TheNumba1's avatar


2 points

he is indifferent to folding 100% of times -> you win the entire pot all the time (or have the EV of winning the pot all the time, no matter what he does). Thats the best case scenario in GTO. He may not lose any more money on the river, but loses all the money he invested so far. 

May 23, 2014 | 8:58 p.m.

Comment | TheNumba1 commented on Realizing equity

Would be interested in this as well. I have done similar research and assumed that you can realise 100% equity if calling a 3b ip. You have a range disadvantage but are in position. As long as ranges are quite wide and stacks >100bb deep, I guess these two asepcts even out. Once ranges get narrower, the range disadvantage is more important and you can realize less equity. Obviously, position gets more important when you are really deep. 

What do you think for calling a 3b oop like CO vs BTN or SB vs BB? Here you are in a range and positional disadvantage. I assumed something like 85-90%, does that make sense? 

May 22, 2014 | 8:26 a.m.

Agree, it is a weird line and c/cing turn and river is probably standard. Though I still kinda like my play. Assuming he would check behind blank rivers with his overpairs but calls the turn raise and doesn't turn them into a bluff, I make more money with c/r than with c/c. I lose the same amount against better hands if I c/f river. I dont really see hands that can call turn and have to bluff river, maybe Ahx but this looks like an extremely marginal turn call. 

May 21, 2014 | 9:07 a.m.

This was more an explo play than a balance play. Im not too often in this situation and villain was completely unknown. Also, I think my c/r turn is fairly balanced with some full houses and nut flushes which can value bet the river, some Ah bluffs and then some occasional medium flushes. The checking line on the river is no longer balanced, but I think few players will turn overpairs into a bluff here. 

May 21, 2014 | 9:01 a.m.

do you think he calls the river with an overpair? otherwise jaming makes no sense. 

May 21, 2014 | 8:58 a.m.

Hand History | TheNumba1 posted in NLHE: 500 Zoom medium flush 200bb deep
BN: $516.15
SB: $1130.61 (Hero)
BB: $1340.03
UTG: $654.69
HJ: $547.55
CO: $500
Preflop ($7.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $15, BB raises to $47.50, Hero calls $32.50
Flop ($102.50) 8 4 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $55, Hero calls $55
Turn ($212.50) 8 4 2 8 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $122.50, Hero raises to $350, BB calls $227.50
River ($912.50) 8 4 2 8 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $887.53, and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot
BB wins $902.20

May 20, 2014 | 5:40 p.m.

Thanks for sharing. 

It is surprising to me that your std. dev. is smaller in the bigger game, in my nlhe game my variance always rises when I move up. Could be due to sample size, or you play nittier when playing higher. 

Your VPP per hands are significantly lower than those on the official pokerstars site where they say you should make 0.66 vpp/h on plo100 and 1 vpp/h on plo200. 

Would be cool if we get some other inputs to compare. 

May 13, 2014 | 4:42 p.m.

Hi guys

Im very interested in some statistical numbers for midstakes PLO. Im playing NLHE and think about adding PLO to my game because it seems much easier to get SNE with PLO than NLHE.

How many VPPs per hand do you get in the 100,200 and 500 zoom games (or non-zoom games on similar stakes)?

Also, what do you think are average winrates and standard deviations in those games?


May 9, 2014 | 10:07 p.m.

I agree with both of you. I think we should definitely have a betting range here, but also strengthen our checking range by playing a mixed strategy. 

April 26, 2014 | 8:37 p.m.

Thanks for doing this analysis. The results obviously depend so much on your assumptions on earlier streets. I did a sim myself, but excluded raising on flop and turn as an option. His stats say that he raises extremely seldom in position postflop. 

Now, it makes perfect sense that in your scenario c/c is > c/f, as he raised a lot of his strong hands on previous streets. Under my assumptions, c/c was < c/f. 

I think this just shows that the spot is very close. 

April 26, 2014 | 8:35 p.m.

all hands are from zoom. nowadays i defend more than 60% 

April 25, 2014 | 3:57 p.m.

377k hands in total, 6.5k instances, 3.6k instances with vpip=true

April 25, 2014 | 2:58 p.m.

I think the solution is that the SB does profit vs you IF he opens. If you would analyse all situations including the times that SB openfolds, Im pretty sure you make profit on the BB.  

btw, I have -9bb/100 when SB opens and +65bb/100 when VPIP=Yes on NL200-1k

April 25, 2014 | 12:11 p.m.

Thanks, makes sense. 

April 25, 2014 | 11:55 a.m.

Can someone explain how you calculated the EV? And why you did these three sims? Is this how you generally calculate the EV of a multiway all-in?

April 25, 2014 | 11:11 a.m.

First ISTJ (on both tests)

April 24, 2014 | 11:02 a.m.

Not that I think its bad, but Im a little surprised you all agree on checking flop. I mean I do have TT and 99 in my range, so Im uncapped. Also, the argument for not betting because "too many runouts come where you are unhappy on the river and cap your range witch checking" does not hold in my eyes. Bad runouts come just as often if I take, the c/c line (that would be the advantage of c/r, to get it in on the turn) and I can avoid the part with capping my range by simply checking some very good hands on the river too. 

The main problem I have with the c/c line is that I think KJ and QJ type hands play way better when barreling. Do you think we can call a 2nd barrel on blank turn?    

April 20, 2014 | 10:47 a.m.

I think you should go for it. It's unlikely he has a flush, as I expect he bets most of them himself. Especially since he should put you on JT quite often and cannot expect you to bet with that hand but might get herocalled. So you have not much to lose, if he calls with JT you split, but he probably folds often enough to make this profitable.  

April 18, 2014 | 3:20 p.m.

Post | TheNumba1 posted in Chatter: PLO vs NLHE Mid-to Highstakes

For those players who have experience in both PLO and NLHE. Which game do you think is overall softer at 500 zoom? at 1k? Is it because there are more bad players or because regs are less good?

I know these games in NLHE but not in PLO. Would be interesting to hear some comments on that. 

April 17, 2014 | 8:47 a.m.

This hand is really interesting when doing a CREV sim. As Justin Oliver said, we dont really get called by worse when jamming. Also agree with you that it is a c/f once we check, we dont do good enough against his betting range (even if he includes some T8 or QJ bluffs). 

In my sim, I assumed he calls a jam with flushes, straights, sets and twopairs (Im unsure about AK, though this is only a very small part of his range), which results in a calling frequency of 60%. This is very close to the frequency he needs to prevent me from bluffing anytwo. If I check, I think he bets with sets+, AQ and all of his bluffs (T8,98,QJ) and checks behind worse two pairs and all top pairs. I have to fold against that range.

Under these circumstances, betting has an EV of 90 and check-folding an EV of 260, so checking seems to be clearly better. 

About the ranges: I assumed that he calls pre with ATo. Postflop I assumed he never raises and calls overs with bdfd on the flop. It is also interesting that he still does not have many flushes on the river, because the A and Q turn and rivercards block a lot of his potential overcards+bdfd combos. 

April 13, 2014 | 7:03 p.m.

Hi guys, Im new to PLO and had this situation a couple of times. Im in SB with lets say KKJ3ds and face a 3b from the BB 100bb deep vs unknown. Do you generally 4b or just flat? 

Does it matter if it is ds, ss or offsuite? I mean playability is nice when I flat, but on the other hand it gives me additional equity when it goes all-in. 

I realise that it depends a lot on the opponent, but Im just trying to find kind of a standard play vs unknown reg. 


April 8, 2014 | 3:44 p.m.

Hand History | TheNumba1 posted in NLHE: 1k zoom river decision
BN: $1061.25
SB: $1099.05 (Hero)
BB: $552.43
CO: $1000
Preflop ($15.00) (4 Players)
Hero was dealt T 9
CO raises to $25.50, BN folds, Hero raises to $85, BB folds, CO calls $59.50
Flop ($185.00) 6 9 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $105, CO calls $105
Turn ($395.00) 6 9 T A (2 Players)
Hero bets $240, CO calls $240
River ($875.00) 6 9 T A Q (2 Players)

April 7, 2014 | 12:17 p.m.

Thank you, I will do so. 

March 10, 2014 | 9:14 a.m.

Hi guys, I am a Mid to Highstakes NLHE player who is trying to learn plo now. Do you recommend using pokerjuice right from the start or should I first become familiar with Odds Oracle?

March 9, 2014 | 10:06 a.m.

Tom: Choosing a simple form of poker certainly makes sense if you really tried to solve a game. But I do think that there are a lot of interesting concepts that can be analyzed in no limit holdem as well. Since this is the most popular form of poker I would like to keep with that and not some exotic version.  

player1: Cool. Im definitely interested in reading your thesis (if it's possible to read it without being a computer science specialist myself). Maybe you could help me out a little bit if my bachelor thesis should go in this direction.

Jan. 12, 2014 | 6:14 a.m.

Hey guys, 

I managed to convince my professor that writing a bachelor thesis about game theoretically optimal poker will be interesting ;) 

I am studying economics at the University of Zurich, so Im not a programmer (the thesis shouldn't go in the computer-science direction)

As there are a lot of gto specialists here, do you have any proposals what specific topic would make a good bachelor thesis? The obvious choice seems to be analyzing toy games (as in MoP) and then make some conclusions about the real game. I also thought that about analyzing Snowie. 

What do you think would be interesting (and doable)?


Jan. 6, 2014 | 8:17 a.m.

Alright, thanks guys. I think it's a call and I usually would have called, don't really know why I folded, but ingame I was pretty sure to look at AA,KK. 

Aug. 26, 2013 | 8:07 p.m.

You're right, I hated to fold this hand and have never before made such a tight laydown, that's why I posted this hand here. I think my river range is only TT, AKs and maybe some combos of QJs and AQs. So is it better to call with the AK hands because we have blockers? I didn't see him valuebetting AK, that's why I folded but he probably has more bluffs in his range (KQ,AQ,AJ) than I thought he would. 

Aug. 26, 2013 | 9:28 a.m.

Hand History | TheNumba1 posted in NLHE: 500 zoom interesting hand
BN: $426.94
SB: $1589.88
BB: $544.99
UTG: $817.12
HJ: $1812.63 (Hero)
CO: $746.55
Preflop ($7.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T T
UTG raises to $12.50, Hero calls $12.50, CO raises to $57.50, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero calls $45
Flop ($135.00) A K T (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $99.15, Hero calls $99.15
Turn ($333.30) A K T 3 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $128.81, Hero calls $128.81
River ($590.92) A K T 3 2 (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $461.09, and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot
CO wins $588.12

Aug. 25, 2013 | 11:37 p.m.

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