bassdewd

My 4bet flatting range heavily depends on a variety of factors.

Such as
- villain 3bet/4bet/steal frequency
- 4bet sizing
- my position
- villain's position
- villain CB % / bluff tendencies

I really do not have a standard 4b flatting range. I'm quite happy to get in AA or KK preflop ~100bb deep in most spots.

I never 5bet QQ or worse unless I have a very strong reason to do so.

I think I would flat 100% with AA and KK here. Vs MP instead of CO, I would probably 5bet.

I honestly don't like looking at GTO 4 betting ranges. GTO doesn't apply in 10NL. I think villain never 4bets hands like AQ, AJs, KJs, 99-TT.

Some Kx, especially strong Kx will lead the turn. We're 4way in a pot, I doubt KQ would check very often, but you never know at 5NL. I would make the turn sizing bigger, getting value from Kx, Jx and flush draws. (65-75% ish) I think the river could be larger too getting value from Kx (75%). Fish love to call big bets when flush / straight draws miss.

If we bet bigger on the turn, we can shove most rivers hoping to get called by Kx.

Villains seem loose passive, thus likely to call too wide, we exploit that by valuebetting big.

I love the fact that you're thinking about raising here and pulled the trigger. Doing these kinds of things and reviewing it will make you a better player.

He's betting to get value from exactly the kind of hand that you have. You're almost never good if you call here. You also block the nuts with your JJ.

There are a few downsides to raising though. How often do we really have KJ when we 3bet preflop? I would fold KJo pre and flat call KJs vs UTG. We can credibly rep QQ, but that is an extremely narrow range.

It's important to know if this reg makes disciplined laydowns / is a nit. If villain has Ax, he probably has a broadway Ax given he called a 3bet preflop OOP. AT (prob raises flop) and AQ are two pair, AK and AJ have blockers to the nuts.

What stakes are you playing? I think at higher stakes (25 NL+) you may see more suited aces call preflop here which makes this play better. I'd be very cautious trying this against good regs though since we're repping very thin. Some regs just focus on their absolute hand value too much though.

Why aren't we cbetting this board? We're basically putting our hand face up. Our range looks like TT-AA, AK, AQs. All the pocket pairs CB the flop. We'll get a bunch of folds on the flop. The UTG range probably contains all pocket pairs, some suited aces, suited broadways. We also have quite a lot of equity when an A or K comes. We can barrel a lot of overcards too.

His flop raise size is so tiny, it just looks like it's only valuebets (in his mind) or clickbacks that don't believe you, which just give up on the turn.

The small raise size indicates to me that he's probably a fish. And fish don't normally bluff raise small.

This line looks a lot like JJ, 66, 44 & AJ. Against that range, we have 48% equity. Sometimes he flats with AJ. People aren't always stoked stacking off a pair of jacks in a 3bet pot. If we remove 50% of his AJ, we still have 38% equity. I think this range is probably a little bit to narrow. Occasionally, he'll show up with like KJ (let's give him 2 KJ combos, that brings the equity up to 41%). It really helps if we have any reads on villain. Even timing tells can be helpful. Snap / fast bets tend to be more for value heavy in my experience.

I honestly believe that we're slightly behind his range. I would call the turn and river (given normal sizing OTR), hoping he's spewing with something random some of the time. Against a tiny river bet, I think we can comfortably ship it and still get value from Jx.

Would love to hear more from other people and what he showed up with too. :) Perhaps I'm too conservative.

We do have some reads, even without the HH. He doesn't have a full stack & open limps. That's a surefire way of knowing he's a fish. Most likely he is a passive fish, rather than an aggro fish.

The adjustments for playing against passive fish, is valuebetting a lot.

I love the 5bb raise. We want to take the betting lead and make him call with worse hands. We're way ahead of his range. 5bb is the perfect sizing imo.

This is a great flop for us. I would like to see a bet that's a lot bigger. There are many hands that can call a bet (and he probably calls too wide incorrectly). We want to extract value from Kx, Jx, straight draws (also gutshots), flush draws. He's not folding any of those to a 40c bet on the flop. He may fold some small pocket pairs, but that's not a disaster. If we make the pot bigger in an early street, we can get exponentially more value on later streets.

The turn continuation bet is good. We have a straight draw to go with our pair and we're still valuebetting against worse hands. When we get raised, alarmbells go off in my mind. People who limp / play passively don't generally raise without a valuehand. Most often they play draws passively too. He could definitely turned two pair. Also, he could have a pair that is scared to get outdrawn. I would not at all be surprised if he shows up with K7 here some of the time. Take that into account when you only assign him valuehands. Sometimes donks do show up with random junk or questionable hands.

I think we're hating life, but not folding the turn. We have a fair amount of equity against a lot of hands. We need a certain amount of equity. Put it in flopzilla and see how you're stacking up. I think folding and jamming are both ok here. You're probably not losing a whole lot if you make the wrong decision here.

I would say focus on valuebetting effectively, rather than difficult situations where the result either way is negligible to your win rate.

Preflop, I would raise a little bit bigger. We can raise to approximately 24c and get calls, but as played preflop seems fine too.

On the flop, we need to continuation bet. There are many worse hands that can call. Ax, JJ-KK, loads of club draws. We need to extract value from them. Don't be afraid about raises, in 2NL you rarely get raised. (if you do it's almost never a bluff) In 2NL, you just need to bet a lot for value. The field is loose passive, meaning they call too much. This means we have to be valuebetting a lot. (thin valuebets and overbetting is great in 2NL). I would probably bet about 2/3 pot.

As played, calling the turn and river is correct. We're never folding the turn getting this price. He could also be bluffing with some club draws, sometimes people at 2NL show up with some random hands, although the sizing doesn't look bluffy. He could even have some valuehands that are worse than you. Some suited aces with poor kickers could valuebet here. Realize that because it's a half pot bet, we only need to win 33% of the time to make money on the river. Also consider what your hand looks like. Most Ax don't check back the flop.