m_zeal

Sick sick spot. I guess fold.

I think this is just such an insane spot to bluff. He can't even have a7, but the odd flop timeout or super unlikely trap just seem more likely to me.

Villains river range is not one where we really want to do this with our range.  There are about 6 combos total that he could have that we push off a chop ( j10, jj).  We win like 10 $ here IF he folds.  he has 3 combos off 99, a few combos of flushes where we lose 25$. 

The strategy of getting js to fold and qs to call also seems a bit muddy. 

Also are you check-raising sets and flush draws on this turn? You look like a jack and then overbet with a river that seems bad for our range.

I think the river thinking was pretty clever when looking at villains range and eliminating lots of diamonds and full houses.  But with narrow strong ranges on the river I think we need a bit more of a clear strategy to start overbetting.

I feel like our hand still has good showdown equity which makes me hesitant to take this line. Yes we block lots of full houses but I think the bulk of his calling range is flushes anyway.

To really use our 5 blocker we can check jam or develop an over bet range.  Again our nice showdown value makes me like a check jam.

Don't really like it.

We have about 15 better value combos and I cannot think of many bluffs unless we bluff ak and low pp here. Given this we are essentially bluffing with aq with a large river sizing.

Villain also needs to call with worse here.  Given that he may have some AA, KK still in his range he needs to hero call pretty often if he has a reasonably tight range here.

Great video. I think the combination of starting off with a general strategy discussion, such as outlining a 3 street strategy, then really breaking down the ranges and assumptions in a hand really works well.

You outlined a board where our range dominated villains. If villains range dominated the flop would you be more inclined to take a polarized 2 street strategy and create a strong checking range.

I think a shove is good.  We don't really have a continuing range other then flush draws and sets here given action. 

Flatting:

Our implied odds on a diamond are not great. Our K and Q outs get less valuable as ak,aq are allowed to stay in the pot. 

Shoving: 

Given that we have 9 set combos in our range we should be able to balance a lot of flush draws in a shoving range.

I think raising is probably my standard. Stack sizing is a bit awkward on the river so I don't mind getting in now. 

A reason for calling is to have a strong calling hand when our 89,99,1010 type hands brick.  But this only really happens on 2,3,4,k, j and we aren't thrilled when those are flush cards either. 

We can also balance our bluffs on the river when we get checked to. There are two issues here though; firstly I don't know how often blanks are going to be checked, secondly we don't have a ton of draws getting to river given villains large sizing 

I think you can fold here.

I'd assume that this is pretty close to the bottom of your value range in this spot so you aren't really exploited by folding.

Also his flop calling range is almost all value. He needs to be turning a hand like kj into a bluff here.

You have plenty of showdown value to check call and that would probably be my standard. If you are going to triple I would prefer if the ace was a heart so you can overbet when flushes hit.  

As played check river.

Seems pretty standard.  You have TONS of value here which will print money if villain is calling this light.

If you are concerned about getting run over when you check then check some turned aces. If you bet here what aren't you continuing with on the turn?

check fold.

your really only capping your own range and giving others a decent price to call w a much harder to define range.

UTG will almost never have 88-1010 with you closing the action behind him and so little invested.  

You are pretty face up but with so much in the middle I think you just have to bet /go with it on the flop.  Even when you get called I think you are in  decent shape.

You don't induce much by checking so just get it in now IMO.

I think a lot of the merit of this strategy is realizing equity. Going back to Tyler Forrester's video where he dissected options for aq oop on a low dry board, something like 873r we see that we have a lot of equity but neither a standard c bet or check call were profitable options. With a wide and small c bet range we can protect these hands and arguably realize equity with a large part of our range. Sauce, since that video, has used this betsize in similar spots oop. 

With an uncapped range we can still apply pressure on later streets as well as protect ourselves from overbets.

If we have narrowed his range to flush draws and better sets / straights isn't there some merit in considering a flop flat. 

This increases the chance of the fish coming along and putting in money with a crappy hand. We also can comfortably let go of our hand on flushes without odds to draw to a boat. 

Downside to doing this is that he can take a free card on turns with missed draws while continuing to bet for value.

I don't think #1 applies. In this example if we bet extremely large it would be with the nut flush and nut flush blockers. Villain cannot simply wait for the nuts to pick us off because we always block the nuts. So if we take the AKQ example, villain will be stuck with the K trying to defend against us.

As others have said I think we can go bigger or smaller. 

If this is our most frequent line with asqo and an occasional line w asko asjo then we have 5-8 pretty solid bluff combos. When you polarize your river range to flushes and bluffs we need to play almost all of our axs this way to balance. 

That being said, villain may not put you on that many asxo making a river call pretty tricky.

Seems a bit low. Making an alias compiled of regulars to compare win rates against is helpful in spots like this.

sb: bit low

bb: ok

ep: really low

mp: ok

co: good

btn: crushing

I have a big sample of regulars for the zoom 100 pool.  Against their positional win rates as well as mine this is how i think you stack up.

You talk a bit about your adjustment to a his low flop check fold after his a6 call down around minute 30.

If I understood correctly you are making more low equity double barrels on turns we dominate.

Are you making further adjustments to the frequency and composition of flop c bets?

I adjust by tightening my c-bet frequency and leaning trying to play hands that can double barrel more frequently. 

It seems like you may not make these adjustments when you have a range advantage.

Think I fold here.

We are getting around 38% odds.

If he has a value range of: aa, kk, 1/2 qq aqs, aqo.

We need a bluff range of: Aks, 1/4 ako.

I don't see bluffs this often.

I think I like a xc river here. Given that ak is an easy 3b I assume we are 3betting pretty wide for value ( jj+ ak ?). I assume standard turn would be to xc with a lot of these value hands. So now we are on the river with a king hi flush that is pretty high up in our river range vs a LAGs shove. 

 I am not fist pumping. Villain calling pre and flop doesnt give him a huge bluffing range but I think with a passive line and strong value we cant fold here.

I'm torn here between a small cr and a large one.  We probably don't have many bluffs here which makes me lean towards a size like 16-18.  

On the other hand, we are in a spot where a big raise is also appealing. Villain is somewhat capped from having aa/kk so I also like a xr to 30-35.

Thanks for the input guys. I did a bit of modelling on the situation and it definitely points to the bet fold everyone is advocating.

Ya I am 3-betting to isolate here. I am pretty comfortable playing an unknown in position in a 3b pot so the fact that he was probably weaker was enough justification for me.

Hey Ben,

Really liked the video, probably my fav so far. Thought the pace and level of detail were great. 

Interesting to see how much your game evolves video to video.

Gonna try to find a few questions to ask.