Multiway IP should get to bet very often IP as all other ranges are pressured by the other players also in the hand.
Once flop checks through and turn is as good a blank that opportunity goes to CO. Given he checks turn I wouldn't put him on 9x ever and almost no 8x.
He can have a made hand by the river. The amount of air hands are just much more and it becomes easy to overbluff, especially for a half pot bet.
Jan. 30, 2021 | 3:33 p.m.
I don't see why we'd need to turn our hand into a bluff on the river. Likely has some showdown. Given the betsize you used you're saying you have Kx or better, maybe some pocket pair. In those cases our bluffs should come from hands blocking his Kx a lot. Qd isn't bad for that. Unsure about the A, he needs to flat AK preflop there and not 4bet.
I also think our range prefers a blockbet. Sizing seems too big.
Jan. 30, 2021 | 8:55 a.m.
Flop sizing seems big in a 3bet pot on this board. Although I would estimate that solver does this at some frequency.
Generally when turn is a card that misses our flop bluff hands (air) we check often on the turn. When it's a card that connects well with our air hands then we bet often. In this case the 6 misses a lot of our air hands (overcards). It does connect with some, making 2nd pair. Would cbet polarized. Can mix in this hand at some frequency. Keep in mind we check often on turn with our range.
Jan. 30, 2021 | 8:52 a.m.
I would fold turn. There shouldn't be a lot of offsuit hands in his range outside of pocket pairs with a diamond. AQo UTG should fold for example. Due to this I find it hard for OOP to find natural bluffs. He has to get creative to find the bluffs he needs.
So fold. Can even consider flop fold.
Jan. 30, 2021 | 8:48 a.m.
It seems unlikely that he checked 9x twice with only one to act behind. CO should very often bet on turn. And the 9 is as good as a blank.
I would call and look him up, especially for 57 into 104. Only have to be good ~25% off the time.
Jan. 30, 2021 | 8:46 a.m.
It seems that you're still deep enough to just call. Would select other hands to bluff with.
Doubt it can be a big mistake though. Often have lots of equity here with nut flushdraw and overcards.
Your flop sizing could've been lower btw.
Jan. 30, 2021 | 8:42 a.m.
H1: I would call high pocket pairs that block their JXs hands. Do keep in mind that we are checking always so have all Jx anyway. It's no shame folding overpairs. I do wonder how AA plays compared to KK. AA makes it so they bluff more often as they don't have A high showdown I'd say.
H2: I would valuebet bigger tbh. Even with AA-JJ. As played you call made hands that beat Tx.
Jan. 29, 2021 | 8:04 a.m.
I don't like the flop cbet. Especially not for 1/2 pot. Multiway and all. Would check very often or go for a small size.
As played I would call and call down on a blank-ish runout. Seems unlikely BTN has us beat often with a 3b cc range.
Jan. 29, 2021 | 7:59 a.m.
Depends on the size. We should have a bunch of stronger hands than KT to call with if he goes big. If he goes small I would call.
I like that you mention that you check some TP on turn as it implies you generally blockbet here.
Jan. 29, 2021 | 7:57 a.m.
I find his raise on the flop normal. I'd prefer checkraising flop on your end. OOP cbets aren't as common as you think. Only K high flops are cbet at a high frequency OOP. All the rest seem to be below 30% (with few exceptions). Just checkraise.
As played I would fold river. In theory this might be a call. In practice I would consider this to be a heavily underbluffed line.
Jan. 28, 2021 | 2:05 p.m.
I don't think this is a good flop bet. You are multiway due to the BB also coming in. Being up against 2 ranges OOP I prefer to check entire range and play that way. Multiway is different than being headsup postflop.
As played I would give up on turn or bet. Easy to say as those are the two options but hear me out. BTN is a fish as he limped BTN here. When we cbet flop and he calls he can have any made hand (pocket pair, bottom pair, Tx, Ax), gutshots, flushdraws, random air.
Normally I would bet again. Our hand does well against it with often overcards etc. On top of that our range doesn't mind betting either.
There is a possibility though that this is a fish that isn't folding. Or that just bets all the air hands he called with on the flop. In those cases you check with your range, often the intention to raise with pure value.
Personally I would play my hand face up against a fish. Which would mean checking.
Jan. 28, 2021 | 2:01 p.m.
I would check on the turn with range. It's a card that I'd expect solver to check on quite often.
River is another though one. Flushes do get there. Likely another river we are checking on very often.
Doubt blocking is a thing on the river. Can see some reasons for it though. Hard to play.
Will look into this later and let you know my findings!
Jan. 28, 2021 | 11:21 a.m.
It's hard to say if it's too much. It's a ntaural adjustment when OOP cbets too often.
When OOP cbets too often the checking range overfolds vs flop float bets. This observation you have is correct, it just isn't a clear mistake from players as it naturally exploits the other observation.
Your adjustment is a good one. Check very often. Checkraise very often.
Jan. 28, 2021 | 10:54 a.m.
I agree with your preflop reasoning that your sizing wasn't good. Standard squeeze size when there's an RFI and 1 cold caller is around 5x the opening size. It's all about odds being given. Being OOP (SB) gives you even more incentive to size up and reduce the stack to pot ratio.
As played I like the check on the flop. You are multiway on a board that is likely to hit other people as well. I find the flop play fine.
Turn I'm not sure. You have a gutshot, overpair and a 2nd nut flushdraw. His sizing is below on the lower end. I would call.
Jan. 28, 2021 | 7:44 a.m.
Weird line from SB. I don't mind raising or calling flop.
I'd agree with Kuduku that calling flop seems more appealing to allow SB to bluff off random hands.
Getting it all in on the flop can't be bad either.
I do find your raise size on the flop to be on the large size. There's no reason to go this big IP.
Jan. 27, 2021 | 3:56 p.m.
Not really a great runout for your range. Would polarize on turn which you did. River is another ugly card due to the polarization on turn. Would check and give up often or jam.
I would say with AQ either is fine. Doubtfull we have a non zero showdown. Would prefer having diamonds but we'll need to bet hands like this to bluff often enough.
Don't mind the check either.
Pros for shoving is that we fold hands like KT/T9s/TT, maybe KQs
Is he folding those?
Jan. 27, 2021 | 1:43 p.m.
I'm not certain about the microstakes at GG. At Pokerstars microstakes players tend to underfold to 3bets, mainly from early position opens. Fish underfold in all positions, regulars underfold in UTG and MP. This is for 25NL Regular tables PS.
Barreling too much is a hard thing. There's a lot of difference for board texture and positions. My findings are that people cbet way too often OOP.
Jan. 27, 2021 | 9:55 a.m.
So, it appears that Pio likes to polarize the flop c-betting strategy the most on JT7s, where it likes the small betting option the least. It comes the closest to the range betting strategy on the A87r flop, where it most frequently chooses the small betting option. Finally, although it doesn't favor range-betting on 744r, it nevertheless checks this flop at a lower frequency (23%) than it does on the most favorable JT7ss flop (27%)
On JT7 the board is very dynamic. Almost all turn cards change the hand strengths significantly. When this occurs the initial aggressor is trying to get in as much money as possible. This is even more the case for OOP. You will notice that OOP will also checkraise quite often.
Looks like you're capable of digging through data and finding decent reasons behind it. Nice!