I will be playing the BSOP Millions this next week, its the biggest tournament series in the world besides the WSOP, and I'm selling 60% of my action, of which I already sold 21%.
Here you can check the all the info about the tournaments I want to play, their respective buy-ins, etc. The series starts in a few days.
Send me PM if you are interested in making an investment.
Nov. 26, 2018 | 4:11 a.m.
I should just quickly add that I think there is only one unique environment where trying to mimic gto is incentivized.
If you are playing High Stakes NLHE against the best players in the world, and you do so very often, I think there is no other alternative but to rely on theory and try to mimic it, because most players wont be too exploitable and you shouldnt make yourself exploitable in such environment.
In every single other environment, I don't think there is any incentive. But thats obviously my opinion and everyone is free to disagree.
At the end of the day, you can win money playing many different strategies in poker, so it all depends on which basket you wanna put your eggs xD
Nov. 24, 2018 | 8:11 p.m.
The conversation ended there as the stream ended bu the problem that he did not address was that with the player pool bet sizing reads he still looked uncertain about the fold.
Sup david! Im glad the stream generated some interesting discussion.
The only reason I hesitated in that call/fold decision was because I had very conflicting data points to deal with in that spot:
- Player profile overbluffs very frequently
- Line is overbluffed in most sizings
- Pot sizing is the least bluffed sizing in most spots
- River board runout decreases incentive for bluffing since it hits my range super hard
I would say 90% or more of my river decisions are very automatic since its pretty rare to find a spot where you are have so strong and opposing data points to make a decision. If you watched the stream or continue to watch, you are gonna say that I made/will make tons of very thin bluffcatches without even blinking.
In that specific situation I decided to fold because thats what I think you should always do when you face a grey zone decision - in other words, a decision you can not guarantee to be +EV. In those cases, trying to mimic GTO is a complete waste of energy, in my opinion, because I already came to the conclusion that the investment I'm about to make isn't worth much EV at all, IF any (it could very well just be a -EV investment). On top of that, every decision you make at the tables has an impact on your mindset and your future game quality. Avoiding grey zone investments will preserve your mindset and avoid frustration, allowing you to keep playing your A-game for longer, and using your mental energy in spots where you have a much bigger edge.
Most people just think theory is the answer because they don't know any better. They never cared to study enough or they simply view the game as if everyone was a GTO bot playing mixed strategies everywhere. I don't perceive the game like this. So I will always be trying to maximally exploit my opponents everywhere. And I believe I have a very good framework for doing so, with my large database analysis using H2N. Its obviously impossible to know exactly how population performs in every single spot, but I would say you can get very close.
And when you can't, in my opinion, there is absolutely no reason to rely on an optimal calling frequency for the reasons mentioned above.
To sum up, we can use Tyler's sentence:
If we had perfect reads on the player pool, then we should always go for the max-exploit line.
I completely agree, and I do research every day about multiple (6+) player profiles to understand how they behave in most spots to that I can exploit them. And I believe you can get much more vision than most people believe.
If we have imperfect reads on the player pool, we need to balance.
Here I disagree, because there are other alternatives to GTO poker that will perform very similar in terms of EV and that require much less mental energy and which can actually preserve your mental state during the grind.
Hope that helped with your confusion.
Nov. 24, 2018 | 8:01 p.m.
I have found that when I am on my A game there are close to no language based poker thought process and it's almost exclusively visual
I can relate to that for sure, it happens to me sometimes but not very often I would say. But when I bring all my knowledge and argumetns to the language part of my brain, the decisions become crystal clear for me. It also helps me to prepare future street decisions before hand and with very little effort, which is amazing for the decision making process, avoing mistakes triggered by emotion.
It sounds awesome but it consumes a lot of energy. And when its just a trick for myself, I get tired quickly and just return to silent mode. In the past few streams I made, I was able to mantain the same level of thought process during most of the grind while explaining my thinking process. I'm feeling much more tired after the grind when I stream but I think its definitely worth it.
Nov. 24, 2018 | 6:17 p.m.
It's funny how I always rungood after posting on RIO...
More to come monday, see y'all <3
Nov. 24, 2018 | 3:14 a.m.
Sup everyone, hope you are all well.
Dropping by quickly to invite all of you that have followed my progress in this blog (and in my previous ones too) to join me in my twitch streams!
Yes, I have decided to start streaming for a variety of reasons. The main one being that lately I've been struggling a lot with my work ethic both in terms of grinding hours and focus during the grind.
During all my poker career I always had the habit of forcing myself to explain my thought process out loud to help me concentrate, and that works fine. However, its not the same as explaining myself to real people that are in fact watching me. Its also hard to keep doing this trick for too long, eventually you just get tired and go silent.
The past few days I streamed for about 5-6h and I felt a pretty significant impact in game quality. So I will be spending my grinding hours on stream, and hopefull this will help me with my current struggle.
There are other several benefits to stream that are very appealing to me atm, like social interaction, advertising myself as a poker coach, making the grind less tedious, and so on. I also want to start donating part of my earnings to charitable projects around the world, so I've decided to create a little challenge for myself, which will be to match all the donations made from you during the streams and send them to GiveDirectly. Click here if you want to find out more about this project. So, if you donate $10, GiveDirectly will get $20. If you all combined donate $300, they will get $600. I will match all donations up to 10% of my monthly earnings. So if I finish the month at $3k profit, I will donate up to $300. I think 10% is a good place to start and eventually I will increase this number.
Last but not least, I definitely want to see Rio Poker grow so I will be doing my part in promoting the site when it launches.
I will be waiting for you on stream later today here around 3 hours from now.
GL to all as always <3
Nov. 23, 2018 | 4:25 p.m.
I wouldnt see it like that in the past as well, but our mutual friend opened my eyes about this some time ago.
Ofc you should do whatever you feel like doing, and I also shared a lot of valueble info in my own blogs myself. Whatever you share, being a winner in a competitive industry, is worth a lot of money. But ofc its totally up to you to share it or not.
My problem is not with that, but rather with the attitude of certain people who are always waiting for the right opportuniy to get something out of others willingness to help. It's like that saying (not sure how it translates to english) that in portuguese looks something like "you offer people a hand and they will take your whole arm".
Anyway, I don't want to derail the thread. He just triggered me since I had already seen similar behaviour from him in my thread. If you are fine with it, thats all that matters. I just wanted to point out that I once also felt the way you do now and changed my mind with time.
GL and keep crushing <3
Nov. 3, 2018 | 5:50 p.m.
Okey since you asked... I'll start by asking the most obvious one. ;)
NL100 regs top3 most costly leaks and/or your most common exploits vs pool.
LOL op wants to interact more and people instantly ask for free coaching. That is ridiculous imo. If you want to get better go work on your game or pay for coaching instead of trying to squeeze value out of good people.
Nov. 2, 2018 | 5:45 p.m.
Update and farewell
Long time since last update so its time for a new one. And I think I will make this the last one in poker forums. I don't really see the point of posting anymore.
So, September was a month where I definitively learned that QUALITY > QUANTITY. I was upset about my low volume for the year and impulsively decided to start playing 6 tables of zoom to make up for it. That was a terrible decision. After 2 weeks I was feeling super tired and I was playing super bad. Here are the results for these first 2 weeks. After that I decided I wouldn't ever focus on quantity again, and dropped to 2/3 tables while studying a lot as well. Changed a few things in my game and things got back to normal.
This has been a very good year poker wise, not only in terms of results but overall improvement in my techinical and mental game. I learned and keep learning a lot from my friend Mateus, which I'm grateful for. I have had many students that were able to improve a lot and move up in stakes, which I'm very proud of.
However, I failed at finding the balance that I said I wanted to pursue when I created this blog. I have neglected major areas of my life and have developed very bad habits. So, with that in mind, I will cut down some of the time I currently devote to poker, and force myself to take care of the rest of my life. I got used to working 8-9 hours a day, and I will cut that to 6-7. And since I will be spending less time working, I want to be more productive as well, which means spending less time on forums, skype and other possible distractions. These extra hours will be spent taking care of my health and social life, mainly.
I will leave you guys with my YTD graph. I have also made around 8k with coaching this year, which puts me at around 53k profit. Happy overall, but there is certainly a lot of room for improvement. And that's a pursuit that never ends.
I wish you all good luck with your poker endeavours. But don't forget: you need more than poker in your life. Don't let it be your everything.
Oct. 8, 2018 | 2:37 a.m.
Imo you should actually work on your understanding of fundamentals before you continue down this path. The fact that you expected turn to change from locking one river shows that you still don't quite understand how EVs work.
But to answer your question, I can't speak for GTO+ cuz I don't use it. I know that Pio Solver automatically locks strategically equivalent cards, which is a nice feature. But thats all. Most of the time, if you want an accurate exploitative adjusment for turns and rivers, you will have to node lock many cards. You obviously don't need to lock all to arrive at a conclusion tho. Sometimes, after locking a few different runouts you can already see the incentive shifting strategic options
Oct. 6, 2018 | 4:06 a.m.
How many rivers have you locked? The turn strategy isn't going to change if you only lock one river. For every turn you have 48 different possible rivers, so you would need to lock a decent amount of rivers to see an effect on turn strategy.
Oct. 5, 2018 | 9:14 p.m.
The content of the video is really good, so thanks for that. But I feel like the format could be improved a little bit, maybe a 2 part series to make it less dense and also to allow you to go slower. You could also select a few HHs to review and show how this appllies to real life poker
Sept. 25, 2018 | 1:58 a.m.
That looks okay to get started. I used to have a laptop with similar specs, and it would perform decent for what I was doing. That said, you will have to upgrade if you decide to do some heavy solver/ DB work.
As for the monitor, I find the 27'' the best size. I've had 22'' and 32''. Nowadays I use the 27'' for the tables and the 22'' for secundary stuff like browser and etc. I used to only buy LG ones but the newest one I bought is from Dell and I gotta say, I really like it.
Sept. 16, 2018 | 7:20 p.m.
Yeah man, you are either like really really unlucky or you are just a losing player at this point. Which is fine, acknowledging that is the first step towards real improvement.
Its very easy to overestimate our ability in poker when running good, and then blame variance when we lose. Im not saying its your case necessarily, but im pretty sure that most poker players do this to some extent
Sept. 15, 2018 | 10:36 p.m.
A few thoughts
Decided to make this post because there is a lot in my head and hopefully I can organize everything by writing.
I've been doing a lot of MDA lately. The study has widen my vision over the poker industry tremendously, not only in terms of strategy but it allows me to better predict stuff like the longevity of the games. It's amazing to me how:
1) I still have SO MUCH to learn, even after spending hundreds of hours in research;
2) People are extremely exploitable everywhere
3) People are NOT aware that they are extremely exploitable (regs included)
4) And things will stay that way for a long time because no one is doing what it takes to acknowledge the previous 3 points
There is this GTO paranoia in the industry for like what, 3 years now? And yet, if I had to make an analogy, 99% of poker players in 2018 are as far away from optimal poker as a fat 70 year old is from perfoming at Cristiano Ronaldo level in football. Or a turtle from running at Usain Bolt's speed. It's like really really really far.
And on top of this, you have an industry that still doesn't understand how to approach poker in a meaningful way. I'm gonna give an example that will illustrate what I mean.
A lot of thinking poker revolves around the concept of 'Hand Reading'. So based on my opponents actions, I will estimate a range of hands that he could likely hold, and then, based on my guess, I will take whatever I think is an appropriate counter strategy. But what 99% of the people that play poker don't realize is that this is an extremely poor and inefficient decision making process. There are so many ways for this to go wrong:
1) Your guess is totally off because your opponent doesn't perceive the game the way you do, and this is a problem because people do hand reading (most of the time) by projecting how they would play the hand and they expect their opponent to behave the same way.
2) Your guess is totally off because you are using some basic logic to assing a range to villain (like medium hands get checked, strong hands get bet), when in reality he might not be operating under any logic whatsoever, and might be doing the exact opposite (betting medium hands, checking strong hands)
3) Your emotions during the hand might make your 'hand reading skills' even worse by introducing confusion, anxiety, fear that ultimately cause you to rationalize towards the option that satisfies themselves - you will rationalize towards folding if you have fear of failure; you will rationalize towards being over aggressive or calling station when anxious.
4) You have believed a high number of biases that the industry has been propagating over the years, wihch MDA shows are totally incorrect. So during your 'hand reading' process, you assume things such as 'recreationals are passive', or 'people don't turn pairs into bluffs'.
Poker is extremely complex, and yet people approach it like complete amateurs. Its like they try to be a mathematician by daily memorizing whats 2 + 2. Obviously thats fine if you are playing the game just for fun and have no intentions of getting better or learning. But this is professionals I'm taking about. Players that have been doing this for years. People that are making large investments in uncertain spots on the river based on arguments like "Im at the top of my range", or "he NEVER checks XYZ hand on the flop so he has to be bluffing here".
Which gets to my final point: no one cares. There might be like 10 regs around the whole world that are treating poker the way it should be treated. The rest simply doesn't care, and will continue not to care no matter what happens. Either because they are lazy, or not capable of accepting that they have been doing it all wrong all this time.
The future of poker is still really good imo. Today we have the tools that didnt exist before, and we can use them to maximally exploit 99% of our opponents, and they wont even realize or care. Eventually the closed markets will reopen again. The prejudice towards the game will lower over the years, allowing more people to get introduced to it. We have honest and hard working people trying to provide better and fair platforms for the game, like Mr Phil Galfond and his team are doing, and this is 2018. The list is big...
If you have been playing this beautiful game and have been concerned about the negativity towards the profitability of the games, I assure you: if you dedicate yourself, there is no way you can't make a comfortable living out of poker.
Sept. 9, 2018 | 5:25 p.m.
Hey man, thanks
How are you going to manage this kind of volume? With 1k hands / hour thats 9hours of poker every day. Any tips / tricks to manage this? (:
I've always played at least 8 hours a day since I began playing in 2016. I do get a little tired in the last 2 sessions but nothing that would prevent me from playing at a good level.
Personally i wouldnt be able to manage that kind of volume, so that it wouldnt have a great affect on quality of my play. Or is your B- and C-game so solid that you are able to beat games with great margin even while playing your B- or C-game?
Yeah this a factor as well. At this point most decisions are automatic so I don't have to spend much mental energy which should contribute to extended sessions.
All that said, this month is still going to be a challenge for me since the most I've ever played in a month was something like 110k hands. But I think I've set up a great schedule/strucuture to accomplish this, which includes taking one day off per 2 working days, which I think will help me take the proper rest to play at my highest level in all working days.
Sept. 3, 2018 | 3:30 p.m.
Results. Pretty happy about how the last week of the month went. I was running pretty bad and finally catched some heat. I am still struggling with volume and this is something I will try hard to change from now on. I am however improving techinically everyday, and grinding/studying has been a lot of fun.
Selected a few hands of my opponents failed attempts to bluff me:
Goals for September
- 140k hands
- 40 study hours
- 10 days off
Sept. 2, 2018 | 4:40 p.m.
Nice post from Tyler and good observation from Kalupso.
However, I think I have something very important to add here. Which is that simplified strategies will often be significantly higher EV than GTO. Both because 1) your opponents will make huge mistakes vs it and 2) because you will make less mistakes when applying it, compared to a more complex and seemingly higher EV strategy. So when you compare the EV of a GTO strategy vs a simplified-close-to-balanced strategy, you are far far away from the actual difference.
Aug. 31, 2018 | 4:47 p.m.
A few people have contacted me about coaching, and 2 of my students shared their graphs with me yesterday so I thought I should post. They both started classes at the bottom of the graph. They also both start the coaching playing 25nl and are now shot taking 100nl.
This makes me really happy. To be honest, I'm happier about this than my own results. I knew I could be a good coach, and beeing able to see their development and improvement makes me think I was right. Coaching has been an amazing experience for me, and Im sure my students feel the same way.
Right now I'm focusing a lot on my game so I don't plan on taking more than 1 student. If you are interested, send PM and we can talk over skype.
Aug. 25, 2018 | 5:37 p.m.
LOL I'm gonna stop right here because honestly I'm starting to worry that you are schizophrenic or something. And I still have to donate my money to the bots today. Take care man, and please keep spamming all threads, thats great for the forum
Aug. 24, 2018 | 9:10 p.m.
Oh so I'm one the best of the best in the world? or 200nl doesnt count? or am I just lucky and the bots will take all my money soon, when I least expect it?
I will come back in a few months with my 1knl graph so you can call me the best of the best in the world
Aug. 24, 2018 | 9:01 p.m.
That's what I started to realize Saulo. Poker is definitely not for everyone. Fortunately I just love studying this game. Actually I'm obsessed with it. I won't let negative or half-assed people to discourage me any longer.
Nice attitude man. Poker is definitely not for everyone. But if you are dedicated and disciplined, you can definitely get there. GL mate
Aug. 24, 2018 | 8:50 p.m.
I never said anything about the content of what you are saying. I said no one cares about what YOU say because you are extremely annoying, and even if what you are saying is true no one will listen to you.
There will always be problems in poker. There will always be bots, there will always be peope cheating, there may be a few sites that are rigged. It was always like that and it will always be. Its up to you to trust this site or that site. Bigger sites will spend time, money and energy into providing the safest playable environment for their customers. Smaller sites won't spend a dime, no matter how many posts you make on poker forums. In the end, its up to you. Everyone knows this. Spamming threads on Run it once isnt gonna change anything, you are just ruining the forum experience for other people. So stop being annoying please
Aug. 24, 2018 | 8:48 p.m.
Where could one look for such a path? I would definitely like to be more practical.
Nick Howard. Videos here from him, his blog, youtoube channel, hell even on instagram he has good content
Aug. 24, 2018 | 8:41 p.m.
Everytime you see 'poker is dead' or something related online read it as 'poker is not easy money anymore'. Because it isnt. Like it shouldnt be. Just like any other career in the world. But you can still make pretty good money if you become good. Just like in everything else