Wouldnt be surprised if its a 10BI downswing :DDD GL turning it around brother, I'm sure it will happen soon.
I'm not renovating but I am moving to a new place right now I can tell it's stressful af. Really hard to get into grinding mindset before everything settles imo. Perhaps just do more studying during this time, thats what I am doing.
About your new PC, did you get an SSD? That's the most important part imo
April 11, 2019 | 10:28 p.m.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
These days my wife asked me how intelligent one needs to be in order to be a succesful poker player. I don't even remember what I answered, but talking today with one of my students I came to what I think is the best conclusion:
If you want to succeed in poker - and in life - there are 2 things that matter more than intelligence: humility and commitment.
Most people that fail in poker are not stupid. They are just too arrogant and lazy.
Stay humble. Stay committed.
Feb. 26, 2019 | 12:22 a.m.
This type of exercise is somewhat pointless (I guess you can understand certain differences between textures but if thats what you really want you can study equity and equity distribution specifically) because those EVs will only happen at equillibrium - a pair of strategies playing unexploitably. In real life, you and your opponents will play very far from equillibrium, which will then result in completely different EVs for both strategies. For example, you might study this and end up with the result that checking range loses X% of EV in a WYZ texture. However, in real life, if your opponent is making a lot of mistakes vs your range check, then you are actually making more money than having a cbet strategy. Not considering exploitative adjustments in poker is extremely counter productive and misleading
Feb. 21, 2019 | 4:27 p.m.
The hero's EV is down 6bb per 100, even though he is still playing the
GTO strategy. The hero's EV decreases by more than the buttons EV,
even though the button is the player making a mistake! If you imagine
that every player plays GTO in all positions, except for the one fishy
player who is too tight on the button, what happens to the hero's
winrate? He wins 19bb / 100 on the button, loses 17bb / 100 on the
small blind, and loses 8bb / 100 on the big blind, for an average of
-2bb / 100. Playing GTO poker in 3+ way scenarios can lose money if there is a fishy player at the table who is not playing GTO.
This thought process also doesn't seem to consider that when the BTN shoves a tigher range than he should, even tho we make less money by calling with the same GTO range from before, we face the opportunity to shove vs the BB more often, which then should help increase the EV of our overall SB strategy
Feb. 14, 2019 | 4:25 p.m.
Well you basically conclude that playing a GTO strategy vs any other strategy is not maximizing EV. That is true for any scenario, not only multiway pots. Using GTO ranges for HU scenarios for example is not maximizing EV either, since no one is playing GTO preflop.
Feb. 14, 2019 | 4:17 p.m.
Ok time for an update because holy shit lol I just had the sickest run of my life. Honestly I don't think I'll ever run this good again until I die.
You saw correctly...57 buy-ins in less than 20k hands. This is insane. Here is a variance simulation based on my current winrate...I mean, this is insane. What most likely happened here was that I ran incredibly good in: card distribution, board distribution, player pool and my own performance. Truly amazing to be able to make this amount of money in the timespan of a week. Its also good to catch some heat after running 7k usd below all-in EV in january.
I'm currently looking for 1 more student. If you are interested, send PM.
I'm streaming occasionally on twitch, and for most of this week's winnings I was live at my channel. I won't have a schedule or anything, will just stream when I feel like it, which is usually when I need to improve my focus and concentration. It seems like my level of play gets quite high during streams which is good. I don't do it too often cause its tiring, but its fun.
Alright, some cool hands now:
GL to all and thanks for reading <3
Feb. 10, 2019 | 3:10 a.m.
Hey buddy, very nice that you found our blogs to be of some value to you. To answer your questions:
1) Depends on what kind of work you want to do, in terms of how detailed/precise you want to be. For analyzing turn and river you will need a lot of hands, like 50M+. You need much less for preflop/flop stats.
2) Regular tables is the only option. Poker is poker so you shouldnt expect drastic differences. The only difference is that people generally play tighter VPIP on zoom games but thats basically it.
3) For someone with little experience its actually quite hard to get something out of this kind of work. Its imperative that you have a very strong theoretical knowledge to be able to interpret the data. A number on a screen won't help you much if you don't know how far away from the equillibrium that is and how to use that to your advantage. But of course, if you have to start somewhere, start with flop lines in spots that happen too often, SRP IP/OOP.
Feb. 5, 2019 | 3:57 p.m.
That's a very hard question to answer. The reason it's hard is because a struggling player is mostly clueless to wether a stat constitutes a leak or not. You need parameters, and those aren't known for an average struggling player (I'm assuming you belong to such category of players since you are asking this).
1st Method: Compare your stats to winning higher stakes players' stats. Even though higher stakes winning players arent perfect, they are certainly doing more correct things than you (again, assuming you are struggling at lower stakes), so using them as a parameter is good enough for your purposes.
2nd Method: Hire a coach to point out those leaks for you.
3rd Method: Develop a deep understanding of theory and player pool tendencies to figure out whether a stat is a leak or not. For example, if you know that GTO Cbets at a very high frequency in position and, on top of that, your player pool overfolds to cbet oop, then having a low cbet frequency IP is certainly a leak.
The 3rd method is the best for your development as a player, but its the hardest and most time consuming. The 2nd method is the least time consuming, and very effective for your development (if the coach is good xD), however its most like the most expensive. The 1st method is likely the least expensive and it doesnt take too much time, but its probably the most ineffective, since the players you might compare yourself to may not be that good and you might misinterpret information in the process.
Jan. 31, 2019 | 6:48 p.m.
Sup Rio! Thought it was time for an update. Even tho I'm not posting anymore, I think its good to update now and then so that there arent huge gaps in the blog because I like reading all of this again eventually.
That said, the main reason I'm writing is to advertise myself as a coach. If this is not okay or not the right place, MODs please delete this post or move it. I currently have 3 students with ongoing classes (but 2 of them have only 1 left). I would like to work with 2 more students. Can't do more than that given the amount of hours I'm using to grind and study.
Here are my results for the past 3 months. That's 60% bodog 40% stars. I'm using the last 3 months as time frame because its since the last time I changed my game significantly, so true winrate estimations for this period will be more accurate. Still a small sample ofc but its unlikely my true winrate is lower than 5bb at this point, which would already be decent. So we are looking at something between 6-8 which I'm very proud of. However there is still a lot of room for improvement.
Also have a few graphs that I asked from my students. The first 3 finished with my course a few months ago, but they are still part of the skype group and they continue to contribute to the discussions and improvement of others. The 4th one almost finished the classes, however hasn't been playing too much due to personal reasons, so small sample. I thought it was still meaningful to post given the crazy disparity between the graphs.
If you play 50nl or higher, are dedicated and willing to put in the work to beat cash games in 2019, I will be happy to work with you. For any more details, please add me on skype and send me a message. I will schedule a skype call with you so that I can show you a bit more of my coaching methodology.
As for this year, I have some agressive volume and winrate goals, but I will keep those to myself. Feeling confident and motivated to have a great year. I've been playing a decent amount of 500nl lately, mostly on stars because it runs more often than on bodog. Hopefully I can make that stake a bigger portion of my daily grind in the upcoming months. It's more swingy for sure, but its more fun and obviously the money is much better. I'm pretty sure I can have a very good winrate by doing pool selection, but the problem is that for most of the day, the pool has an awful reg:rec ratio, sometimes as a bad as 4:1 which is disgusting. 200z for comparison is very frequently running with a ratio better than 2:1, so insanely softer. Eventually will have to embrace the challenge and the swings, because playing a stake that is 2.5x higher might still give a better hourly even if it means having a significantly lower winrate. For now I'll just keep plugging hands when the ratio looks good.
Now, I'm gonna end this with a few hands to make the post more entertaining xD GL everyone, see you in a few months <3
1) Reg saw me bluffing one hand then adjusted lol
2) Inducing the level + blockers argument :D
3) Outplaying one of endbosses in the game
4) Sick spot
5) Outplaying Rio legend
6) Max value
7) Its hard to make a pair
8) Exploiting the rec
9) Really sick spot - folding this vs 99% of people
10) Nothing here, just a fold vs Otb to make it 10 hands
Jan. 18, 2019 | 6:23 a.m.
I wouldn't be at this stake if I ran close to reasonably
You should get out of this mindset asap. Its not variance's fault you haven't moved up. Its yours.
I am down about 45BI (36 below AIEV) at NL5 over 130,000 hands in this time
You are 9bi down in EV over 1300000 hands, which means that in a best case scenario you are a very marginal winner at 5nl. 5nl is an insanely soft stake that can be beaten for very high winrates. So the reality is that you are still playing bad poker, and as soon as you face this, the better for your development and the sooner you will be able to get out of those stakes.
there's not a lot you can do running 36BI below EV besides play more
Yes, there is. First you can start by not caring about things out of your control, such as variance. And then you can start focusing on thins you actually can control, which is your performance at the tables. You will get out of your situation much faster by doing that than trying to put more volume.
Jan. 7, 2019 | 7:25 p.m.
It's not about losing $5 it's about the time grinding micro stakes that that represents
If what you want is to skip micros asap, then play less and study a lot more. No one should spend more than 100k hands at any of microstakes levels
Jan. 7, 2019 | 5:37 p.m.
Hand2Note is your friend mate