navstar

Could you elaborate a little more on the decision to fold the 76o in the BB at 48:00 in? You even say the 75o would be a comfortable fold for you. Even against a tighter EP opener we have around 30% equity needed to call. Just curious of your thoughts, as previously I would call in this spot without hesitation. Maybe I can get a deeper understanding from your response. Loving the video series, thanks in advance.

Hey John,

at 43:00 you shove for K8dd for around 14BB effective. While I definitely think most players are overfolding blind vs blind, I generally always limp/fold K8 in this spot at these depths. At these depths I would always play limp/fold, limp/call, shove. And am folding the bottom 5-7% perhaps. Should that always fit in an open shove range?

Am I being too nitty? Also, can debate the merits of his call with K6? Thanks.

Its close but a shove still. Its actually close enough that if you had any reads that people are calling too wide/tight you can fold this with no problem. However, against "normal players" with 12ish BB just stick it in.
Also, you will most certainly get called by worse in tournaments like this, so dont be afraid to stick it in and ride it out.

4 bet pre is way too small, at these stakes people make calling mistakes all the time and you should punish them with larger 3-4bets.
As a general rule, you probably shouldn't min-raise 4bet OOP.

I would have made it anywhere from 4.20 - 5-00. That would have made the pot over $9 giving you proper odds to just pile your money in on the flop. Why check? your range still connects insanely with this board. BB has tons of one pair plus draw hands yuo are still ahead of.

And why fold getting 4-1 on the turn? You can still be ahead, and are not realizing all of your equity. Do some work in flopzilla and equilab and run the board and your cards and against his 3bet range, you would be surprised.

TLDR; 4 bet larger, and don't be afraid to stack off on the flop. Dont fold getting 4-1 on this board

This is rough. I do not want to give chips to a player like Duhamel, and he looks really strong here to be honest. He never makes this move without a stong-ish range. I think AA, KK, and AK are strong possibilities. He also has tons of draws with overs to you like QJhh, Axhh or even KQhh where he already has you dominated. You are only getting 2 to 1, and I think we are just behind. I hate it, but I may fold.

Also, I much prefer a flat pre. You mentioned the BB only has 8k. If he shoves, duhamel is handcuffed and can only call with the top of his range, when he calls you can set-mine/fold, and when he folds you have an easy snap call. I don't think Duhamel is folding the button that much to you, and I prefer to 3bet different types of hands against him. I would probably play 9s for set value only, with the exception of some dry boards.

As played, I still c-bet he as to fold tons of hands that he calls 3bets with.

Sucks because you are always getting called, but you have to go for it. If the other players are paying attention at all (they are) they will not want to go broke before you. This is also ICM. With 6 BB and the blinds approaching you, nobody will want to play a big pot at all. However, like I said the opener will never be folding.

This is very helpful thanks.

In summary, 88 and 99 are so close that we may want to pass it up if we think that we can outplay opponents with skill and ICM. We should also pass because weaker players will be calling incorrectly wide. Totally makes sense to me!

I could see value in a video explaining hands where you passed on marginal spots in ICM/Final table spots. I feel like a lot of players who watch this video would see a pair of 3s with 13ish BB and just stick it in because its "standard." I imagine that would be very difficult to compile though.

Good video as always,
At 5:35 I found your spot with 3s very interesting. In that spot I find a fold quite easily, for all the reasons you discussed. However, my mind wandered to what we would do when we look down at 66-99?? I feel at our depth TT+ becomes an easy reshove. Hopefully you agree?

I was hoping you could talk about other pocket pairs in this scenario. I would imagine its always shove or fold, but would like to hear your thoughts.

Against opponents I have no read on, who I am assumed I am more skilled then, I will only limp from the SB (completing) and it is a smaller range.
If I know its a better player (defending the BB correctly, reraising an acceptable frequency, etc.), I suppose I would develop a limping range from the cutoff and later only. Probably small pocket pairs, and small suited connectors, perhaps weak suited Ks as well. Against these better opponents my SB limping range becomes much, much wider as well.
Personally I try not to limp at all, I do not wish to have to balance my ranges, and choose to come in for a raise with my entire range.

Yeah I totally agree. Player and table dependent. I was think "GTO in a vacuum" type thing.

I don't find these stats to be particularly aggressive. However, I do think this is a fold, and I'm glad you found one.

You start the hand with around 12 BB, it should really just be a shove.

Easy shove, turbo structure with 4.62 BB and ATo. Pretty standard actually. Im probably shoving this hand from that position until I have 11-14 BB, I would like to hear other players cut-offs though.

Yeah I would snap it off the second I saw the ace, you're correct in assuming his shoving range is huge. Actually 75% is close, probably way wider. I may even snap a huge range because we are so short. Hero just needs to accumulate chips and this is a great place to start.

Awesome! That's exactly the kind of hand you were hoping to fold with that line. I would put him on a weaker K, maybe KJ or even K9, K8. K8 actually makes a lot of sense because he picked up outs on the turn, and if he is loose he would not be afraid to open it.

Also, no reason to show at all. Muck that hand like it was the god damn nuts.

I meant to type around 20 BB, I counted it as 17 BB (just from rounding up). You should definitely be considering antes and such, but we are still not short enough to stop defending.

He doesn't have to shove an overpair, but I see some players play them like that against shorter stacks. The problem (for you) when he plays it like this is his range is wide open, meaning it could consist if some top pairs. You have to take into account previous hands, and your image and decide from there.

The first couple pay out jumps are large, and if you think you have a skill advantage over the other 2 short stacks, you could wait for a better spot if you so choose.

Pre: I think this is always an auto defend when we have 20+ BBs as you do. Totally +EV, especially against a middle position range.

Post: I think villain knows you have a c/s stack, caught a piece of the board wants to avoid a decision. That being said, if villain is balanced he/she should have some Jx in there as well if this play is made often. Tougher spot, and totally villain dependent. If you think he/she makes this play with the straight draw and back door flush, your 8 blocks the straights and you have middle pair. Probable villain has two overs (accounting for draws.) What are the payouts?? Barring anything weird, I probably stick it in.

I don't think you should ever be folding K9s on the button, like ever. Way too nitty, and exploitable.

Its just one of those situations you cant help. That's a weird way to play aces though. GG i guess.

ohhhh I misread. I doubt that shove affected his perception of your ranges at all. I look forward to seeing. Im going with two overs and a flush draw especially out of the sb

We're in the money, villain is probably not flatting pocket pairs 10+, he is probably check raising a 9, a flush draw, or is just c/r because he thinks you are opening super wide from the button. This could also just be a board he c/r from the blinds often. Its hard to rep much on this board, but you actually have TP 2nd K.

This is a fold or shove decision, and since you said he is a little on the LAG side, I think it leans towards a shove. Especially, since he just doubled you up he could be tilting, but that is something you would need to pick up on your own. I probably would've jammed and prayed to be against a worse 9. I would like to hear opposing thoughts though!! Results of hand?

Your m number is 2.36. This means you can make it just over 2 more orbits before you blind out. You currently have 7.8 BB. Not a lot to work with, but at a full ring when you're UTG this is just not a shove. A comment above suggests you study the nash equilibrium charts, and that's a great place to get information on what is a standard shove/fold. Next hand you will be in the BB, where you can call off a shove much wider, or perhaps even reshove against a steal (with almost no fold equity though).

Nash says with 8 players left to act and 8BB (antes in play) you can profitably shove the following: 22+ A3s+ A9o+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s 98s

If only you were suited right? Fold and wait for a better spot, as you will generally always find one! It's just holding up when you get there.

I love the line you took. If your read on yourself is right (villain thinks you're tight) he should be folding almost everything but sets. You're representing top set (maybe even a set of 10s you backed into), any backdoor flush with the Kh (so top pair), and probably AA as well. Its such a strong line.

To me, It seems like villain has a weak king and will fold to this bet way more than the 40% you need. I like that you mentioned the stare down, unless players are always using the stare I find it to be a relatively accurate tell of weakness.

Also, I like your 3bet in position with this hand occasionally, especially if villain showed down 7-4s from the HJ already.

The way the board ran out, I probably would've checked back flop and c/r turn. However, the river shove may not have worked then. Such an interesting run out for your hand, many possibilities. Can you tell me the results?

Nice analysis!! I'm usually not a fan of saying we need to defend x% or call x% because everything is so situation dependent, but this was good!

San Martino's check on the river allows Ivey to make this play. Totally caps his range, he has no more strong flushes, absolutely no sets (even less likely due to flop c/r in my opinion). Notice how fast Ivey shoved after the check, if San Martino had went for thin value, Ivey would've fake tanked at least a bit to balance his harder decision time. Anyway, that check allows Ivey to shove incredibly wide. I don't even think its completely polarized, I would suppose Ivey could be shoving all flushes as well. He has many different combos of value that beats a straight. San Martino would probably not agree since he decided to call with his straight, which is basically a bluff catcher as played. San Martino probably leveled himself into thinking that it was a full house or air, and decided to make the call. I wonder how much history there is between these two, and if that played into it as well.

When I analyzed the hand, I found it very hard to find combos of bluff type hands that make it to the river like this (for Ivey). The only hands that make any sense are the ace of hearts with one pair, even more likely if it was a 7. Would Ivey shove a 7 though?? I am not convinced he would. In my mind, I thought it was a fold. I would also like to say I am not a professional and have never played against Ivey so its pretty meaningless.

I don't think we need to play this passively. Why would you give up the lead? Why not c-bet after you make TPTK?

You are giving him the opportunity to make the exact plays that he did. You showed no strength on any street, so he probably thought he could blow you off a weak king or queen. If he had a hand with any weak showdown value, he would most likely be checking.

Villains bet sizing is setting up a perfect river shove. People don't always bet less when they have good hands. In fact, when blinds are 20-35 BBs deep this sizing pattern is common to be setting up river shoves. Good players will be doing this with all nut type hands, busted draws, and occasionally air. So when you estimated villains sizing if he/she had AK (which is hard because we have two blockers and the board has one), it doesn't necessarily have to be like that.

I think villain plays his nut flush draws like this, its totally conceivable that villain flatted AJdd or A10dd here (because the K and Q of diamonds are accounted for. That does make it harder for him to have some busted draw hands like this) I think AJs makes a lot of sense, nut flush and a gutshot. KQ is also likely. But by giving up the lead and just calling its really hard to know where you stand. If you really want to check, why not go for a check raise? Most likely for value, and if you get shoved on you can reevaluate.

Why fold river? The 5h changes absolutely nothing. If you thought you were ahead on flop and turn, you are most certainly still ahead now. Its just hard to imagine we don't have the best hand.

Also, you say he's trying to trap with premium pairs? Like what pairs did you have in mind? Since you opened in early position, villain is more likely to 3bet with value hands because you are likely to have a strong enough holding to call. There is one A, two K, and one Q spoken for making it harder for villain to have these holdings, but I think AA and QQ are just usually a 3bet in tournys like this if villain had them.

I think its a call personally, but I don't think you should be giving up the lead here. I would only give up my betting lead if I smashed the board and my opponent was super aggressive. Giving up the lead is what put you in this situation.

I think when MP calls we can put him on a small pp 4-10's, or maybe suited broadway cards. I think once he flats the open your 3bet should be much much larger, you gave them great odds to come along. With the pot already at 2300, and 3x the open is 2550, I think you should just three bet to pot here. AJo is a good hand but not a monster, I don't even think this is a mandatory 3bet.

With villain being the big stack, and opening wide, you can squeeze aggressively. I would rather do it with pure value like JJ+, or an implied odds hand like 78s. But if you are inclined, nothing wrong with squeezing in position, especially if you think he is getting out of line UTG.

We smashed this flop, there's two people in the hand, and once we 3bet this is a board we would continue on a lot. I think our CBet should be large here, probably like 4k - 4.3k. This will make it easier to get our stack in on later streets (as we will usually win on this runout).

Its a snap call, you have top two and villain could be bluffing because of your small(ish) turn sizing. If I have no reads on the villain, I am making this call immediately. With the stack sizes and such probably should have 3bet more and Cbet a higher amount in order to shove turn. Just bad luck if villain did beat you. Your review does not say, what did villain have??