so my plan now is bet/call and reevaluate turn with top pair + backdoor nuts flush draw.
Turn
(3390)
J
9
3
K
(2 Players)
LJ bets 2400,
Hero raises to 12560, and is all in,
LJ calls 10160
Here is the crux of this hand:
Villan bets strong (70%) so here I:
A) Fold. Maybe the most common line, but I think it´s so much weak.
B) Call. I have 8 outs for nuts flush draw, 2 outs for trips and 3 outs for double pair. At the end, i only have 7 solid outs, for the nuts flush draw. Trips and Double Pairs not guaranteed me has the best hand at river, only a strong hand with showdown value.
C)Reraise. I don´t like because If Villain shoves, i would have a very difficult decision, most of the times having to do a call with a weak hand and a draw.
D) Reaise Allin: This is the option i thought. And here is my reasoning:
My hand has 20% of equity vs sets, 25% vs AK, 15% vs QTo and now i can discard KsTs, QsKs, QsTs (unlikely). So i value a 20% of equity for my hand, from turn to river. I decide to shove because I believe that I have more than 31% of Fold Equity. If this is true, my move is EV+ because at less, 31% of the times I will win this spot when villain folds, but the times villain call, I will will 20% of the times.
In my consideration I think he more than 31% of the times he will fold hands like TT, QQ, AJ, AK AA, and sometimes bottom sets like 33 (at first, for the possibility I would have a better set and then for the texture of the board and the stage of the tournament with very deep stacks). So i hope he call with JJ, KK, and nothing more, because the only draw he can have here is QsTs, improbably and he will never fold.
Villain tanks 2 minutes and finally calls.
Villan bets strong (70%) so here I:
A) Fold. Maybe the most common line, but I think it´s so much weak.
B) Call. I have 8 outs for nuts flush draw, 2 outs for trips and 3 outs for double pair. At the end, i only have 7 solid outs, for the nuts flush draw. Trips and Double Pairs not guaranteed me has the best hand at river, only a strong hand with showdown value.
C)Reraise. I don´t like because If Villain shoves, i would have a very difficult decision, most of the times having to do a call with a weak hand and a draw.
D) Reaise Allin: This is the option i thought. And here is my reasoning:
My hand has 20% of equity vs sets, 25% vs AK, 15% vs QTo and now i can discard KsTs, QsKs, QsTs (unlikely). So i value a 20% of equity for my hand, from turn to river. I decide to shove because I believe that I have more than 31% of Fold Equity. If this is true, my move is EV+ because at less, 31% of the times I will win this spot when villain folds, but the times villain call, I will will 20% of the times.
In my consideration I think he more than 31% of the times he will fold hands like TT, QQ, AJ, AK AA, and sometimes bottom sets like 33 (at first, for the possibility I would have a better set and then for the texture of the board and the stage of the tournament with very deep stacks). So i hope he call with JJ, KK, and nothing more, because the only draw he can have here is QsTs, improbably and he will never fold.
Villain tanks 2 minutes and finally calls.
River
(28510)
J
9
3
K
J
(2 Players)
Final Pot
LJ has
3
3
Hero has
A
J
LJ
wins 28510
Dec. 24, 2013 | 2:45 a.m.
Load more
If you think SB´s range is TT+/AQo you have a simple fold by ICM.
http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#Mzfa
To have a profitable call with AKo you need an SB´s range like this: 22+,A9+,KJs+,KQo.
http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#wTUx
I think is not frecuent see, in this stage, players doing an open4bet shove of 40bb with a 13% of his range.
If SB´s range has hands like 99 or AJs, you still have a pretty fold with AK considering the payout structure of this tourney.
http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#qHwu
Dec. 30, 2013 | 6:32 p.m.