What is happening is that IP is raising many many Qx as a "demi-bluff" to get value for his KQ combos.
If for some reason IP didn't have any Qx in his range (but still had KQ) then you would see some pure bluff raises.
Nov. 5, 2018 | 6:33 p.m.
Hi Francesco, I love your theory videos. I would love to see once in a while a live play video from you to see how you put everything in practice
Oct. 12, 2018 | 4:04 p.m.
Thanks, that's the method I've been using usually (calculating my odds on a calldown) but as you say, sometimes if he doesn't auto bet river then our equity is actually worse than what propokertools gives us (and their is no way to solve for a chosen river strat for vilain I think, I tried.)
Also on 5th street it's more complicated I think because you have some backdoor equity and can reevaluate on 6th, there I think the "calldown odds" method is even less accurate.
I was just wondering if you had another method than this one or are just going by "feel".
Maybe some examples of situation where you can call getting less than "calldown odds" and some examples where you need to fold even getting right "calldown odds" would be a nice subject for a future video. I feel like this a part of razz that hasn't been really solved yet to my knowledge and one of the few spots where you can really get an edge on other good regs.
Oct. 11, 2018 | 2:06 p.m.
Good video, thanks, I like your style !
Question : How do you account for reverse implied odds when considering making a call on 5th/6th street ? It's kinda easy to use propokertools or odds oracle to calculate your equity vs range but it's a very incomplete method. I assume you'll need to do some guessing but a general idea would be helpful.
Oct. 6, 2018 | 1:42 p.m.
You didn't mention at 30:30 if you like steal 4J3 into and 3 and T bringin (5 dead)?
It's 4 handed so tighter steal seems good but that hand would just make it into my range risking 60k to win 66k price isn't atrocious ?
Later in the video, Kroko steals 8JA into 4Q (8 dead), I think thats a worse spot than the previous 4J3 ?
Oct. 1, 2018 | 7:11 p.m.
Agree with your comment regarding these O8 hand rankings. Somewhat agree about ICM. (it's only a model and has it's flaws and can't account for everything)
GTO software is very different tho, it's results are achieved in a different way and can be 100% trusted within the parameters set.
Sept. 5, 2018 | 11:07 a.m.
Would love for you to use the same format ! :)
April 2, 2018 | 9:38 a.m.
This vid was AWESOME ! Would love to see more of this format.
Thanks a lot Tyler.
April 1, 2018 | 11:13 a.m.
Your videos are really high quality, thanks for that !
About the Stud hand at 46:30, you said you'd call 2p on the river and raise AAA. Considering he probably isn't raising many split 6's on 5th AND there is a 6 dead, doesn't it make sense to also raise any two pair on the river ?
You even said he is the kind of player to call without thinking too much.
And I would argue it's a good value raise even vs a thinking player because you are so far ahead of their range. You can just add some bluffs if they fold too much
Also I think raising naked AA on the river as a bluff is better than T9cc for example because you're blocking his best value hand which is AA. Obviously you would have to not do it every time because otherwise your bluffing way too much.
Sept. 10, 2017 | 2:56 a.m.
I know this vid is very old but if you see this comment I'd appreciate an answer RLP :)
@30:00 you 3b KTo BUvCO and chessnok x/r 22s on 843ss, is this line standard ? If so why ?
And could you try to describe the strategy on this flop for CO ? Thanks !
BTW really love your content, top notch !
May 24, 2017 | 4:27 a.m.
Hey Chris, when you run the sim for the stud spot where you have (T9)K5 vs Q4dd, you mention you have 28% equity and only need 14% to call one bet because of the odds you're getting.
I was under the impression that this doesn't tell the whole story because that's your equity at showdown and A) you don't always go to showdown, B) you will be paying way more than one bet to go to showdown.
How do you factor this into account ?
May 10, 2017 | 1:39 p.m.
at 33:00 the 9 will face a 3b always after raising 4th (except when the other player paired the 3).
He has around 31% equity vs (7-7-43) obviously depending on his exact holding he could have a bit less or a bit more because of dead cards etc.
How would you go about calculating the pot size needed to make going from 26% equity 3way to 35% HU worth it when you're going to face a 3b with 31% equity ?
Instinctively do you think if you just coldcalled 3rd the pot would be too small to raise with the 9 ?
May 9, 2017 | 2:03 p.m.
@15:40, I have some trouble postflop when defending hands like this. Im guessing we have to call a cbet ? But what cards are we continuing to call on the turn/river tho ? I know this is a very open question but I feel its important if we are going to defend the big blind with very weak hands like these.
Dec. 22, 2016 | 1 a.m.
Great vid, thank you !
@7:30 you were talking about what kind of low hands mistere3 can cold call 2 with here. You said it's close with A23 or 237ccc and you were supposed to run numbers but instead you ran them for your hand. Could you confirm that those hands can indeed call 2 cold ?
Dec. 10, 2016 | 5:21 p.m.
Hey Dylan, thx for the vid.
About the razz spot @28:57 on the right, you have 45K in the bring-in and 588T fold, the 5 last to act steals. You were going to talk about dead cards and how they affect your defending range but didn't, could you elaborate in the comments please ?
May 25, 2016 | 3:38 p.m.
Oh you're right, my math was wrong I took the whole 2nd+1st place (minus the 4k still playing for) instead of just the difference between the 2.
May 14, 2016 | 12:09 p.m.
Chris, your videos are of amazing quality, I like you theory stuff and review both ! Great job thanks a lot.
GG for the scoop, the chip tray full of Oreos line was gold ! Don't you think you gave up too much of an edge on the deal though ?
With my calcs, taking into consideration he had 103bb to your 100 your deal is the equivalent of you having a 52% win at equal stacks, you can probably do way more than that right ? Just curious what would be your estimate for your win % it that spot ?
May 14, 2016 | 3:01 a.m.
Thanks Tyler great vid !
I think you made a little mistake when calculating the EV of 5b jamming, you counted the open raise as dead money, and then the 4b as dead money too, so you added 2bb of dead money by counting it twice. You also counted the bb twice since it's included in our 3b.
May 13, 2016 | 1:34 p.m.
Very nice thanks ! Probably one of the vids that brought me the most value on the site.
I'm actually quite mad that I didn't come up with this model myself the countless of time that I wondered if I should take a shove on the bubble or not. Its so simple and intuitive yet pretty effective.
May 11, 2016 | 11:31 a.m.
Yep agree with that, all good comments about psychology and metagame of live mtt and also the future EV of having a huge stack is a factor that is often underrated IMO.
But as I am very mathematically inclined, I'd love to be able to use a program like ICMizer, see the EV of the play, and decide what's the lowest EV I'd want to take the play.
To me it feels that in my hand example (I was already 3rd stack at the table if I folded to his 4b, and the table was not fighting back my opens so far, also we were only playing for less than 2 hours more that day) the benefits of shoving and him folding or shoving and sucking out don't outweigh the costs. So that means that I don't want to take the play if it is 0EV, I want some kind of edge, but I really have no clue where the line is, +0.5bb +1bb, +2bb ?
What do you think about my statement putting the 1bb EV icmizer gives for this one spot, into 100 bb/100 and comparing it with our theoretical bb/100 in this tournament at this point with a 50bb stack (I guesstimate it to be around 20bb/100 FWIW). Can you spot a flaw in this approach ?
March 1, 2016 | 3:26 p.m.
I agree, obviously, but I was looking for some rough numbers about the kind of cEV edges you are looking for in different spots and I can then adjust from there for structure, softness, possible icm etc.
For my example hand, it was a SOFT 1200E buyin tournament, table was mostly soft except for 2 players, good structure (avg end of day 1 = 34bb).
What kind of EV (in numbers of bb) would you be looking for in that spot ?
Feb. 27, 2016 | 3:33 p.m.
I've been wondering about a topic lately, which is not taking thin edges in soft mtts. I agree that we should not take just any edge, but I've never seens numbers about that topic.
For example, let's say we know that 5b shoving our 59bb stack (53bb remaining after the 3b) with A2s is +EV, but we have a pretty good stack left remaining in a soft field live mtt if we fold, what kind of edge do we need to take the spot in amount of bb won ? It would be even more precise to talk about the ev gain per amount of bb risked for the play (like a 0.2bb edge, when risking 6bb to call a shortstack shove is clearly worth it, while a 0.5bb edge when risking our whole 60bb stack might not be)
Like is a +1bb shove with 30% bust probability (with 53bb) worth it ? If not what would be your cap ?
Also, is it flawed logic to be thinking that a 1bb EV gain on one hand amounts to 100 bb/100 and so is hugely winning, and way above our expected winrate and should be taken ?
Lets just for argument sake say that we are talking about early to mid levels, where more than 25% of the field remains and so ICM is negligible.
Feb. 27, 2016 | 11:52 a.m.
Great analysis, but I sort of disagree with the x/b on the flop especially since when the K hits on the turn or river, your opponents are going to put a lot a AQ combos in your range so it's not at deceptive as you might think. On the 8 too you will have a lot of credible 9x combos J9 T9 99 97s.
Obviously against tough opponents I like to not bet every combination of every draw on the flop, but I think the x/b has way more merit with a hand like KQ where its way more deceptive on an A or 9 turn or river.