QQ ye, obv a bet here
but mostly interested should i split range to check/call / check/raise some stuff in that spot vs that villain ? like here i dont wanna split cause my range is pretty strong and not that wide , so frequencies looks fine. (UPD:guess u agreed that betting with frequencies i described is fine here)
he stabs 40% of the time... thats why i also dont like checking here with the intention to XC or XR AA/KK some nut flushdraws and bluffs... so i think just betting should be fine in that particular spot
Sept. 13, 2013 | 7:55 p.m.
BB: $154.22 (Hero)
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $1.16, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $4, CO calls $2.84
Sept. 13, 2013 | 4:05 p.m.
btw in zoom there are not much dynamics(it exists but u are not playing vs particular villain quite often) would that affect your decision about it somehow? (like if we bluff in villain, we will not be meeting him a lot afterwards, so better only to pick very profitable bluffing spots only ye ? or doesnt matter much comparing to standard tables?)
if we get caught bluff shipping we will stop bluffing and just start value overbetting next time?
Sept. 12, 2013 | 12:49 a.m.
on that runout we have 56 value combos ( AT+)
when we bluff river what hands we wanna make indifferent?? TJs,t9s,QTs few combos of 99 guess only those??
what do u think of overbetting river is this an appropriate spot to do that? cause range v range looks like we are crushing him!! i am not sure just asking... like he cant have much more that A2s, AT, 88 here!... most of his stuff clear bluffcatchers vs our range... like is it possible to jam or bet 200% pot would that be correct???
TURN: bluffing for bluffing QJo +EV and giving up river u need around 47% pure FE on the turn... 3way i doubt if it is possible ... maybe if the guy is not folding much.... i think i would XF turn (villain has to call flop with BDFD+2O and 55-77 and fold those on the turn pretty much..... then turn bet will have EV of 0,5 )
ofcourse u can make betting QJo profitable on the turn if u will have successful river bluff but in that spot ! but here villain is not folding just enough.......although if we hit our str8 and villain will call us with KT+ ...turn betting EV will be +2bb (so if it was your plan u played it well) firstly my mistake was i plugged just this runout and was playing with EV,FE and etc , then i changed that river card to blank and put different scenarios
here as u i would be also very worried like to be balanced and have good value range and enough bluffs , but looks like in that spot we shouldnt be bluffing unless the villain is huge nit... if we bluff we are just making negative ev play here which decrease our EV significantly... maybe here we should overbet or not bluff...possibly bluffs will be +EV if villain only call KT here... but if he decide to bluff raise again we are in the big ass
river his reasonable folding frequency is between 35-20% on that runout...... which SUXXXXXXXX so i am not really sure what to do...he will fold more than 50% if he was floaty on the flop called BFD and if he will call AT+!!
on that river according to CR EV bluffing AK/AQ lot more better than bluffing hand like QJ... if he calls KT+ bluffing : QJo -15,74bb , AdKd -12,33bb , AXs -8bb
so bluffing qjo is bad cause he possibly can fold QT,QJ so we block his folding range
bluffing AdKd is bad cause we block his folding range KT , but better cause we block AT,A2 his calling range
AdXd so looks like the best bluffing hands... maybe we should only bluff those? if we feel villain loves folding.. if not just give up knowing your profitable turn game plan to barrel FD+ahi is profitable u just need to hit your flush and get value
Sept. 11, 2013 | 12:19 p.m.
preflop: u can make an argument to call even all offsuit aces , assuming that we will realize 65% equity oop we will be doing fine with a good gameplan..maybe here because he cbets on the higher side and bet turn a lot we can start like A8o+ or A7o+ , pretty interesting what other will think about it ! A2o has 44% of equity , A5o 46%!
his river cbet and aggression looks really low , so i would fold there , and vs his bet i assume we can fold quite a lot 49% of the time there , so prolly defending mostly our trips + could be fine! i would call pre K6s+ so i will have a lot of them....hmm if we call river trips + we will be folding 69% of the time... but we also have stil all combos of KT and 33... so we could sometimes bluff X/raise here
1) would u call on the turn all TX hands???(if we call our total range that folding will be 30% which is fine of course) if not what TX would you consider folding? maybe calling all not that bad still his turn barrel is high, we can assume he will barrel a lot.... we have to fold some TX, if we are not folding , we will be exploitable on the river! what do u think about it?
2) on what street should we have a raising range in that hand?? our range is pretty strong so we can afford it or should we wait still for the river?? guess raising turn would be better i am not sure... bluff raise AJ and also for value KT and 33, maybe KQ+ occasionally on the turn
Sept. 2, 2013 | 8:34 p.m.
agree about preflop... 7% is decently strong range so you wont realize all your equity.. i would call pre if i knew how to exploit villain postflop to be able to steal a pot from him decent amount of the time.. vs top7% i would call AQo+ ATs+ KQs+ 99+ i think...
postflop u can take a look into his XFolding stats as 3bettor. but all in all calling super dry board vs tight range knowing that he will often fire 3rd shouldnt be good, he has only few semi bluffs here.. by 21/16/6 we can assume that he is pretty honest and str8 forward guy
Sept. 2, 2013 | 8:14 p.m.
agree with marrek i would prefer to raise flop with something more marginal than 99, K of clubs , like call KJo with backdoors and bluff raise KQo. with KJo u can continue on more turns. Ax of clubs bluff raising also would be decent and gutters too. But all in all 3way better not to go crazy , so picking Kc or Ac would be totally fine!
as played postflop yeah WTSD could be a sign that he is a station, i would like also to check his W$SD stats as well if it is poor i am definitely not shipping it
Sept. 2, 2013 | 8:07 p.m.
as played u have to C/C he should show up here with some worse and have some bluffs
Dec. 9, 2012 | 12:32 p.m.
he opens 21%, he 4bets 6% of the time, range he 4bets =his open raise multiply by % he 4bets=21*0,06=1,26% so we get 1,26% range
1,26% so most likely it is QQ+ range , we have zero FE and our equity vs QQ+ or AKs+ KK+ ,vs QQ + our equity is only 20,7%, we have huge sample
Dec. 8, 2012 | 10:48 p.m.
guess he flats even all AK QQ combos being on early position. So when we jam we are most likely up against premiums ( i almost never 3bet /fold pre , but suppose in that hand it is the best play) we still want to 3bet him, because he calls too much 3bets.
Dec. 8, 2012 | 10:18 p.m.
in general i find myself almost never 3bet folding QQ, but looks like in that spot we are forced to do it
Dec. 8, 2012 | 3:04 p.m.
SB and BB both fishes
SB 42/8 only 13 hands (zoom)
flop and turn look fine
river:on that river i expect villain to show up
with ~ 46 combos of TRIPS or better
50 combos of Qx
and 50-70 combos of no made hands (which include busted OESD like t9, 56, some busted gutshots)
for us to call river (27%) villain has to be value cutting/spazzing himself with 18 worse combos (50 combos) or to be bluffing with 18(50-70 combos) combos...
should our default play be vs unknown fish just to muck? because he is unknown we will assume that he is not bluffing with his busted OESD and gutshots ? until we get reads that it is otherwise
Dec. 8, 2012 | 2:10 p.m.
Looks like calling is lot better here.
Dec. 8, 2012 | 1:56 p.m.
site looks very cool
but have trouble somehow converter doesn't work for me, it says invalid hand format (my setup is pokerstars +hm2) that is strange says wrong hand format,that's why posting by weaktight
villain is 21/16
opens from MP 21% of hands which is very loose
fold to 3bet total is 54%! lowish
fold to 3bet MP in position only 36%(84 sample)
his 4bet range from mp 1,3 which is only 6%!!!
he calls 3bets on MP 58% of the time, and 4bets 6%!!!
don't like his sizing he made it too big, so he commits himself and looks like he is not bluffing
versus QQ+ AK ev of the shove is negative -2,9$
but that guy could have even lot more narrower range something like he could 4bet half his QQ and Ak combos and call with half... so vs AA(6),KK(6), AK(8) QQ(1) we will have 30% equity and negative EV of -8,2$ he could be 4betting like only with KK,AA here too
So versus that villain we should 3bet versus his calling range and fold vs his 4bet range(when he is EP or MP; co &bu he plays looser jamming would be ok) btw postflop he plays pretty str8 forward that why flatting is not that great, he won't barrel into us like crazy