I'm with Amit on this. Even without those stacks, I'm still quite shocked at the A2s shove from UTG+2.. with so many players to get through, are they all folding often enough to make this a profitable steal? Any call basically has you either dominated, or drawing to 3 aces..
March 21, 2014 | 1:57 p.m.
On the topic of whether one's overall strategy should involve attempting to increase ITM (make more cashes) or attempting to increase ROI (going for gold), I'm fully in accordance with everyone else here. But that's the thing: most people already know that they should be going for final table, and that that changes their bubble strategy.
But I certainly think there's merit to discussing just exactly when it's a good idea to fold-to-the-money or tighten up considerably at the bubble, because I believe such situations do exist.
Needless to say, my propensity to play scared would (and I would think, ought to) increase if the min-cash is a significant percentage of your bankroll. I personally would be more likely to do that if the min-cash is anything upwards of 8% of my bankroll.
But the PRIMARY consideration is M and edge. If your M is anywhere below 8 and the min-cash matters to you, with a couple of people left, I'd recommend just folding to the money. Even if the action folds down to me in the button with A6o or KJo, I'm likely to fold and wait for the min-cash. Thing is, at that stack size, it won't make enough of a difference, shoving your stack on the bubble as opposed to after it bursts, even though action speeds up once the bubble burst.
I think your perception of your edge should also play a great role in the decision. If you feel like you have an edge but are sitting on a short stack, you want to get really aggressive near the bubble, because with a short stack, you can't exploit weaker players, and you want to gain chips by the time you're ITM, so that you have a shot at going deep. If you feel like you're outclassed with regs and pros all around you, it's time to fold into the money, because gaining a couple of chips before the bubble bursts won't make much of a difference if they can outsmart you later on, and you'll be left with a near-min-cash when you bust in any case, and like DialingUp420 said above, cashing is still better than not cashing.