It's a valid strategy. Depends on villain. Some players like 3-betting wide and then blasting off. Against those players you can argue calling JJ and calling down.
The issue with preflop calling is allowing them to already realize a decent chunk of their equity (seeing 3 cards) and often seeing a free one down the line if they don't cbet a lot and we don't checkraise flop.
I'm more inclined making this play with stronger pocket pairs or when we have position.
July 5, 2020 | 4:49 a.m.
I'm calling this. Seems likely a player like this is spazzing more than 25%. And that's all we need.
Not having spade is nice, blocking QT which is decent part of limpers range as well is solid. Prefer TT over AA for example for that reason.
July 4, 2020 | 12:01 p.m.
If you think he's 3-betting you light then 4-betting JJ is solid.
That doesn't mean he's 5-bet jamming on you light, keep that in mind. We need to call 77 to win 201.5. If we give him AK and QQ+ then we have 36.19%. We need 38.21%. If we add AQs then JJ gets to 38.08%. We need 5 combo's of AQ to be jammed as well before JJ gets above the breakpoint. If instead of AQs we add 2 combo's of A5s we get above the breakpoint.
This is all prerake as well. So after rake we'll need to add more combinations.
So it's up to you to decide if he would be jamming wide enough to call or not.
Folding JJ here does not mean that 4-betting JJ is a mistake.
July 4, 2020 | 7:15 a.m.
If BTN calls and you're still 4-way. And then this guy decides to get it in I'm just folding without getting a Full House on the river.
The amount of strength this guy is showing by betting into 3 people 3 times is pretty big.
If BTN folds and he does that I'm still folding. So basically calling to hope river checks through or makes you a full house.
July 4, 2020 | 6:56 a.m.
AJo etc might be profitable in a vacuum but there's still 2 players behind to act. What do you do against a squeeze? You don't always see a flop. When you see a flop you don't always get to see a turn, etc... . You just don't get to always realize your equity. I think this is called hot/cold equity but not sure on the term.
It might be better to cut your equity to 60%, mainly seeing the flop. Then cut that 60% with another % based on the amount of times you expect to get squeezed. You will notice those marginal hands suddenly don't seem that appealing. Still not that clear as we can float, bluff, etc... . But you get the idea.
This is a reason why 3-bet or fold is somewhat popular. Less squeezes, more equity realization (no cbets against you). It isn't because 3-bet or fold is better, players are just making less mistakes playing like that.
July 3, 2020 | 2:37 p.m.
What's the idea behind the raise preflop? Isolation? Overlimping isn't bad perse with speculative hands.
I would bet bigger on the flop. This is a clear fish, might as well go for maximum value. The bigger we make our flop size the more we can bet on the river.
As played, river completes JT but that's the only hand I can see beating us. Can still get value from worse so jam seems fine.
July 3, 2020 | 8:37 a.m.
Any merit to raising the flop, so action killing card doesn't come i.e he has JJ and turn is Ace?
Sure, against that part of his range. But if he has Ax and an Ace comes now he starts paying us off where else he would've folded. It's a two way thing.
What are your thoughts on this?
I like raising as well when they are cbetting too often. A raise allows us to bluff more and deny equity, protect our paired hands and get value with 7x.
The downside is that we are isolating ourselves against a stronger part of their range with our thin value hands. And our strong hands don't really need to raise.
I would go for 2.5x raising as an exploit and bluff a lot. Overcards being preferable, blocking TXs.
July 3, 2020 | 7:41 a.m.
I am thinking that a fish might call any Jack pair that he could have here
Depends on the fish. Some overcall, some overfold. But I agree it's easier for them to be overcalling here.
Why are you saying that we're going to bet the river often when we bet the turn as a bluff?
Because a turn bluff won't generate enough folds imo because the J makes their range more pair heavy, with most having gutshots alongside it. So the idea behind a turn bluff is to barrel river.
July 3, 2020 | 7:20 a.m.
Learning exact GTO isn't really doable. But yes, if you could it would be winning.
What most people do is look at GTO solves and figure out why a solver is doing something. Then they put that concept into practice in their game.
I am a fan of Peter Clarke and Henry Lister for Essential Videos.
July 3, 2020 | 7:14 a.m.
Oh my bad! You mean flatting the initial open, not the 4-bet.
Against shortstackers I'm raising this and getting it in. TT doesn't do that well multiway, even in position. We would be turning a solid hand into a setmine.
July 2, 2020 | 11:33 a.m.
When clicking on the vision GTO banner
The tool Akshar Patel uses is Simple GTO trainer which can be found here.
You can also buy a solver such as GTO+, do solves and use that program to play against the solution.
Still orientating in how I can make the best start.
I would advice buying From the Ground Up. It's $50 for lifetime access to that content and also gets you a month Essential access on RunItOnce. Unless you already have a really good grasp on theory, then you can do the GTO solve drill training.
July 2, 2020 | 9:28 a.m.
What's the alternative? Call and play an SPR of 0.5 doesn't seem that great of an option.
So it's between folding and getting it in. We're priced in against UTG if MP had folded. Now we need to invest 7.54 to win 23.48. It's a bit more complex than just this. It's 1.92 to win 12.24 or 15.69% in the multiway pot and then the rest is risked at 50%. I would say it's a worthwhile jam.
I don't see any merrit in flatting.
July 2, 2020 | 9:22 a.m.
The problem is that we're making so many assumptions that when we get to the river it's a bunch of guessing work. While your logic of range is solid it's a possibility of villains range but not his actual range.
The question I would ask is how many air hands does BB naturally have vs made hands. And how willing would he be to let go of made hands.
So naturally he's going to have a lot of made hands compared to air hands. The J on the turn now makes a lot of air hands made hands. So we should actually start thinking about bluffing on turn already. When we bet turn we are likely going to have to double barrel quite often. So I would argue that when we bet turn as a bluff we would want to follow through a decent amount on the river.
July 2, 2020 | 9:16 a.m.
What are your thoughts on small sizings post flop?
Depends on how many streets you want to play and what you think you will get called by. Bigger flop size sets up for a turn jam. Smaller flop size allows play until the river. As IP we generally want to do equity realization so the smaller option seems more attractive.
I'm not sure about the flop raise in theory. Seems like a spot where SB isn't really making a mistake betting. And we can get stacks in by river anyway due to it being a 3-bet pot. Still good against a calling station.
July 2, 2020 | 6:08 a.m.
Preflop is obviously fine. I'm never considering folding KQo in BB here. SB is different because there's still action behind. If you consider KQo as borderline you can start considering using it as a 3-bet squeeze bluff. It has great blockers.
The multiway part falls away on the flop because CO and BTN folded. MP likely is making a mistake betting here theory wise.
Our strong hands would be KQ, K7s, Q7s, 77. 14 combo's in total. Can do checkraise but with so few combo's and the flop connecting decent with MP I would rather not. I doubt we want to checkraise merged with Qx and A7 type hands either.
Seems well played.
July 2, 2020 | 6:01 a.m.
On these monotone boards you want to be careful. BTN should have more flushes compared to BB who doesn't always 3-bet the same hands preflop. Because of this you will be checking flop a lot so I like the check. The checkraise is likely still good, mainly targetting AQ. I don't see many AsX that are flushdraws. We block AJo so there's ATo only? Which also has a gutshot so is still doing fine against us. Still, raising a set here will be fine because when we're behind we have a decent change of improving. But I'm not sure if we should have a checkraising range. Our preflop advantage of AA, AK, KK becomes reduced when the flop comes like this. Might simplify and not checkraise here. When we do checkraise I like using JJ.
I don't get why we slow down on the turn. If BTN did have the few AsX hands we are now giving him a free card. If we bet we also can bet smaller, setting up a river jam or save us some money on this river. When we check and face this betsize we don't have any fold equity. So then you should wonder if BTN has enough weaker hands that are playing like this. Seems unlikely.
July 2, 2020 | 5:46 a.m.
Do you have some ideas for who you might get for coaching?
I did like Qing yes. The issue there is that his study would come with PIO solves and aggregated reports. While I have GTO+ so would need to invest in PIO as well.
I'm also considering Peter Clarke. He offers 5 1-on-1 lessons for ~500 pounds. I really did like his course on RIO From the Ground Up.
Those are my top2 for sure.
Super valuable study on the x/raising strategy, I'm keen on looking a bit more closely at it.
Thanks. If you want the solves as well I can upload them. They're GTO+ solves.
July 2, 2020 | 5:32 a.m.
So you're saying he is cbetting too often with a large size?
How does this person respond to raises? How often are they betting turn/river or do they give up then?
In theory the higher their betsize the more polarized they should be and we should checkraise polarized. But if they are betting with this size too often with weaker made hands then we raise a decent amount of top pair as well. Or start calling down lighter than usual.
July 1, 2020 | 1:37 p.m.
The top of the first image is cut off. Wouldn't know which stat is what.
Seems you are a bit passive postflop as the preflop caller. Not often applying pressure to cbets in an environment where people are cbetting too often.
If you want you can send me a database export and I can look through it. Or we can set up a call and work that way. I want you to succeed goddamnit!
July 1, 2020 | 1:34 p.m.
Yay! Grats to all.
July 1, 2020 | 1:29 p.m.
I would think Multivariate Data Analysis. It means you realize the process has a lot of variables and you test a bunch of them. A more common approach in Poker is testing one or two. For example "Which betsize should I use?" and "Should I bet or check?".
Although I have no clue how this would apply to poker doing a lot of variables.
I'm more confused about "A Nick Howard approach". Isn't that just exploitative play maximizing your current EV and saying "Fuck balance"?