SweetStruggle

In my experiencing guys capable of over betting for value are also capable of over betting as a bluff. We are at the top of our range, all draws bricked, and everything else we should consider points to a call. The ONLY piece of info we have is that caddyshack caught him over betting twice and he had value both times. There is enough information at our disposal to question whether the that piece of data alone should be considered the word of god, to warrant an easy call.

I feel like the flop play is bad. CO is going to be cautious 3 way due to the cold caller and is going to check back a TON. Sure it is great if he bets and SB goes nuts with AA/AK, however that's a perfect storm of events you are looking for. Furthermore if SB does have AA/AK then he isn't going anywhere if you start betting anyway. I just think going for a CR is too fancy for this spot and that betbetbet is the way to go in terms of maximising value.

Preflop is a snap defend. I would go as far as to say its a mistake not to 3 way.

I dislike a flop cr on this texture 3 way because the button's cbet range is going to be a lot tighter.

I don't hate a turn lead, however he is going to have tons of pair+draw type hands that are going to peel at least once, so if i did lead it would be with the intention of leading large again on most rivers and possibly even over betting some run outs. I am not in love with it though because it is a hard line to control in terms of having a good grasp of where we stand by the river.

I actually see nothing wrong with cf the flop. Saw the flop for a great price and i dont feel the need to have to continue on too many boards at all to make the call profitable.

I too vote for the 5B. Your explanation of the pre flop dynamics are great and it seems like you have a good grasp if how this guy play. I don't think you need to over think the situation purely for balance' sake. He is value heavy and you have a spewy sticky image. 5B and get it in.

That said, as played, i see your dilemma otr. Pretty hard to get a call from worse and equally as difficult to see him try to bluff vs our range. 

I think you win this pot 99.7% of the time as played. Players like this never EVER have a flush. He would block bet Kx and possibly even Qx. He might call Qx or with other SDV if you bet a normal size, so i like the overbet because it gives us the pot every time.

This hand just comes down to how he plays post. The rec type players with these stats come in 2 groups at this level when looking at this decision. One group will check back this river with 9T because he thinks you always have a hand and you will never fold. They tried their luck and are now done with it. The second group doesn't care what you have and knows the only way he wins the pot is to shove, so he shuts his eyes and does so. In these situations i don't over think the situation. Which group does he fall into? Then i either call or fold.

If i don't have any info, and i play the hand this way (i wouldnt), then i fold this river always, because in my experience the amount of players in the passive group far outweighs those that have the heart to bluff here

I see the nuts whenever i raise here. They get me every time.

A lot of talk about what villains range is, however lets consider what our perceived range is by the river. If he is bluffing, what part of our range does he realistically think folds? Unless he has you tagged as sticky with tt-66 and 5x then imo, his river bet range is all value. 

Dislike. These shorties can do the most random nonsensical stuff. Absolutely never folding an over pair here. I go betbetbet almost always, however when i do elect to start CCing it is vs the guys i know will just go off trying to get me to fold some weak sdv

I always felt that anything in a poker related book was out of date. By the time these things get written and published, we have all moved onto bigger and better things.

I like a b4 pre for value and expect to be called by a wide range this deep. Such a great spot IP to punish regs that are not sure why they are calling but do so because they have lots of money behind and we are 4b bluffing a fair amount. These kind of pots also get interesting and are fun to play.

I think oblioo has made a super strong case for folding and i agree. The assumption that such a player would even recognise that he has the nut blocker is fairly optimistic to begin with imo. With that knowledge as well as the combo discussing above, and i think it's definately a fold spot

This isn't your every day minraise and if you don't see that dynamic i guess there isn't much value in discussing it. 

98 is much more likely to slowplay to get the fish in, because there are not many cards that would kill his action. The same can't be said for sets.

Forget about his stats for a second and try to work out what his thought process is, in regards to if he had AA, would he really play it like this? Does he expect you to snap JJ here? How about the 3rd player? 

AA far as his range goes, he never has 22-JJ, has all combos of AK and AA-QQ and possible the odd SC that just got frisky.

I actually think its a pretty tough spot, but i am definitely not folding unless i have some pretty solid evidence that he can play AA like this. At worst, calling gives me that information (not that that is a good reason to call - but a nice consolation)

I think this line does the opposite of what you are trying to achieve (punish guys who bet weak Ax or float too much). Do you except AT to bet/call the turn? Or check turn then bet/call river? What other hands are you putting into your turn CR range that would make anyone consider that?

The line ensures you make the absolute minimum vs worse value hands. It also ensures you get stacked every time you are beat. Sure you might pick off the random float turn and bluff stab turn line, but overall it doesn't make much sense to me. It makes a lot of sense to me with 23 or 78. 

Your sizing is also pretty bad.

My problem with this hand is that we know that raising 6x and 77-99 is not optimal, and as a result discount them as part of his range, forgetting that even though most people are playing somewhat 'well' there are p[people that don't. The fact i had never seen this guy before allowed me to give him a wider range on the flop and turn and as a result i called. The river paired the 4 and he jammed, giving me a trivial fold. A

After the fact i have to have 6x as a big part of his flop raising range , however it's a pretty shitty spot OTT in play. 

Thanks for the comments guys.

In these spots, vs most opponents my plan is to get 2 sts of value, and i play accordingly vs villains range by checking either the flop or the turn. There is an auxiliary benefit to this approach, as every now and again i may get 3 sts from someone who decides that my range is capped and does something silly as a result.

The theoretical assumptions and assertions outlined above are all sound and hold water. The problem is that is today's games, especially at zoom, you are just not going to see many people playing well enough to bluff this river at a frequency anywhere near optimal. They know they should, but always convince themselves that HERO is never going to fold KK and as result don't pull the trigger. Let's be honest, we all do the same.

We see Qx/7x almost always in this spot.

Well played.