This type of exercise is somewhat pointless (I guess you can understand certain differences between textures but if thats what you really want you can study equity and equity distribution specifically) because those EVs will only happen at equillibrium - a pair of strategies playing unexploitably. In real life, you and your opponents will play very far from equillibrium, which will then result in completely different EVs for both strategies. For example, you might study this and end up with the result that checking range loses X% of EV in a WYZ texture. However, in real life, if your opponent is making a lot of mistakes vs your range check, then you are actually making more money than having a cbet strategy. Not considering exploitative adjustments in poker is extremely counter productive and misleading
Feb. 21, 2019 | 4:27 p.m.
The hero's EV is down 6bb per 100, even though he is still playing the
GTO strategy. The hero's EV decreases by more than the buttons EV,
even though the button is the player making a mistake! If you imagine
that every player plays GTO in all positions, except for the one fishy
player who is too tight on the button, what happens to the hero's
winrate? He wins 19bb / 100 on the button, loses 17bb / 100 on the
small blind, and loses 8bb / 100 on the big blind, for an average of
-2bb / 100. Playing GTO poker in 3+ way scenarios can lose money if there is a fishy player at the table who is not playing GTO.
This thought process also doesn't seem to consider that when the BTN shoves a tigher range than he should, even tho we make less money by calling with the same GTO range from before, we face the opportunity to shove vs the BB more often, which then should help increase the EV of our overall SB strategy
Feb. 14, 2019 | 4:25 p.m.
Well you basically conclude that playing a GTO strategy vs any other strategy is not maximizing EV. That is true for any scenario, not only multiway pots. Using GTO ranges for HU scenarios for example is not maximizing EV either, since no one is playing GTO preflop.
Feb. 14, 2019 | 4:17 p.m.
Ok time for an update because holy shit lol I just had the sickest run of my life. Honestly I don't think I'll ever run this good again until I die.
You saw correctly...57 buy-ins in less than 20k hands. This is insane. Here is a variance simulation based on my current winrate...I mean, this is insane. What most likely happened here was that I ran incredibly good in: card distribution, board distribution, player pool and my own performance. Truly amazing to be able to make this amount of money in the timespan of a week. Its also good to catch some heat after running 7k usd below all-in EV in january.
I'm currently looking for 1 more student. If you are interested, send PM.
I'm streaming occasionally on twitch, and for most of this week's winnings I was live at my channel. I won't have a schedule or anything, will just stream when I feel like it, which is usually when I need to improve my focus and concentration. It seems like my level of play gets quite high during streams which is good. I don't do it too often cause its tiring, but its fun.
Alright, some cool hands now:
GL to all and thanks for reading <3
Feb. 10, 2019 | 3:10 a.m.
Hey buddy, very nice that you found our blogs to be of some value to you. To answer your questions:
1) Depends on what kind of work you want to do, in terms of how detailed/precise you want to be. For analyzing turn and river you will need a lot of hands, like 50M+. You need much less for preflop/flop stats.
2) Regular tables is the only option. Poker is poker so you shouldnt expect drastic differences. The only difference is that people generally play tighter VPIP on zoom games but thats basically it.
3) For someone with little experience its actually quite hard to get something out of this kind of work. Its imperative that you have a very strong theoretical knowledge to be able to interpret the data. A number on a screen won't help you much if you don't know how far away from the equillibrium that is and how to use that to your advantage. But of course, if you have to start somewhere, start with flop lines in spots that happen too often, SRP IP/OOP.
Feb. 5, 2019 | 3:57 p.m.
That's a very hard question to answer. The reason it's hard is because a struggling player is mostly clueless to wether a stat constitutes a leak or not. You need parameters, and those aren't known for an average struggling player (I'm assuming you belong to such category of players since you are asking this).
1st Method: Compare your stats to winning higher stakes players' stats. Even though higher stakes winning players arent perfect, they are certainly doing more correct things than you (again, assuming you are struggling at lower stakes), so using them as a parameter is good enough for your purposes.
2nd Method: Hire a coach to point out those leaks for you.
3rd Method: Develop a deep understanding of theory and player pool tendencies to figure out whether a stat is a leak or not. For example, if you know that GTO Cbets at a very high frequency in position and, on top of that, your player pool overfolds to cbet oop, then having a low cbet frequency IP is certainly a leak.
The 3rd method is the best for your development as a player, but its the hardest and most time consuming. The 2nd method is the least time consuming, and very effective for your development (if the coach is good xD), however its most like the most expensive. The 1st method is likely the least expensive and it doesnt take too much time, but its probably the most ineffective, since the players you might compare yourself to may not be that good and you might misinterpret information in the process.
Jan. 31, 2019 | 6:48 p.m.
Sup Rio! Thought it was time for an update. Even tho I'm not posting anymore, I think its good to update now and then so that there arent huge gaps in the blog because I like reading all of this again eventually.
That said, the main reason I'm writing is to advertise myself as a coach. If this is not okay or not the right place, MODs please delete this post or move it. I currently have 3 students with ongoing classes (but 2 of them have only 1 left). I would like to work with 2 more students. Can't do more than that given the amount of hours I'm using to grind and study.
Here are my results for the past 3 months. That's 60% bodog 40% stars. I'm using the last 3 months as time frame because its since the last time I changed my game significantly, so true winrate estimations for this period will be more accurate. Still a small sample ofc but its unlikely my true winrate is lower than 5bb at this point, which would already be decent. So we are looking at something between 6-8 which I'm very proud of. However there is still a lot of room for improvement.
Also have a few graphs that I asked from my students. The first 3 finished with my course a few months ago, but they are still part of the skype group and they continue to contribute to the discussions and improvement of others. The 4th one almost finished the classes, however hasn't been playing too much due to personal reasons, so small sample. I thought it was still meaningful to post given the crazy disparity between the graphs.
If you play 50nl or higher, are dedicated and willing to put in the work to beat cash games in 2019, I will be happy to work with you. For any more details, please add me on skype and send me a message. I will schedule a skype call with you so that I can show you a bit more of my coaching methodology.
As for this year, I have some agressive volume and winrate goals, but I will keep those to myself. Feeling confident and motivated to have a great year. I've been playing a decent amount of 500nl lately, mostly on stars because it runs more often than on bodog. Hopefully I can make that stake a bigger portion of my daily grind in the upcoming months. It's more swingy for sure, but its more fun and obviously the money is much better. I'm pretty sure I can have a very good winrate by doing pool selection, but the problem is that for most of the day, the pool has an awful reg:rec ratio, sometimes as a bad as 4:1 which is disgusting. 200z for comparison is very frequently running with a ratio better than 2:1, so insanely softer. Eventually will have to embrace the challenge and the swings, because playing a stake that is 2.5x higher might still give a better hourly even if it means having a significantly lower winrate. For now I'll just keep plugging hands when the ratio looks good.
Now, I'm gonna end this with a few hands to make the post more entertaining xD GL everyone, see you in a few months <3
1) Reg saw me bluffing one hand then adjusted lol
2) Inducing the level + blockers argument :D
3) Outplaying one of endbosses in the game
4) Sick spot
5) Outplaying Rio legend
6) Max value
7) Its hard to make a pair
8) Exploiting the rec
9) Really sick spot - folding this vs 99% of people
10) Nothing here, just a fold vs Otb to make it 10 hands
Jan. 18, 2019 | 6:23 a.m.
I wouldn't be at this stake if I ran close to reasonably
You should get out of this mindset asap. Its not variance's fault you haven't moved up. Its yours.
I am down about 45BI (36 below AIEV) at NL5 over 130,000 hands in this time
You are 9bi down in EV over 1300000 hands, which means that in a best case scenario you are a very marginal winner at 5nl. 5nl is an insanely soft stake that can be beaten for very high winrates. So the reality is that you are still playing bad poker, and as soon as you face this, the better for your development and the sooner you will be able to get out of those stakes.
there's not a lot you can do running 36BI below EV besides play more
Yes, there is. First you can start by not caring about things out of your control, such as variance. And then you can start focusing on thins you actually can control, which is your performance at the tables. You will get out of your situation much faster by doing that than trying to put more volume.
Jan. 7, 2019 | 7:25 p.m.
It's not about losing $5 it's about the time grinding micro stakes that that represents
If what you want is to skip micros asap, then play less and study a lot more. No one should spend more than 100k hands at any of microstakes levels
Jan. 7, 2019 | 5:37 p.m.
Hand2Note is your friend mate
Dec. 31, 2018 | 7:35 p.m.
I will be playing the BSOP Millions this next week, its the biggest tournament series in the world besides the WSOP, and I'm selling 60% of my action, of which I already sold 21%.
Here you can check the all the info about the tournaments I want to play, their respective buy-ins, etc. The series starts in a few days.
Send me PM if you are interested in making an investment.
Nov. 26, 2018 | 4:11 a.m.
I should just quickly add that I think there is only one unique environment where trying to mimic gto is incentivized.
If you are playing High Stakes NLHE against the best players in the world, and you do so very often, I think there is no other alternative but to rely on theory and try to mimic it, because most players wont be too exploitable and you shouldnt make yourself exploitable in such environment.
In every single other environment, I don't think there is any incentive. But thats obviously my opinion and everyone is free to disagree.
At the end of the day, you can win money playing many different strategies in poker, so it all depends on which basket you wanna put your eggs xD
Nov. 24, 2018 | 8:11 p.m.
The conversation ended there as the stream ended bu the problem that he did not address was that with the player pool bet sizing reads he still looked uncertain about the fold.
Sup david! Im glad the stream generated some interesting discussion.
The only reason I hesitated in that call/fold decision was because I had very conflicting data points to deal with in that spot:
- Player profile overbluffs very frequently
- Line is overbluffed in most sizings
- Pot sizing is the least bluffed sizing in most spots
- River board runout decreases incentive for bluffing since it hits my range super hard
I would say 90% or more of my river decisions are very automatic since its pretty rare to find a spot where you are have so strong and opposing data points to make a decision. If you watched the stream or continue to watch, you are gonna say that I made/will make tons of very thin bluffcatches without even blinking.
In that specific situation I decided to fold because thats what I think you should always do when you face a grey zone decision - in other words, a decision you can not guarantee to be +EV. In those cases, trying to mimic GTO is a complete waste of energy, in my opinion, because I already came to the conclusion that the investment I'm about to make isn't worth much EV at all, IF any (it could very well just be a -EV investment). On top of that, every decision you make at the tables has an impact on your mindset and your future game quality. Avoiding grey zone investments will preserve your mindset and avoid frustration, allowing you to keep playing your A-game for longer, and using your mental energy in spots where you have a much bigger edge.
Most people just think theory is the answer because they don't know any better. They never cared to study enough or they simply view the game as if everyone was a GTO bot playing mixed strategies everywhere. I don't perceive the game like this. So I will always be trying to maximally exploit my opponents everywhere. And I believe I have a very good framework for doing so, with my large database analysis using H2N. Its obviously impossible to know exactly how population performs in every single spot, but I would say you can get very close.
And when you can't, in my opinion, there is absolutely no reason to rely on an optimal calling frequency for the reasons mentioned above.
To sum up, we can use Tyler's sentence:
If we had perfect reads on the player pool, then we should always go for the max-exploit line.
I completely agree, and I do research every day about multiple (6+) player profiles to understand how they behave in most spots to that I can exploit them. And I believe you can get much more vision than most people believe.
If we have imperfect reads on the player pool, we need to balance.
Here I disagree, because there are other alternatives to GTO poker that will perform very similar in terms of EV and that require much less mental energy and which can actually preserve your mental state during the grind.
Hope that helped with your confusion.
Nov. 24, 2018 | 8:01 p.m.
I have found that when I am on my A game there are close to no language based poker thought process and it's almost exclusively visual
I can relate to that for sure, it happens to me sometimes but not very often I would say. But when I bring all my knowledge and argumetns to the language part of my brain, the decisions become crystal clear for me. It also helps me to prepare future street decisions before hand and with very little effort, which is amazing for the decision making process, avoing mistakes triggered by emotion.
It sounds awesome but it consumes a lot of energy. And when its just a trick for myself, I get tired quickly and just return to silent mode. In the past few streams I made, I was able to mantain the same level of thought process during most of the grind while explaining my thinking process. I'm feeling much more tired after the grind when I stream but I think its definitely worth it.
Nov. 24, 2018 | 6:17 p.m.
It's funny how I always rungood after posting on RIO...
More to come monday, see y'all <3
Nov. 24, 2018 | 3:14 a.m.
Sup everyone, hope you are all well.
Dropping by quickly to invite all of you that have followed my progress in this blog (and in my previous ones too) to join me in my twitch streams!
Yes, I have decided to start streaming for a variety of reasons. The main one being that lately I've been struggling a lot with my work ethic both in terms of grinding hours and focus during the grind.
During all my poker career I always had the habit of forcing myself to explain my thought process out loud to help me concentrate, and that works fine. However, its not the same as explaining myself to real people that are in fact watching me. Its also hard to keep doing this trick for too long, eventually you just get tired and go silent.
The past few days I streamed for about 5-6h and I felt a pretty significant impact in game quality. So I will be spending my grinding hours on stream, and hopefull this will help me with my current struggle.
There are other several benefits to stream that are very appealing to me atm, like social interaction, advertising myself as a poker coach, making the grind less tedious, and so on. I also want to start donating part of my earnings to charitable projects around the world, so I've decided to create a little challenge for myself, which will be to match all the donations made from you during the streams and send them to GiveDirectly. Click here if you want to find out more about this project. So, if you donate $10, GiveDirectly will get $20. If you all combined donate $300, they will get $600. I will match all donations up to 10% of my monthly earnings. So if I finish the month at $3k profit, I will donate up to $300. I think 10% is a good place to start and eventually I will increase this number.
Last but not least, I definitely want to see Rio Poker grow so I will be doing my part in promoting the site when it launches.
I will be waiting for you on stream later today here around 3 hours from now.
GL to all as always <3
Nov. 23, 2018 | 4:25 p.m.
I wouldnt see it like that in the past as well, but our mutual friend opened my eyes about this some time ago.
Ofc you should do whatever you feel like doing, and I also shared a lot of valueble info in my own blogs myself. Whatever you share, being a winner in a competitive industry, is worth a lot of money. But ofc its totally up to you to share it or not.
My problem is not with that, but rather with the attitude of certain people who are always waiting for the right opportuniy to get something out of others willingness to help. It's like that saying (not sure how it translates to english) that in portuguese looks something like "you offer people a hand and they will take your whole arm".
Anyway, I don't want to derail the thread. He just triggered me since I had already seen similar behaviour from him in my thread. If you are fine with it, thats all that matters. I just wanted to point out that I once also felt the way you do now and changed my mind with time.
GL and keep crushing <3
Nov. 3, 2018 | 5:50 p.m.
Okey since you asked... I'll start by asking the most obvious one. ;)
NL100 regs top3 most costly leaks and/or your most common exploits vs pool.
LOL op wants to interact more and people instantly ask for free coaching. That is ridiculous imo. If you want to get better go work on your game or pay for coaching instead of trying to squeeze value out of good people.