1) You have AcQc7x5x, flop is Tc9c2x, lets say you are certain villain has TT and two random cards, in that case you have 10 out of 43 possible turn cards, so roughly 23% chance of hitting. If you miss with a blank, lets say 7x, then you have 10/42 outs for river, so roughly 24%.
2) Lets say flop is Tc9c2c, and you know villain has Ac and another club Xc with two random cards. You have ThTd4d7s. You have 7 outs to improve out of 43 so ~16%. If turn is blank, say 6x, you now have 10outs/42 possible cards so 24%~ again
But keep in mind the first scenario equity is more complicated, because of both your backdoor redraws and his boat/quads redraw. Second scenario is simpler, he can only redraw to SF/RF and if he doesnt you either hit and win or dont and lose
Nov. 30, 2013 | 12:44 a.m.
i think you should still fold, he cbet into 2 people and bets again on this card which hits everyone's range pretty well. Not to mention he is pretty tight, so if he has a piece here, he likely has a big hand. Is he playing naked AA like this ? I doubt it
Nov. 29, 2013 | 6:49 p.m.
I've struggled with this my whole PLO career, I dont think having a winning redline in zoom is close to optimal. I managed to become a breakeven redline player at my best in plo200 ringgames and still lose in redline in zoom100. I also checked some of the better regs in zoom and they are all losing more in redline, so I wouldnt worry about it that much as long as you are winning overall. Zoom is just so specific, seems to me people's ranges are much stronger postflop than in ringgames and when I barrel I often own myself getting c/raised ott/otr
With that said, I think your aggression numbers are pretty low. Mine are around 38% longterm and one reg I used to talk about who crushed zoom had around 43%. Also I think you could attack steals more from blinds and steal more in general, though I'll admit my VPIP from blinds is similar and theyre by far my biggest money leak
Lastly, I think your VPIP from button is lower than it could be, that's where most of your edge and redline winnings come from
Nov. 29, 2013 | 11:56 a.m.
Preflop is fine, personally I prefer a flat, but ds your hand is good enough to 3bet. Flop and turn are standar, but river bluff is quite bad in my opinion, you block nothing, the whole board smashes villain's range. You even block K, so there's much less KKxx combos to fold out and QQxx/JJxx could fold naked but are extremely likely to have something in side cards to call. Other than that I dont see him folding pretty much anything in his flop calling range
Nov. 25, 2013 | 1:22 a.m.
I think position and villain's flop tendency is key. I'd 4bet it oop, but I'm leaning towards calling IP, unless villain is very honest on flops like 965r with two bdfd etc. You dont really want to get into a situation where you 4bet and face a leadpot shove on a board like that
Nov. 24, 2013 | 10:39 a.m.
Why cant he have a straight or trips? I think those are the majority of his valuerange. The reason its a nice spot for c/r bluff is villain is capped (he isnt checking the flop with sets), hero isnt since he can easily check/call turn with his sets and is blocking T6 boats. Plus wrt balance, if he ever does take this line with TTxx/66xx, its good to be balanced and this hand is one of the best to do it with
Nov. 24, 2013 | 2:03 a.m.
I think when you lead, you should barrel the turn to keep your range uncapped, I think he'd raise JJxx otf, so you wont get raised there a lot and you get to an easier river spot than when you check. I also dont think hes going to bet/fold a lot, or bet/get in stuff you dominate often enough
As played I'd call and jam all good rivers and maybe an 8 too
But I think both bet/betting and checking the flop with the plan to c/r or barrel turn + river if he checks back are better than your line
Nov. 24, 2013 | 1:55 a.m.
If he's a good TAG, you can actually find a fold preflop imo. Since its bvb the SPR will be higher than in a different 3b pot situation and your hand's playability will be pretty bad postflop against his top 10-15% 3bet range. (this is assuming you had Q985s, if you actually had Q985ds disregard)
If he cbets like you say, I'd say its an easy check/call and reevaluate on turn. This hits your perceived range pretty well, so he shouldnt get out of line on later streets
Nov. 23, 2013 | 7:56 p.m.
"Let's say I c/c turn and he bets this big OTR.. Would you find a call?"
I'd fold for sure, you dont block any diamonds and block a lot of straight draws
As to the hand as played, you cannot fold turn with the FH odds you have, river is never a fold, I'm leaning towards c/shoving for value as played, but I'd usually lead
Nov. 23, 2013 | 5:27 p.m.
check and mostly fold based on sizing. You arent really getting exploited here, unless he has AsKJT or similar, he isnt going to be bluffing here. And yeah, he should be never shoving a worse made hand here
Nov. 22, 2013 | 10:13 p.m.
what are his flop stats? afreq % mostly. Agree this is really close, I'd probably sigh get it in with 2 bdfd
Actually, I'm leaning towards folding, as weak as it is. If he's 3betting 8%, he's probably 3betting a lot of combos of AJT*, JT9*, stuff against which you are doing well, so his range should be more set heavy. Then again, he shouldnt necessarily go crazy with 77**
Nov. 21, 2013 | 11:22 p.m.
yes you rep pretty thin, but your range is uncapped, the main draw missed and you have near the bottom of your range otr, so I think you have to bluff here. Your blockers are also meaningful, his best bluffcatching hands should be K5/K6 here
Nov. 21, 2013 | 6:17 p.m.
I would play it the same way and fold river. I think I'd bet/get in flop against this player, like others mentioned his range otf is really wide and he's probably going to continue with weaker hands than he should