alexmax12

the same seems to be true with the second sim with 88, as the inputs are not the same as in game. This could be fine in this case if mentioned, but simply ignored, assumed and implied that they are the same and the outcome for 66% bet on the turn by villain is yielding the same response as the 50% sizing used in game.

Maybe I am missing something but it seems the first icm sim is incorrect. It has been run with a 9bb pot with 20bb behind whereas in reality the pot is 5.75bb. This would drastically change the spr and any postflop play.

First consideration would be to determine if you are getting the correct odds to call vs opponent’s range. With 78o you probably need at least 2 to 1. If your hand has 33%equity vs his range , 2 to 1 would be the chip ev breakeven point.

Even though it would be breakeven at this point it should still be a fold because you will be losing more often than winning, hence a higher variance play. Also, you have added incentive to keep the short stack in play as the other players will have to play with caution being a 10bbstack in play because of icm. So, personnally i would still fold even if calling was slightly +chip ev for these 2 reasons. I would consider calling getting 2.5 to 1 or more. Hope this helps !