lion777

I think the hand is WP.
Occasionally I think he will show up with like 88/TT/JJ, 9x for value that we lose to, and like 55, 3x/6x/Ax that we beat.

I don’t like betting flop w/ this hand since we are basically targeting like 9x, TT-QQ, Kx to fold which would often require multiple barrels against un unknown opponent.

The hands that he is x/f flop is prob something like 65s, A2s etc. which doesn’t improve that often against us.

This is a good flop spot to bet hands like JT/QT/QJ where we can continue betting turn/river and we have also can bluff if the flush draw gets there.

Flop looks fine, turn is a call.
Even though its not optimal villain will show up with AsKx/AsAx sometimes and him just shipping looks more like hand that wants protection (pair+fd, 2pair, small flushes) than the really nutted ones which should make villains range weaker.

+1
Against most players I'm never folding anything in my value range in villain's shoes otr since people tend to take these lines too often with bluffs and too randomly with value, so I kinda feels we are targeting AK/AQ-type hands that decided to call turn and bluff river.

Initially I think u have to have a more clear cut plan for when/if villain 4bets if we are gonna 3bet.

Don't mind just flatting the 4bet since we get a good price and it's play we can balance out by doing it sometimes with KK+.

Generally people don't 4bet bluff CO vs BB too often and the 16 combos of AK might just call and not 4bet range so shipping seems a bit too wide in my book.

My tournament game is so so but isn't 99 a 4bet shove, btn vs bb, 33bb eff?

As played pretty gross turn spot but I do feel people spazz out to much with a lot of chips invested to fold this.

Think your range assumption of villain pf is too tight given that even though villain seems nitty, sample size is small and that's just an awesome squeeze spot so QQ+/AK seems way too narrow.

As played I'm snap calling turn. Bet/folding seems bad.

Generally I don't think it's a good idea to try and get people off trips in this spot, most will just close their eyes and call down.

Actually think I like a turn check + bet river if he gives up to get him off A/K-high hands since I think it's really hard get him off the strongest part of his range unless we go bet turn + 2x pot river which I don't like in this spot.

Like the turn donk however I feel river is way too thin to go for value. I'm not sure about FR ranges but I guess he might not have 33/55 in his opening range and we are blocking 78 so have trouble seeing worse calling river.

River is kinda tough spot though but think I'm checking to reevaluate/induce bluff. If u think he's always bluffing the AcKx, AcQx, AcJx-hands plus turning some pairs like 1010/JJ into a bluff it might a good spot to go x/c.

Yeah prob comes down to how often villain is bluff catching with AQ+ in this spot

Prob not balanced bet size wise on this river which might be a leak.
Villain should only value raise QQ+, but even those might just be a call if played like this since hero has JJ+ in spot also.

Tend to bet Jx sometimes, x/c sometimes.

Prob don't have a x/r range here since I wanna bet and get value from a big part of his range that often check behinds. Villain taking this line with QQ+ seems weird.

Yeah, 56s/A5s are def 3bet vs regs and 44 often a fold. With that said I do often see a part of the player population playing those hands in their calling range and tend to not assume that villain knows where I put those hands in my range.

Assuming our value range is either broad as 44-77/56s/A5s or narrower 55-77 I still feel this is a spot where our range is mostly value. People just don't bluff these spots enough I feel and I think is line almost always folds out Qx/KK/AA which is mostly what I'm targeting.

As played out I think we got a bit unlucky in this certain spot lol ;), Villain's exact hand(67) blocks our sets and this surely will be in the absolute bottom of his calling range.

But yeah you make a good point that or value range might be thinner than I first thought. =)

Yup, agree with turn size possibly being slightly bigger. I do think there is some merits to a smaller sizing since if villain calls turn w/ Qx/KK/AA we are giving worse odds for him to call river we ship it. But yeah that's pretty insignificant.

I think it looks alright but since you didn't post any villain reads/stats, and since I would never make this play readless(if we do this readless I don't like it since random villain can call 8x+) I find hard to judge how good of a play this is.

I think the standard TAG reg will fold 98/87/99/TT most of the time on this runout though, unless you have a crazy rep. =)

Yeah I really don't like just calling pf unless we have reads that a several players behind us are spewtards that loves to 3bet+. Generally this isn't the case live but people do love to call just because we 3bet early position I don't think we are gonna lose that much action.

As played I think shoving river is too thin.

Furthermore with these stacksizes I assume he's always shoving a FD otf so even as played this is a call.

Might go bigger pf, depends on dynamics and how often players call 3bets.

Flop I don't see a reason to bet small, he's not folding 7x or 88+.

Turn is a shove. He has 88+ with(or without) a club that can call.

Cliffnotes:
- OP spewed/tilted away his $2K roll in a month
- OP says he can still beat the games though
- OP guarantees a 100% ROI within a week

No needs to thank me, investors will probably come any second now =)

Just call, missed draws and the K is good card to bluff for him.

Turning this hand into a bluff in this spot would be just awful, trying to fold out Kx+.
To bluff whatsoever in this spot is bad, what r u reppin? K9? K7? Wouldn't those hands just call?

To try and balance your range at NL10 by checking back flop with this hand is wrong. You are likely missing out on a ton of value so flop is always a cbet.

As played, turn is always a raise since he will have Ax-hands and draws that ain't folding.

As played it's really close, I mean I'm not sure but isn't some players at these stakes like shoving AK/A10 for value in this spot sometimes? I think I might call expecting to beat often.

But really biggest mistakes are flop and turn play imo

fold turn

WP
He has a ton of worse hands to call with, like Ax, worse 2pairs and like the occasional hero calls w/ like Kx.

Sizing ott might be a little small but not that much.

This is one of those hands we're we just have to go bet-bet-bet since we get called from a lot worse and also if we say check the river villain will sometimes check back worse that he would've called off with and also shove better and we hate life but sigh call hoping he value shoves worse or turns a like KQ/QJ into a bluff which is hoping for much at these stakes. =)

I think a lot of fish would play their AA/99/33 this way. Sometimes we are chopping. Even against a hand like QcJc we have like 53% equity and that's best case scenario.
Unless I have a read that villain is maniac this is prob a sigh fold.

"sizings are messed up, I raised to 6 and co made it 18"

Standard call pf then obv.

I would never have a donk lead range in this particular spot.
99 is also an awful hand to it with, since if we get called we are gonna have to check every non Q/9-turn and be in an awful spot if one villain bets since they may do with both their Qx hands and draw hands.

This is a x/c or x/f otf depending on villain reads/bet sizings.

If we were in the BB calling, with MP opening and SB calling, I like a donk range much more on Q63cc, especially if MP is reg and SB is a fish. In this particular spot with a hand like Qx w/ weak kicker I really like donking since it forces MP to play his hand face up/not getting creative w/ fish in pot and we also protect a vulnerable hand + gets value from SBs draw/weak pair hands.

I think this is a bet, agree with saulo about a smaller sizing.

I don't think he's betting Qx here on the river checked to, especially since his Qx hands that he checks back otf will often be with medium/weak kicker looking for a easy showdown, even AQ might check back if played this way since he might think we are checking to jam our strong value hands.

Also he's not calling Qx if you check jam river so by betting we assure we get value from those hands instead of him checking back like a QJ/Q10-type hand.

Nice post.
Figured I'm often only calling w/ 10x ott so therefore i wasn't inclined to raising but I get your by be able to rep harder otr
Agree w/ sizing.

Impossible to answer your question since it would be so villain read dependent but if anything bumping it up to 9x on the BB with A3o in a 6-way limped pot at 2/5 is just awful, people are not limp folding and trying to run people over oop post flop at small stakes is not a good idea.