kitsune's avatar


15 points

Hey Kalupso,

Yes, its general but i dont think its too general. Not much different from asking how having different bet sizing on the same spot affect our ranges and equity.

Yea, but I play PLO and there is almost never pure bluffs unless its a pure blocker bluff. But that is besides the point of the question though. The question is more about the maths of a spot with a c/r strategy without going into the details of it. A yes or no, A or B question. We are setting up a GTO strategy from our range perspective ignoring villain range at the moment.

March 25, 2017 | 1:57 a.m.

Post | kitsune posted in Chatter: Poker Theory: c/f c/c c/r dynamic.

Hi, I was wondering does anyone have any idea of how these strategic options should influence one another.

Say for example we decided for what ever reason that we should c/c 66.66% of the time with our range and fold 33.33% of the time if not we are going to get exploited. (just a assumption to set up the sub game)

Now I want to include some c/r hands. How does that affect my whole checking range? Should it now look like

c/f 33.33%
c/c 55.55%
c/r 11.11%

Or does including a c/r strategy lets you fold more without being exploited? like:

c/f 40%
c/c 50%
c/r 10%

Any theory or maths is welcome.

March 22, 2017 | 2:35 a.m.

with a 4 SPR? how much would u bet?

March 5, 2017 | 3 a.m.

The description pretty much describe the spot we are in. Assuming about 3.7-4 SPR. Wanted to hear your thoughts on how we should be playing bottom two here without any redraw.

March 5, 2017 | 2:43 a.m.

Comment | kitsune commented on Small Edges

No, the preflop range is 75%. If you key in the flop range (J+,dd,T9+) into PJ you will get BB cbetting 78% of his range on the flop. That is what I meant.

Oct. 3, 2016 | 7:51 a.m.

Comment | kitsune commented on Small Edges

Very good video, especially the analysis about wide ranges.

Only thing I want to add is the cbet range on the KJ2dd flop does seem rather wide (78% of the time). But it might not really affect the ratio of made hands to air on the river much.

Oct. 2, 2016 | 10:35 a.m.

Comment | kitsune commented on A Poker Site Should

Awesome news. GL. I think every technical aspect of it can be solve by money but competing with PS cant be solve by money. They do spend alot on marketing and you will have to find someway to market more efficiently without trying to out spend PS. Surely easy to get regulars to play on your site but it would be tough to reach the recreational market. I suggest leveraging social media a lot, especially before it launches so ppl are signed up even before it launches.

Sept. 2, 2016 | 12:50 a.m.

Hey Tom Chambers,
Thanks for answering the question.

Got some thoughts about it.

I would actually think A isnt that much different compare to B and C equity wise but have worst visibility on later streets. Any reason why B/C is so much easier of a cbet than A is? I think bare 64 have more incentive not to see a turn compare to bare AQxx but at the same time have less incentive to bloat the pot.

And I do think all 3 of those hands gets owned when we get check/raise. (But yea, definitely will be cbetting vs opponents with low raise cbets)

(G) Air range
When you say check/give up 9886 is only when we face a turn bet right? If given the opportunity we wld use it as turn/river bluffs when BB checks those streets?

July 27, 2016 | 3:56 a.m.

haha. make sense. The hands with middling equity are the hardest to play.

July 26, 2016 | 10:33 a.m.

not betting nutflush draws? got to rethink that abit. The turn equity is going to skew too much in favour of BB if you are checking back all your nut flush draws when the flush hits.

Yea, seems easy to 'argue' one way or the other. Thats why I ask this question :).

July 26, 2016 | 10:27 a.m.

Hey guys, wanted some input on what you guys cbet/not cbet in these spots.

Its single range COvsBB. Both regulars. CO pfr about 30% while BB probably def about 40-50% of hands and have a raise cbet % of about 15%. Flop comes Qh6s4s, bb checks.

Questions are: Do you cbet these hands? How do you react to a raise (assume big raise to 75-100% pot)? And feel free to tell us why if you think its important to the discussion. (we will be ignoring donking ranges and assume BB checks everything)

a) Bare 64. AcKd6c4d
b) One pair Q+. AAT9:ccdd or AdQdTc7c
c) OP+GS. AA87:ccdd
d) non-nut FD: JJT5:ssdd or AdKdTs2s
e) Straight draws/no flush draw. 9775:ddcc or 9875:ddcc
f) Non-nut combo draws. AdJs7s5d
g) "Air" Range. AdKd6c5c or TdTh9c8h

Thanks for your input in advance. Cheers.

July 17, 2016 | 6:30 a.m.

Hey Phil, got some thoughts on 3betting double pairs in BNvsCO scenarios. I started learning PLO using PJ ranges and PJ $3B10I range includes ALL double pairs that have a single suit and all double pairs that have two suits. While 9922:xxyz cant call a 4bet, but if we get it alittle connected like 9955:xxyz its actually a profitable peel and stack off against a 4bet using PJ vs strictly only AA or a $4B4 range and any two suited pairs are profitable calling a 4bet 100bb deep. It does assume we play perfectly on the flop, but in SSPLO, its like close to always AA or AKK against a reasonable player and its easy to play against that range.

Either way I am quite indifferent to which strategy is better, but if we do remove those hands than we need to replace some other hands to get a 10% 3betting range from somewhere else. And I feel raising double pairs that have combinations of mid+low pairs promotes the non-nutty part of the hand by trying to get it heads up rather than encouraging multi way action.

May 15, 2016 | 11:39 a.m.

Comment | kitsune commented on Footage For Review

Hey, Mikey. Any chance you guys are still looking for vids? I play 100PLOz or 200PLOz 6 max. If so, just pm me the details of the format and I will get it done in a day or two. thanks.

May 8, 2016 | 3:45 a.m.

*I have a very hard time trying to get the formatting to work in this forum given I wrote this out on a word file before this. If I space every certain line like I intended it to be the numbers would all be mess up for some reason. Sorry for that, its alittle hard to read. But it is what it is.

Range construction (going to use PJ ranges)
MP: $FI15
BB: $FI20!$3B6I
SB: $FI15!$3B4O
1. Range equity on flop
SB: 33%
MP: 35%
BTN 32%

I ran SB range vs MP range on PPT.
Our specific hand have 64% equity against MP entire range. Which mean we are at about the top 15% of hands in our range vs MP.
3. I actually think vs good players that are capable of bluff raising blockers/air/draws and will bet when check to themselves to steal a high % of the time we shouldn’t have any leading range here.
Against weaker calling station type players that will call their weak draws we want to donk for value because they will check back too often and we have good FE against their air range.
4. I would think MP cbetting range should be very polarize 3 ways on this flop so I am very confuse at the choice of a ½ pot bet sizing.
I would think such a small sizing would be to exploit opponents when you have a nut+nut hand like 87** with the Ahh but since we have Ahh he cant have that which makes it very puzzling.

Another way of looking at it is if MP’s range is actually not polarize here and he is betting for thin value. And that will be the way I construct his range. It will be too complicated to create two strategies where villain bets full pot with a sub range and ½ pot with another sub range so I will also assume he bets ½ pot with his whole range here.
MP Range Distribution

Assuming he will be betting quite thin for value here,
Betting range: #A,#E,#F
Check Raising range: (#B,#C):Ahh and some 44+:hh from #A range
Check calling: #B,#C (without the NFD) and #D
We could split #A range out alittle and place it in our c/r and c/c range too but its alittle hard to do in PJ as we are running out of space.
Check folding: #G
5. SB range distribution

SB strategy should be a reaction to MP’s strategy so the equity you see on top of the bar graph is sub range vs MP’s betting range.
Interestingly even against a thin value betting range our 32,37 only have 48% equity against villain range so we wont be raising these hands.
Check/raise: #A (we will randomly be slowplaying #A:ss which is 1.88% of range),#C and #F(don’t need to raise all of #F)
Check/call: #B,#D,#E,#G,#A:ss
Check/fold: #H
SB Range: $FI15!$3B4O:(32,37,45,46,56,44,55,(86,85,84,76,75,74)!(87,73,32),JJ:(Qhh,Khh,Ahh),QQ:(Qhh,Khh,Ahh),K:(Qhh,Khh,Ahh),AA:(Qhh,Khh,Ahh))
MP Range: $FI20:(32,37,78,45,46,56,44,55,66,88,77,8:hh,7:hh)
This range is a pain in the arse to input in PPT and I might have gotten it wrong so double check if you really want to make sure.

We have 65% equity vs villains range here so about top 25% of hands.
7. NO turn leading range. We don’t have enough 87 and villain range is ahead.
8. MP turn range distribution
MP should be 2barrel often here:

Betting range: #A,#B,#D,#E (about ½ of #E)
Checking back: #C (because this hands do not want to get check/raise), Remaing of #E range.
I cant quite make up my mind about 44+ without flush draws but I do think we want to bet for protection against SB range that is heavy in FD and SD.
While 45+ without flushdraws are just bet/folding trying to deny opponents equity and folding since we are far behind a stack off range.
9. SB turn range distribution

Given turn SPR of 4.6 we wont be check/raise bluffing here. But we will have some semi-bluffs.
Check/Raise: #A,#B, some #E/#F.
Check/Call: #C,#D,#G, and the remaining of #E,#F that we didn’t raise.
The reason we have some semi-bluff with the bottom of our calling range is to make villain indifferent with his non-nut hands. Against opponents that wont notice and stack off anyway we will wont be semi-bluffing here but calling with those hands.
Check/fold #H
We are check/calling a lot and it would seem that on blank rivers we will have a tough time c/c but I think that is just how c/c vs barrelling ranges work. I might be wrong and we shld be slowplaying more but I don’t see a point doing tt being 4.6 SPR.
10. I would have a more polarizing bet sizing and ranges.
11. After doing the range analysis I think a ½ pot bet sizing can work here but it does put you into tougher spots vs a check/raise since you have weaker made hands. But if you have good reads on opponents raising frequency and ranges it will work.
12. SB actual hand equity vs MP’s turn range

Assume MP is stacking off with #A,#B,#C.
This is a tough decision and I keep going back and forth with it trying to analyse different river scenarios.
The only way to figure this out is to analysis all river scenario but who have the time for that. So I will make some really general assumptions to analyse river play to determine turn play.
I have done some river analysis but wont go into detail because of how complicated the calculation could be and the amount of assumptions it takes. But I did conclude check/raising here is more +EV than check calling and playing a river.
13. Too much too say here. Lets explore what range imbalances our opponent can have.
1. Too nut heavy
2. Too bluff heavy
3. Too medium str heavy
Against (1), we wld be folding our 2nd/3rd straight at some point if not the flop. Our draws are more valuable here and we probably should be slow playing more.
Against (2), we can check/raise light semi-bluff more. We get fold equity and at the same time protect our equity against his bluffs.
Against (3) which is our opponent here (given the ranges I made up), as you can see I constructed the flop raising range to be strong with nuts and strong semi bluff that are dominating our opponent range and some weak bluff blocker hands. We will be bluff catching lighter too the river because of MPs wide value range, our non-nut straights and sets have more value.
That was a long post, thanks for the quiz. Hope this answer is reasonable and I like to hear any criticism on it. Cheers.

April 24, 2016 | 4:52 a.m.

Got a question right at minute 25:00 about the TT53ccdd hand.

What range did you give BTN for calling the lead?

The turn card makes its awkward for our hand. But I actually dont think its a bad card for our range right? All our 87 and possible turn 7 high straights are leading the flop as well, wouldnt it be better to bet this as a semi bluff?

Feb. 18, 2016 | 3:13 p.m.

Yea, ran the numbers on PJ giving a tight range for a reraise of Acc,QT+. It seems if short stack shove and both fold, we call. If the deep stack raises we fold. If button raises we have a slightly +EV shove.

I do think an actual raising range from the BTN would actually be stronger than Acc,QT+ and if we didnt pot cbet this spot, its actually a fold vs a BTN raise because your odds would be worse since there is less in the pot. So in practice we are only getting it in vs the short stack.

Jan. 9, 2016 | 10:23 a.m.

Yea, should have folded preflop.

After some thought, I think betting to protect our equity is the better play. However, I am not convince that there is any difference when facing a raise that is pot size vs non pot size. Given the SPR, any reasonable raise will make the turn SPR <1. To me, this means their raising ranges would be the same if they raise 3x or Pot.

Jan. 8, 2016 | 6:58 p.m.

Hand History | kitsune posted in PLO: 50PLOz: Multiway with medium strength hand
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) BN: $56.89
SB: $99.43
BB: $78.75
UTG: $75.19 (Hero)
MP: $28.48
CO: $666.36
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is UTG with K 9 5 Q
Hero raises to $1.75, MP calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75, BN calls $1.75, 2 folds
Flop ($7.75) 3 Q T

Jan. 8, 2016 | 7:25 a.m.

Thx for the reply. That was the plan. Putting yourself into villains shoes, what is the worst hand you are calling with vs a pot size shove?

March 11, 2015 | 12:07 a.m.

minraise seems ok in a vacuum but very awkward if we do get shove since we dont have the nuts. And I dont know what we are bluffing here with a minraise.

March 11, 2015 | 12:04 a.m.

minraise seems ok in a vacuum but very awkward if we do get shove since we dont have the nuts. And I dont know what we are bluffing here with a minraise.

March 11, 2015 | 12:04 a.m.

Its just a BvB single raise pot facing 3 barrel cbet.

March 9, 2015 | 1:09 a.m.

Facing 3barrel from regular BvB situation with 66 on Jd6c8sKh5h. River bet was 80 into 120. Effective stack size is 380 (before calling). So a shove would be just a little more than pot.

Villain cbet flop/turn/river stat is 49/36/33. Villain is open raising BvB 29% incase you find this relevant to your decision.

Q1: Do I shove here or just call here?

Q2: Raise turn or call turn? I'm slowplaying turn alittle more lately to protect my river range since most of my flop call range would not want to raise the turn for value except for KJ+.

*no HH cause I play on WPN and cant find a converter.

March 8, 2015 | 8:17 a.m.

Rewatched it, for some reason I thought hero calls all KK. Obviously I was wrong. lol

I guess it does make sense if thats the case. I do have another question, why does the model make sure hero plays a felting range that makes EV of QQ's XB the same as bluffing? This is like saying in general the model always x/c the river with a range that makes villains medium strength hands that have showdown value indifferent to bluff or XB. I have never really thought of GTO that way.

March 4, 2015 | 8:34 a.m.

Hey Nick,

My bad, the time stamp is 18:25 into the video.

March 3, 2015 | 1:31 p.m.

Hi Nick,

Love it that you are using GTORB to do your analysis. Got a few thoughts.

I dont see why villain would bluff QQ when checked to on that river when no better folds. If its a +EV bluff its because heroes range folds too much. But the EV of checking back should be higher since QQ will lose more vs heroes calling range (which is also the same range that beats QQ if it checks back) and will win the same amount against heroes air range. Unless I am wrong here, GTORB is making a mistake since GTO must take the most +EV line.

On another note, watching your 4bet videos make me realize you seem to put all AA as slowplays (calls) vs a 4bet? Is slowplaying AA here preflop better than say maybe slowplaying 1/2 of AA or maybe 1/2 AA + 1/2 KK? And I also dont think alot of regulars are actually slowplaying AA much in 3bet/4bet spots in late positions/resteal positions. (not on my network at least)

March 3, 2015 | 2 a.m.

I always thought low boards was actually better for the 3better in terms of equity because of all our over pairs and better Ax? Yea, check/raising flop is certainly a good option that cant really go wrong because of our equity.

However, the awkward spot imo is when I decide to cbet instead and that turn comes. Since I cant really rep a straight what is my best play here with AQdd? do I bet or x/c or x/raise? What do I do with flop value hands (overpairs)? While x/c might never seem like a bad option, our range on the river when a blanks comes is only overpairs and if we are x/c the turn with AA then we have to x/c the river as well with one pairs which is a tough spot imo. It makes our opponents range really easy to play and ours range really weak relatively.

Jan. 18, 2015 | 8:57 p.m.

Post | kitsune posted in NLHE: 400NL: 3bet/OOP AQdd on 746dd5

Hey, playing at winning poker network and cant seem to figure out how to convert the hand history so I will just go old school and explain the spot.

I 3bet AQdd in SB vs BTN and cbet my nut flush draw+overs on 764dd. We will just threat villain as a TAG regular with no specific reads and 100bb deep. How would you play AQdd and your range here?

While this kind of awkward spot doesnt happen very often I still find I need to analyze this spot more. It is certainly one of those spots that stops me in my track while I am playing and have no clue what is the best thing to do here.

Would also be interesting to know how you guys will play this hand on this flop if you are deep.

Jan. 18, 2015 | 7:35 a.m.

Yea, I think I was just over thinking this spot. lol

I was just thinking that villain will 2/3 barrel a lot in these spots and AJo cant take the heat and dont improve enough. And what is worst is improving a J which is good for the hand will probably shut villains bluffing range down. So the only good card is an Ace.

But after rereading what I wrote I realize I can just start check/calling will majority of my strong hands as well (two pairs/sets/straights) and let my opponent bluff off. However this means that I wont be check raising much at all if ever to protect all my one pair hands on this flop. At least that is my conclusion.

Jan. 13, 2015 | 8:05 a.m.

Was playing earlier and called a preflop raise MPvsBB with AhJs and the flop comes QJ9dd. I am trying to think more critically of my whole range in different spots and this one is just looking at this flop I think this is a rather tough spot for my hand.

What is the best strategy when facing a cbet? Its a simple question but I suspect the answer would be rather complicated. I am talking about your whole range here and where does AJo without a diamond falls.

Jan. 13, 2015 | 2:34 a.m.

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