2blave

I do not like calling hand one. Curiosity is overvalued in poker. Most players do not have the foresight to develop a balanced bluff approach on boards like this, and I think the general population tends to be stationy. I expect few bluffs.

Hand two is a lot closer, but because he can have a lot of Tx I'd probably fold it too. I don't see why he'd try to block with Ax when he could just bluff catch with them instead.

I also prefer a 4b preflop for the reasons Dario gave. I expect BTN to expand his 3betting range and although playing pots with HJ is appealing it's still better to nearly guarantee the action ends preflop with your particular holding.

I like the lead out because of the rec player in the middle. I assume he's the type to call with any piece, meaning you have plenty of value and would prefer to get the money in as soon as possible without offering either player a chance at a free card. Saying not to lead because the worst possible result happened is just results oriented thinking.

Calling the shove comes down to whether he plays a worse king this way. I think the fact that you donked into the both players makes you look pretty strong, but BTN may not recognise that. I think that QQ/KK/KQ are all better coldcalls than AK preflop, so I don't agree where Dario says that your lead on the flop doesn't make sense. If I was BTN I would perceive your range as probably QQ+, AKo discounted, KQs, KQo discounted, 66 discounted, AdJd, JdTd discounted. If that logic holds I like your fold to the shove.

@James H, I'm not a perfect balance machine in every spot, but I am definitely not showing up with strictly weakish value hands here. This is the size I would bet with my whole range. My thinking at the time was that villain's range was mostly Ax and underpairs, and I wanted to present him with a tough choice when he presumes my range is mainly middle pairs and broadway type hands. I could probably even bet smaller tbh. The reason I can't have a lot of bluffs here is because of my preflop calling range, not my river sizing.

@snapfold, I folded because I felt that if he wanted to bluff he would have tried earlier on a board like this and thus he probably had a value hand, no matter how small his value range is. Like I said earlier in response to some advice I feel that checking the river is worth thinking about, although nobody suggested a plan for when villain bets after I check. Whether my bet here is wrong or right I do think the decision when raised is still interesting, which is why I posted the hand.

"Don't squeeze in this spot if you're not comfortable getting 4 bet (either knowing that you're going to fold or go all in)."

This point is repeated over and over on poker forums, and it's not helpful. The same thing could be said any time hero questions a decision. Generalising this statement quickly turns it into "Don't play poker if you don't already know the answer to every poker question." Is that the point you are trying to make?

This is a spot where regs ranges are going to vary quite a bit from player to player. I think that AA and KK can both be discounted. Some players try to add some balance to their coldcalling (or pf3betting) range, but they are in the minority. Villain's shove also makes KK+ a little less likely imo. I think AK is quite possible still though. The only thing that throws a wrench into this analysis is that it's 200 Zoom where I feel like any time someone goes allin they have the nuts. :D

Generally I would call expecting your worst case equity to be something like against KK-TT,AQs (43%), and improving from there. Once you develop deeper reads on the average zoom player you can change you plan.

Like most HU spots where ranges are potentially wide, it helps to recognise common lines. I see rec players taking this line with a huge array of hands, most of them weak. I could never lay this down for a less than half pot bet. You could really see almost any hand you beat, as well as AcX, queens you chop with, most two pairs, and pocket 3s. I often provide a stove, but I don't think it's very useful here. Just listen to your gut, and if your gut tells you to fold listen to my gut instead. :D

I was looking for value from an underpair or AJ. I agree most people aren't 3betting a UTG raiser with either of those hands, but this guy is a lot wider than normal with his 3bets and he checked two streets. That was my reasoning at the time, but maybe checking river is still superior. If villain bets after I check should I call? If he has no TT- or Ax then it seems like I would still just fold.

I think that the line you took is almost always for value, and villain will know this. Even players that like to run people over don't usually try a b/3b bluff line when their opponent takes a line that is both strong and showdown bound. A pessimistic but realistic take on your equity:

Board: Kc Qd 9h 6h 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 81.250% 81.25% 00.00% 26 0.00 { 77-66, K9s, JTs, T8s, K9o, JTo }
Hand 1: 18.750% 18.75% 00.00% 6 0.00 { KsQh }

So you would need to see 9 bluff combos (or worse value hands such as Q9) to make this a breakeven call. Obviously our opponent has the potential to have many more bluff hands than this, but it's a question of whether he will pull the trigger. My experience says no. Another mark against a potential bluff is that villain can expect you to have all JT in your range when you take this line.

Rush plays nittier than regular games, and you are dealing with passive recreational players. I don't expect a random 30/10 to 4b AK 300bb deep. I think that even QQ might be worth discounting - this is KK almost always. I know it's sick but drop it like it's hot. Just have some faith that you can put villain on a tight range and exploit him.

I'm with you on liking a bet. I doubt villain is folding TP to you, but I also don't think that really matters. The hands you listed all make sense for villain's line, and they add up to 35 combos on this board. I'm having a hard time thinking of enough combos our opponent can have to defend here on a river that is inevitably going to unbalance you towards value hands. Even if he is checking to induce with AQ, AJ, A9s, QJ he has only added 23 combos to bluff catch with.

Sizing is going to depend on your value range, and how many suited aces you play in this spot. A quick estimate on the conservative end of value would be T9s, JTs, TT, KsJs (13 combos) for bluffs, and AJ, AsQs, AsTs, KsTs, KcTc, QJs (16 combos) for value. Although this ratio implies an overbet I think your perceived bluff range might be smaller than it actually is, and if you overbet you might make villain think you are more polarised than you actually are.

With stacks how they are this would lead me to bet 3/4 pot, but maybe the true answer is to just jam all the hands you want to bet and let villain decide whether to hero call or not. Does anyone else prefer overbetting here?

I also think it's a turn fold, mostly because of how many of his diamond draws have a ten in them, as well as both T8s and 87s improving against you. It depends what kind of check/raise range you put villain on, since some players are going to bluff this board without even a piece, but if villain is only check/raising hands that connect with the board in some way this is one of the worst non diamond turns for you. You can probably call any other turn card, depending on how you guess his range.

I started with this range and stoved several different turns, Tx really is one of the worst for you, dropping your equity to about 35% (32% if we add T8s). There's also no guarantee this player is playing all suited kings here, and there's also the chance of an A9 merge. Without KdXd your equity drops to 39% on flop and 26% on the turn.
Board: 9d 6d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.312% 42.31% 00.00% 10891 0.00 { Jd9c }
Hand 1: 57.688% 57.69% 00.00% 14849 0.00 { 99, 66, 22, AdTd, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdTd, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, QdTd, 87s }

Board: 9d 6d 2s Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.528% 34.53% 00.00% 395 0.00 { Jd9c }
Hand 1: 65.472% 65.47% 00.00% 749 0.00 { 99, 66, 22, AdTd, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdTd, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, QdTd, 87s }

"Why is he going to raise Kx ? So I thought that I was against bluffs and FDs"

Why would he play these hands differently? If he always calls top pair and only raises bluffs and flush draws he lets you ship any ace profitably. I think most good regulars at 3/6 have reached the point where the won't be so glaringly unbalanced. This play could be good if you actually had a read backed up by seeing him showdown different types of hands in different spots, but just theorising that his range is inconsistent doesn't justify it.

" given my range that looks extremely polarized and very much weighted towards air."
I disagree with this. Maybe I don't call down enough because I disagree, but this line looks quite monstrous to me. It's so hard to balance check/raising as the PFR, especially deep, so I assume most people do it for value until they show me otherwise. I would put you on sets and overpairs here. That doesn't mean villain won't try a bluff though - FH/Quads is only 10 combos, and JJ/TT/KK/AA is 24. He might see your line as getting defensive with some of those overpairs hoping to induce a bluff, and this is the real problem.

I can certainly concoct a reasonable looking stove where it's a snap call for you
Board: 8d 3s 4d Qs 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 9 0.00 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 13 0.00 { 88, 44-33, AdTd, Ad9d, As8s, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, As5s, Ad3d, Ad2d, As2s, KdQd, 65s }

And if you take out all the missed diamond draws your equity drops to 20%. I feel like you are somewhere in that range. You need 29.7% to call, and if villain bluffs half the flush draws I included above you have 33.3%. This isn't what I expected to say when I started looking at stove, but I think it's a call on the river.

Yes Ax*x means suited aces. If you go to the Simulations page on Propokertools you can click a button labelled Syntax Help that explains the basics of how to input hands. There is also a link within that to a more detailed explanation of their syntax.

As for interpreting the graph I don't know exactly what it means either, but generally I look at the frequency we flop certain equities. For example, what kind of equity do we average at our pot odds precent, which in this case is 11%? Another question to ask is how often we are a favorite postflop. Looking at the graph of A7o it doesn't look very good, even against the widest range. Despite the odds I think these graphs show that our equity isn't good enough to play the flop against villain's estimated range.

I think raising the turn with a Q is an overplay in BTN's shoes. Generally he will either be nutted or fear not getting action from anything but the nuts if he raises. There aren't really any scare cards on this board either. I think he is pretty likely to have Qx given his line, and not too much else, but he might fold actually fold KQ here if you jam. Maybe AQ too? You can certainly represent a lot of strength. I think a fair assumption for BTN's range is AQ, KQ, QJs, JJ, and maybe AdKd depending how ambitious of a turn caller he is. Reads on BTN would help.

I don't really ever coldcall in BB's situation so it's harder for me to guess his range, but AQ, KQs, JJ are the most likely possibilities to me. Again AdKd and AhKh might show up in his range as well. If they both fold AQ then a bluff is profitable for you, but I think that too often one of them will just be unable to lay it down. They will both think about having trips in a big pot and how even a few bluff combos from you justifies a call.

I agree with Lefort. Folding this is crazy.
Board: Ks 5h Td 8h 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 45.16% 04.84% 28 3.00 { KTo }
Hand 1: 50.000% 45.16% 04.84% 28 3.00 { TT, 55, KTs, QJs }

This is only 4 bluff combos, and he could surely have more. I don't see why you highly doubt he has K5s either, and even though it's only 1-2 combos the small number of potential value hands makes it relevant.

Check/calling the turn doesn't make the river any easier to play, and betting has a lot of advantages for other hands in our range. Trips and semibluffs both want the opportunity to three barrel, and to avoid exposing our turn check/call range as always check/folding the river (which it generally has to do) I prefer to bet this hand. I think it has enough value in terms of combined fold equity and occasional showdown equity.

If I checked the turn here it would either be to give up or with JT. I'd rather try to balance a river checking range after betting the turn than check/calling it. That way I can have strong hands like QJ or J9s to protect my check/folds with hands like T8s.

I think a jam gets called as often as a 3/4 bet, or close to it. You are representing a polarised range either way, so it's more about villain's capacity to bluffcatch you. One difficulty I have with these spots is that whether you actually have the nut flush or not creates a very important card removal effect in terms of what villain can have to call you with. Whenever you are bluffing it's possible villain has the nut flush, but when you are value betting you have to rely on your opponent to be heroic.

I think a player like this has a very limited number of second nut flush combos on this board, probably JhTh and JhJx for 4 combos. When you don't have the Kh I'm guessing he only has 0-7 combos containing it, depending on how he plays KJs, KK, and AxKh preflop. These are all maybes to me. The rest of his hands that take this line will probably be TT,99,77,66 with a heart and sets. That's 9 combos that fold almost for sure and 12 maybe but likely folds from the weak flushes. Even with the widest range of Kh and Jh flushes from villain we should try to shove with any hand that missed here.

If you cbet AK-AJ without a heart on this flop that's 27 feasible bluff combos. If you aren't cbetting those hands I'm not sure what hands in your range are going to make the most sense as bluffs. T9s and JTs maybe? I'm not sure what non heart hands you have that bet flop and turn. If it's honestly a low number I can see why you want to bet a non-allin size, but either way I think it's more about the possibility that you have a lot of bluffs from villain's point of view. So if you don't have many bluffs just make an exploitable shove with the nuts here, and if you feel those bluff hands are in your range I would shove those as well as the second nut flush.

I agree w/WM2K. Preflop can go either way imo, but I can't see calling the river. Yes it's exploitable, but I think what will actually happen is you exploit villain. It would be very strange for someone to take this line as a bluff, although the line is strange for value too. "a trap or a mid pair kind of hand" is exactly what I expect to see - trips better kicker or full house.

First of all, I think this is the wrong part of your range to be 4b bluffing with. Having the Ace blocker is nice, but if you do it with every ace blocker that will be too many bluffs for the number of value hands you have. Given that getting called is a real possibility with these stack sizes, I think that you should restrict yourself to suited aces. Broadway hands that you can't call with would also be good choices, so maybe KJo would be a better choice than this hand too. I also question the assumption that this player is 3betting 15% out of position with these stacks - I think most players will decrease their pf3b by at least 5% in this kind of situation.

As for calling, I am against it. The reasoning about it not being in the top 60% of your 4bet range is not really relevant. The real decision is whether you can play A7o profitably against villain's 5bet range. I don't think you can. Even if villain has a reasonable number of bluffs I think it would be unusual for his range to be much larger than 5%. QQ+,AK is 2.6%, so that would be 50% bluffs. Against a 5% range you flop <=17% equity at least half the time according to ProPokerTools.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/graph_hvr?g=he&h1=Ax7y&h2=5%25&s=generic

Even if you widen villain to QQ+,AQ,Axs you don't flop very well.
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/graph_hvr?g=he&h1=Ax7y&h2=QQ%2B%2CAQ%2CAx%2Ax&s=generic

Additionally there is the problem of playability. It's going to be difficult to make good decisions postflop, especially when you hit your ace. Most of the value will come from bluffing the right flops, and some players are going to call unimproved aces in a way that makes this difficult or impossible.