Thanks for the quality content as always !
@30:11 : my choice to bet the K4 was a combination of having the 2 FD blockers (keeps my frequency in check more than it has a huge EV impact, but still it's better than not having them) and the fact that raidalot had a lot of ICM pressure and had allready shown he was playing too tight because of it (or maybe even correctly, hard to say, but def a lot tigther than chip EV)
@43:10 I actually missed the fact I paired the 3 :( It was late and 2 weeks into WCOOP having played every single day. I remember being a bit tilted after I realized.
@48:50 : I just ran a sim for A3K vs (8-8-Q) and I'm not even a favorite ! So big mistake indeed. This is a very rare spot and I never ran a sim for it, thought the K vs Q would be a non factor and basically we would be playing 2 card hands. Wasn't too worried about balance being a tournament vs a shorter stack (4BB to start) and super rare spot.
I disagree that I should defend T9K, 36% EQ (versus an opening range of two cards 8 or lower) doesn't seem like enough intuitively and I have very bad reverse implied odds. even 98K (41%) seems bad.
Feb. 23, 2020 | 12:56 p.m.
It's because of Sam's tree configuration. He only allowed IP to raise river to 2.5x or 5x (and all in) instead of using %tage of pot sizings.
So it makes the 10%pot block absurdly strong.
Just have a look at what AA does for IP vs 10%pot block : they only raise 50% of the time to all in size. It doesn't make sense for AA to raise to 50 because it's too small a size to reopen the betting, the value gained pales in comparison to the risk of getting shoved on. And they can't go all in all the time because the size is too big and they wouldn't get called by worse often enough (it would incentivize OOP to put all his nuts in his block size because he knows he gets raised very often to all in)
If they had an inbetween size to choose from they would raise 100% of the time.
Jan. 15, 2020 | 9:53 p.m.
@7:00 with K6dd on the 33524ddd board, can you elaborate a bit on sizing(s) choices on the river please ? With this combo in particular I thought going bigger (overbet) would yield more EV ?
My understanding of the spot is that we would check a lot because he makes a straight or a flush very often, and when we bet we would mostly bet bigger than 75% pot, is that wrong ?
May 27, 2019 | 8:53 p.m.
What is happening is that IP is raising many many Qx as a "demi-bluff" to get value for his KQ combos.
If for some reason IP didn't have any Qx in his range (but still had KQ) then you would see some pure bluff raises.
Nov. 5, 2018 | 6:33 p.m.
Hi Francesco, I love your theory videos. I would love to see once in a while a live play video from you to see how you put everything in practice
Oct. 12, 2018 | 4:04 p.m.
Thanks, that's the method I've been using usually (calculating my odds on a calldown) but as you say, sometimes if he doesn't auto bet river then our equity is actually worse than what propokertools gives us (and their is no way to solve for a chosen river strat for vilain I think, I tried.)
Also on 5th street it's more complicated I think because you have some backdoor equity and can reevaluate on 6th, there I think the "calldown odds" method is even less accurate.
I was just wondering if you had another method than this one or are just going by "feel".
Maybe some examples of situation where you can call getting less than "calldown odds" and some examples where you need to fold even getting right "calldown odds" would be a nice subject for a future video. I feel like this a part of razz that hasn't been really solved yet to my knowledge and one of the few spots where you can really get an edge on other good regs.
Oct. 11, 2018 | 2:06 p.m.
Good video, thanks, I like your style !
Question : How do you account for reverse implied odds when considering making a call on 5th/6th street ? It's kinda easy to use propokertools or odds oracle to calculate your equity vs range but it's a very incomplete method. I assume you'll need to do some guessing but a general idea would be helpful.
Oct. 6, 2018 | 1:42 p.m.
You didn't mention at 30:30 if you like steal 4J3 into and 3 and T bringin (5 dead)?
It's 4 handed so tighter steal seems good but that hand would just make it into my range risking 60k to win 66k price isn't atrocious ?
Later in the video, Kroko steals 8JA into 4Q (8 dead), I think thats a worse spot than the previous 4J3 ?
Oct. 1, 2018 | 7:11 p.m.
Agree with your comment regarding these O8 hand rankings. Somewhat agree about ICM. (it's only a model and has it's flaws and can't account for everything)
GTO software is very different tho, it's results are achieved in a different way and can be 100% trusted within the parameters set.
Sept. 5, 2018 | 11:07 a.m.
Would love for you to use the same format ! :)
April 2, 2018 | 9:38 a.m.
This vid was AWESOME ! Would love to see more of this format.
Thanks a lot Tyler.
April 1, 2018 | 11:13 a.m.
Your videos are really high quality, thanks for that !
About the Stud hand at 46:30, you said you'd call 2p on the river and raise AAA. Considering he probably isn't raising many split 6's on 5th AND there is a 6 dead, doesn't it make sense to also raise any two pair on the river ?
You even said he is the kind of player to call without thinking too much.
And I would argue it's a good value raise even vs a thinking player because you are so far ahead of their range. You can just add some bluffs if they fold too much
Also I think raising naked AA on the river as a bluff is better than T9cc for example because you're blocking his best value hand which is AA. Obviously you would have to not do it every time because otherwise your bluffing way too much.
Sept. 10, 2017 | 2:56 a.m.
I know this vid is very old but if you see this comment I'd appreciate an answer RLP :)
@30:00 you 3b KTo BUvCO and chessnok x/r 22s on 843ss, is this line standard ? If so why ?
And could you try to describe the strategy on this flop for CO ? Thanks !
BTW really love your content, top notch !
May 24, 2017 | 4:27 a.m.
Hey Chris, when you run the sim for the stud spot where you have (T9)K5 vs Q4dd, you mention you have 28% equity and only need 14% to call one bet because of the odds you're getting.
I was under the impression that this doesn't tell the whole story because that's your equity at showdown and A) you don't always go to showdown, B) you will be paying way more than one bet to go to showdown.
How do you factor this into account ?
May 10, 2017 | 1:39 p.m.
at 33:00 the 9 will face a 3b always after raising 4th (except when the other player paired the 3).
He has around 31% equity vs (7-7-43) obviously depending on his exact holding he could have a bit less or a bit more because of dead cards etc.
How would you go about calculating the pot size needed to make going from 26% equity 3way to 35% HU worth it when you're going to face a 3b with 31% equity ?
Instinctively do you think if you just coldcalled 3rd the pot would be too small to raise with the 9 ?
May 9, 2017 | 2:03 p.m.
@15:40, I have some trouble postflop when defending hands like this. Im guessing we have to call a cbet ? But what cards are we continuing to call on the turn/river tho ? I know this is a very open question but I feel its important if we are going to defend the big blind with very weak hands like these.
Dec. 22, 2016 | 1 a.m.
Great vid, thank you !
@7:30 you were talking about what kind of low hands mistere3 can cold call 2 with here. You said it's close with A23 or 237ccc and you were supposed to run numbers but instead you ran them for your hand. Could you confirm that those hands can indeed call 2 cold ?
Dec. 10, 2016 | 5:21 p.m.
Hey Dylan, thx for the vid.
About the razz spot @28:57 on the right, you have 45K in the bring-in and 588T fold, the 5 last to act steals. You were going to talk about dead cards and how they affect your defending range but didn't, could you elaborate in the comments please ?
May 25, 2016 | 3:38 p.m.
Oh you're right, my math was wrong I took the whole 2nd+1st place (minus the 4k still playing for) instead of just the difference between the 2.
May 14, 2016 | 12:09 p.m.
Chris, your videos are of amazing quality, I like you theory stuff and review both ! Great job thanks a lot.
GG for the scoop, the chip tray full of Oreos line was gold ! Don't you think you gave up too much of an edge on the deal though ?
With my calcs, taking into consideration he had 103bb to your 100 your deal is the equivalent of you having a 52% win at equal stacks, you can probably do way more than that right ? Just curious what would be your estimate for your win % it that spot ?