CO: $100.00 (Hero)
Do you agree with my guess of Villain's range? If yes, is my plan EV+?
June 11, 2015 | 3:49 p.m.
A somewhat specific post as I guess not that many players dabble in Limit HUO8. I am trying to evaluate which hands to fold to a C-bet.
The 3 hands below have the same Villain, who open 100% of BTN and C-bets 90%. In all three hands, the preflop action was BTN (Villain) raises, Hero (BB) calls, and the flop action was Hero checks, BTN C-bets. So the pot is 5 SB, 1 SB to call.
What is your action with the hands below?
Hand 1: Hero = 5d 3c 5s Qc, Flop = 3h 2s Kd
Hand 2: Hero = Ks Qd 6s 8d, Flop = Jh 3h 6c
Hand 3: Hero = Kh Kd 5c Jd, Flop = 3c 8h 2c
July 2, 2014 | 1:34 p.m.
I see your opponent's range as follow:
a) Complete bluffs with 0 equity, maybe some bare Qh bluffs.
b) Value-raise with a flush (most likely Q-high)
c) Hands with equity turned into a bluff.
Against a) , calling is obviously better than raising. Against b), calling is also superior to raising (as raising looks so much like the nuts).
Against c), finding the best option is less trivial. But the decision there is going to be somewhat close, and c) is likely to represent a very small part of your opponent's range anyway (as he is probably x/c most sets and maybe top-two, and because your 87 combo blocks other 2p combos).
So overall, calling wins.
March 14, 2014 | 1:03 p.m.
SB: Hero: $400
This said he has been playing this particular session in loose-passive style. He has made some very questionable oop flop calls of a c-bet. He has shown the goods in the only two hands where he has shown aggression so far.
My image is slightly aggro. I am down one buy-in, so my opponent is probably expecting me to be more aggro than usual.
Hero raises to $10, Player1 calls $8
A good reg would have a balanced x/r range here, including stuff like JT, QT9, QTT or maybe two small pairs turned into a bluff... But given that my opponent has been straightforward and passive so far, I believe his range is very nutty here.
I can't find a fold though, given that:
I am near the top of my range / I have a 7 blocker / a 9-6-T can win / he might check a club River giving me a choice to take a free SD or bluff.
Thoughts on my opponent's range? Standard call I assume?
March 13, 2014 | 3:24 p.m.
SB: Hero: $533.19
Hero raises to $10, Player1 calls $8
March 13, 2014 | 3:01 p.m.
Hi Stefan. You advocate raising sometimes. But the reason I chose to call with that specific hand is that:
a - I have bad kickers, making my hand poorer versus a get-it-in range and
b - I have the flush draw, meaning that when ahead there are very few bad cards for my hand.
If I had a raising range here I think the value part would likely look like non-FH AT and KT. Thoughts?
(While I would think like this at the table, I now realize that the A or K blocker would reduce the number of AA and KK combos which might compose a good part of my opponent's GII range that I actually beat with trips)
At the range level, I think that intuitively, because I would call with QQ and QT (which might not be correct btw), I would tend to call all the rest of my range. But I guess that never having the nuts in your raising range doesn't necessarily make it wrong to raise...
March 10, 2014 | 12:14 p.m.
FWIW in Villain's shoes on such a board I would typically have some sort of nut gutshot, weak pair or weak straight draw when x/r-ing with the intention of folding. In my experience, most of my opponents seem to use a similar approach. So I expect my opponent's x/r/folding range to have some decent equity versus my hand. This is actually what motivated my raise, as I didn't expect to get it in with an equity edge (thanks sted for putting a number on my equity vs get-it-in range).
As for calling the flop x/r, facing a bet on a non-spade 2-4-6-7-9, do you call?
March 3, 2014 | 1:46 p.m.
Thank you for the replies.
Not sure what to do on the turn, as I'm not that keen on stacking though (maybe you could check jam for added fold equity, or if it goes check check then at getting to the river without growing the pot anymore could be a good result).
Well, I don't think I am doing great versus Villain's raising range after I bet and get raised. But at the same time I though that a very large part of Villain's range was a draw of pair + draw, hence my decision to pot / get it in.
Sorry what is 3b2i ?
March 3, 2014 | 1:31 p.m.
BB: Hero: $202
Villain raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, Villain calls $12
Feb. 28, 2014 | 8:46 a.m.
SB: Hero: $200
Hero raises to $6, Villain calls $4
(*except maybe with the very top of my range, where I want to encourage calls from say dominated draws...)
Feb. 27, 2014 | 9:24 a.m.
BB: Villain: $168.47
Hero raises to $6, Villain raises to $18, Hero calls $12
I thought given my read, Villain was somewhat likely to barrel Turn with a wide range.
The reason I ask is that I realize that my range is currently unbalanced in this spot, being mostly trips or above. This makes my call very transparent unfortunately. I assume the quick fix is to keep calling with FH and double-flat more with draws?
As a bonus question, what is your play if you change the Turn to the 5h?
Feb. 25, 2014 | 2:58 p.m.
When he calls I was pretty sure that he had an overpair because most of his hands that include a 7 would be like 567x or 789x and I would expect him to either raise flop or bet turn with these hands. Turn card is a pretty good card for me because I thought that now with the straight being outthere he will definitely fold his overpair at this point. correct?
Once he calls turn again I just decided to give up on the river because when he calls this turn as well i doubt he is folding his overpair OTR.
Reading the original post, my immediate reaction was to disagree with this read. My intuition is that a regular (somewhat solid by inference from preflop stats) will have a fairly strong range on this River.
My intuition is that regs at these stakes understand that our flop bluffing range typically has some outs against aa**. From villain's point of view, the 5s is thus a very bad card if he indeed holds an overpair. I would thus expect him to fold a decent amount of naked overpairs on the Turn. I wonder what other posters think about villain's River range?