TheChosenOne

18:15 76s, If we're raising the turn and follow up on the river with this hand, I assume we're never raising the turn and checking back on the river with any hand. My question is about villain's perspective. He obviously had a made hand, since the only draw he could call with (QJ) got there. Isn't he making a huge mistake calling the turn and folding the river, since he will never get to show down with a made hand?

I wouldn't bet this turn, without betting this river. That said, I think I'd just check behind this flop.

Definitely not folding the river after we take a c/c, c/c line with a hand this strong. In his eyes you can still have some weak Q, so he can value bet AQ here.

Given the line he took, you'll almost always have the best hand here. I would play it the same on all streets.

You're probably getting hero called pretty light here if you're c/r the river since your line looks so incredible. Most ppl just bet/bet/bet with their sets. Also because of the board pairing river you now can have less strong hands for value.

You're not guaranteed to play a bloated pot deep OOP. EP and BTN have pretty weak ranges here. EP probably opens too much and therefore BTN should 3bet pretty wide for value. Since he didn't, his range is pretty weak. If EP folds, BTN will have a hard time calling. And even if EP calls, BTN can still fold. He's not playing only versus EP, but also versus your range.

Ppl are saying c/c turn, but is no one c/c this flop?

I wouldn't fold here. I either jam the turn, or call turn and call most rivers. He's repping only 65 and A5 and he could be playing 22 and 33 like this.

Given the strength of his range, you don't have enough fe. Call and reevaluate turn. Your odds are good enough.

Wow i feel stupid. Until now i thought preflop went he 3bet and i call. Thats why i put his 3bet in the reads. Must have been tired.

Anyone like a bluff in case he did 3bet, or still not? As played i agree with the check back.

no pretty much readless

There are 3 combo's of AJ and 3 combo's of JJ which he can all have. If he's only raising these hands, you need him to raise JJ at least 1/3 of the time to call here.
So I guess it's fine to call.

I don't mind an overbet. I think it makes it a little harder for him to call. But I'm not entirely sure whether it has a higher EV.

I don't see people folding hands like 88/TT/JJ even without the heart. Problem with c/f is that villain might bet JJ for value/protection if you check to him. Also you allow him to stab with all of his floats. I'd rather bet for thin value here and check the river.

I don't see any merit in a small 4bet pre. What would that accomplish? As far as your call seeming weak, I think this is a good spot to flat KK+. There's no reason to push SB out of the pot with these hands.

What's your plan by betting this flop? I don't think we have enough FE to just one and done cbet here. So we would have to fire multiple barrels if we cbet here.

Sample is not huge, couple of 100 hands. But I'm not planning to get it in here. AQo is in my 4bet/fold range.

I just tend to think people bet a little bit bigger when they have a clear valuebet. With a K here people might worry that I fold too much if he bets too big. Of course this is not always correct and people do make these half pot bets with flushes. But without further information I'm weighting it more towards a medium value hand.

But I agree him being an unknown makes it a little less attractive. For all I know he might be a huge station not caring about what I represent.

Why do you think his range is too strong? Because of his sizings? Do you read the pot bet as strength? Why can't he have QT/KT/KQ/KJ?

I plugged in my range here. If we're only continuing with 2pair+ we're only continuing 17% of the time.

Around 11% open from UTG. Not sure what he's calling here. Didn't expect him to flat too often. If it's CO vs BTN he can have hands like AQs/KQs. In this scenario maybe JJ/QQ/AK and who knows what else. Maybe some speculative suited hands because we're a little bit deeper. But if he's only flatting JJ/QQ/AK my play is not good, since he will have AK the majority of the time.

Get him to fold a K or a bluff. Yes we beat a bluff, but we cannot call versus his betting range.

KQ now has to worry about KT and he almost never has it. The 9 is actually one of the best cards to bluff.

backdoor flush draw
HJ = Hijack, or MP

I'd call as well. Villain can have enough bluffs here, like AK/AT.