filthynines

Good question. My instinct was yes, but then I got thinking about the AJ type of hands, and perhaps he can fold these if we 3bet the Flop.

If we're going for stacks maybe call Flop then raise/GII on the Turn. This allows a further barrel to be fired and might give the Villain the impression that he's now committed and has to go with this hand.

I expect to see AK/AQ/AJ here a lot of the time, especially with the River bet. If your analysis is right re: odds to call then I think a call is fine. You shouldn't be as strong as 2 pair here.

If I have stats and they are showing signs of being loose/passive early on then I will be checking back AK on the Flop.

Agree with calling the Turn. I could find a bet on the River if checked to, but I would be keeping it around half pot to encourage a call.

On the River we just have absolutely no clue. Bluffs we beat are JT and 67, and I have seen players take that line with those hands. JT would be obviously more heavily weighted. But, there's a tonne of value hands that could do this too. I think this is a fold without some significant read.

Very interesting - thanks very much for that

I don't have much to add on the analysis; reading the above has been useful so thank you to those who have contributed.

This thread has highlighted that there are some spots which look like they should be purely 1st level thinking, but on closer inspection need more thought. I had a spot yesterday which looked simple on the face of it, but after I snap-called AI on the Flop and won I thought I'd been far too hasty.

Good thread.

I don't mind the 3bet. I like to get active early in order to get my 3bet stat up, and then I tend to get more action vs my big hands.

Everything post-flop fine. Probably get snapped off on the River by AQ. Doubt you're up against something as weak as 99/TT here.

I think your analysis of the Turn summed it up. However, I think you're a little optimistic that a naked Ax would c/c that Flop.

Yep, think I bottled this one. Thanks guys.

FWIW I looked at my database after the hand and I had him as 12/12 after 12 hands, and 0 3bet. Tiny sample though, obv.

Re: reads. You ask the same questions as I ask people. The reason is this was a Zoom hand, and my HUD on PT4 doesn't work (Mac only issue?).

Yep, agree I've burned money somewhere here.

I don't think that this was a good spot to 3bet considering the shortstacker was in there. He has 34BB and is liable to stack off against you with any PP or A-X hand. I think you should be 3betting bigger pre against two player OOP, but you're constrained by the shortstacker.

On the Flop you should be betting big. Bet big and rep QQ+ and GII against a raise.

Sorry to resurrect an old thread, but are the chips points or are they chess pieces? They can't (shouldn't be) both tools to keep score and tools to ply your trade.

Really, really weird. I think we have to snap-call and not be too upset if he shows up with AA. I think we're going to be levelling ourselves if we consider folding.

Why can't he have AdXd all combos if he's going to be shoving like this? Does it always have to be pure (perceived) value? Could even have T8 here if Villain is unknown.

Gotcha - good point.

I don't think I can add much to knoxox's post.

Also, there's more than one combo of J9.

That HH confused the fuck out of me. Didn't understand how there was an issue considering we got all-in with top set on the Turn...

Should we GII pre-flop regardless of whether he's 4bet-bluffing? We don't have a made hand yet, and we're going to be in a sticky situation if we flat and the flop comes down 5-6-7 or similar.

Question (not criticism): why are we jamming the River? Value or bluff?

I'm thinking GII pre-flop since we're OOP. There rest plays itself and we can't really fold. Did you walk into AA?

Would anybody consider folding here as it's our first hand at the table and we have no history?

Balancing is over-rated at 10NL. If this is balancing then balancing = losing money.

How medium is medium? Are we talking Q8/J8? Or 87?

I think K8 and below I'd be going into c/c mode, although unless Villain's whole range is bluffs I'm not sure that we can win by the River if the Villain starts betting.

Agree that 99 is a bet, and I would check the River almost always without a read.

From a non-expert point of view: it seems that the lines here that we can take are all exploitable in some way.

If we're folding pairs on the Turn, then all the Villain has to do is barrel twice and he can fold out our pairs with all of the hands that we beat. If we're calling the Turn to fold on the River, then all the Villain has to do is to fire three barrels.

That said, by the River you look as though you have a hand like you have and the Villain can play accordingly. If the player usually bets Rivers only for value, then we should be folding. If there is a propensity to bluff the River then that leans more towards a call, but we'd need a strong read that this is the case.

In a vacuum I think we should call the Turn and put no more money in the pot on the River. We're BvB and Villain's range is wider than hands that have us beaten right now, and will have six outs to the River if this is true.

I would maybe think it's more often QJ than QQ/JJ. I know that the same cards kill those hands in this spot, but players tend to be aware that they have four cards by the River to make a boat if they have two pair, and ten if they have the set.

In any event I think this is a good fold. This hand looks well-played to me. The Flop bet-size has changed how we played this whole hand, but looks pretty good to me.

Agree that without reads this is a fold. The hands which he can have are obvious.

Why did you overbet the pot on the River?

I really don't think he has KQ combos here except for exactly KsQs. JT makes perfect sense, as does Ks9s. I think most players at 10NL would c/c with two pair with KQ (and K9). The Ace tends to freeze them.

I wouldn't call the River here, and when I do I expect to be shown the nuts.

And oh yeah; I'd probably fold the River.

I would never be calling to hope for a chop. This is a dirty board.

Flop is fine, although a bet would work. As played, raise the Turn for value. Then I'd probably still check the River when the King hits.

I leak a lot of money playing hands like this.

You've sort of put yourself in an equity trap on the Flop. You've called pre with the hope of hitting a flush draw, two pair or straight draw. You know that you're in trouble against a usual 4betting range if you do not hit like that. Trouble is, you're not often going to hit the Flop that hard and you're going to be OOP.

Once you've called pre I'm sort of torn as to what to do. Checking and giving up seems super weak once you've made a pair and draw. Check/calling seems as though that's going to burn further money because you absolutely can't continue unless you make your hand on the Turn. Check/shove is probably marginally the best move you can make, because you do have a little fold equity. But it really isn't much, and you've probably walked into the bottom of his range here.

I think the 3bet was mistake preflop. Flatting in the SB would have been fine here. I don't mind folding to the 4bet when we're OOP.