You can really go deep into blockers and range distribtuions and such trying to figure out what to do. SB should have enough 9x to check turn, you dont block essential spades, so he might have some flushdraws, tough he should just x/fold turn most of the time.
Villain can slowplay JJ or 99 quiet often here as well.
In terms of figuring out bluffing hands, you should probably bet something like KJ with 2 spades, some dirty out, but still more EQ when called, also Jx vs a 9, so pretty much same amount of outs as QQxx. Also, blocking Topset is more important.
Either way. Betting will be close to 0 Ev. Checking will be > 0 EV. I dont like betting just "for balance or meta game reasons".
July 24, 2017 | 9:35 a.m.
Well, there is hundreds of hands. Maybe the issue is to play too many hands and slipping in a subtle way. I am pretty sure I can beat the game if I sat down, play fewer hands. But I see no reason to play for 5dollars/hour when the swings or 1 mistake can destroy it. I find it most reasonable to have higher goals than that. Call me a greedy bastard :)
July 23, 2017 | 5:22 p.m.
What is this mystical "evalution process"? Also my feeling dont matter. The game doesnt care, other players dont care, the world does not care. What matters are results. If there are no positve results. Poker is one of the most unrewarding things out there.
July 21, 2017 | 3:57 p.m.
As for inspiration. Noone needs inspiration. Inspiration comes from applying knowledge that leads into positive outocomes, which makes you visualize further success down the road. Inspiration comes naturally and quickly fades if you are anything but delusional.
Limitless is only one example, and I respect and I admire his story, out of hundreds if not thousands of unheard stories of not succeding. I try to avoid the term "failure" as it is malicious in many ways. Look up "survivorship bias".
All the other stories are never shared or talked about. Because it is embarrasing for most to admit publicly. Noone interviews the losers or the just-getting-by players.
As for the micro challenge. There are a multitude of discontinued threads, video series and challenges. Just look in this forum. Most lasted 1 month. Doug Polk, selfproclaimed "best HU player in the world" couldnt beat NL2. NL2, not NL200. His challenge was completly inconsistent, jumping right to PLO50 out of boredom. Exactly what you shouldnt do.
As for solvers. There is no indication that solvers improve ppls game and results drastically. If there is a correlation , it doesnt indicate causation. Crushers like Ben Sulsky use it, but Sulsky also crushed the games long before it came out.
Also as terms of "skill". I cannot 5 bet jam AA better or worse than anyone else. I cannot bet /fold my straight better than anyone else if my opponent only raises flushes, anybody will lose in set over set scenrios. It is just the occurence, the coincidence that matters. You cannot decide the frequency of that occurance, you also cannot decide the frequency of being able to x/raise OTF. You have an array of hands, your range, that you going to play like this, but still, you cannot deliberatly decide that frequency.
Why are many ppls so ingorant to aknowledge, that despite their proclaimed expertise and experience, most big pots are rather naturally played out hands, in which noone of the players involved made a mistake. Look up your own database.
The only reliable income comes from spazzers, thats all. People who put money in the put with low chances of winning. It is that simple.
July 21, 2017 | 1:25 p.m.
I actually didnt want to respond anymore on this topic. But concerning the mental game issues: When I started playing cash games for the first, time, I beat the games easily, I probably didnt exactly know what I was doing precisly, playing way too passive pre and post, but somehow squeezed out a marginal profit over the first 100k hands.
Seeking to approve upon what I have learned, I add nuance to my game, be more balanced with my bluffs, more precise with my betting, more receptive to making plays I hadnt considered to be doing. Results started evening. Yet I kept going, trying to carve any edge I could find.
The mental game issues you are adressing developed over the last 2-3 months, as I finally realized, how much coincidence their is and that long run is a concept, that helps surpressing the compulsatory aspects of gambling in general, yet EV is fictional unless it manifests in results over the long term. There is no long term defined however. There are well respected pros that suffer downswings over 100k hands, altough they are in the game for so long. If there was a change in their results, wouldnt it have to be to the other side, since these player should improve naturally by experience. So how does one dissecet skill from variance?
July 21, 2017 | 1 p.m.
I am not complaining about games being tougher. Players make tons of mistakes. Any motivation improves tough when you filter for your biggest losses and all you see is pretty sick coolers/ suckouts and nothing in between.
July 18, 2017 | 2:11 p.m.
It took me alot of introspection and going back and forth in my head- what and how should I approach things, but I rather make a cut now rather than molding in selfdeception for another couple of years. I dont blame poker I dont blame anyone else, many things are just based on luck or coincidence and it is unproductive dwelling on things that cannot be changed.
July 18, 2017 | 11:19 a.m.
I roughly estimated how much rakeback I did receive in the last 12 months. Roughly 2200-2500 dollars. Now you can estimate the amount I paid in total and rethink your statement. As I said, I might have reached my capacity and I accept it. We live in a objective world that you cannot broodforce your way out of using the right attitude. That is the definition of insanity. Doing things over and over again and expecting things to change.
I also dont fully understand what you are trying to achieve. Why are you mad at me. Do you care if I win or lose? Probably not.
I have plenty of opportunity to become what I personally define succesfull in life. Smart businessmen had their great succeses but also fields in which they flatout failed. So they change the branche or the field they are working in.
I find it sadening that you have that attitude and underline it by a inappropriate of swearing that serves no purpose. You can prove to yourself how easily the games can be beaten by playing NL25 for about 100-200k hands. I do not challenge you to do this, but I suggest you make that experiment and see how far you can go.
"Nick Howard once said, that how you do poker, you do rest of your life and i really belive that and thats why im writing this. You can run away from poker, start something else, maybe even find something that will be more suitable for you, maybe something with way easier field to overcome, but that wont resolve a problem with you having wrong perspective about how things really are. "
I find this quote highly unprecise and unsatisfiying. It is basically mumbling something about mindset but not how to change it. It doesnt question the reality of the games nor that even recreational players can beat you if they get lucky. Nick Howard also cannot prove that he is winning. We still have yet to see a graph. And the fact that he is pushing his training programm so hard is that he might not win at all or being so stressed out by variance that he doesnt play as much poker himself.
July 18, 2017 | 10:05 a.m.
As some of you might know I have been a regular on micro stakes games on several sites and a very active member in this forum. I played for about 4 years, but never managed to move up. Lately I experienced some major downswings which make me technically a losing player for now. I took my game seriiously, reviewing my sessions and hands, reading and watching a ton of poker content, joined several study groups and also putting in a ton of volume ofc. In pokerstars alone I managed to receive supernova status playing only NL25 and PL25 which is irrelevant by now anyways. In my personal life I am considered a very rational, reasonable person, maybe sometimes too rational and unemotional. Yet poker has been a thing that got me hyped, enthusitatic but also angry and depressed, depending on the recent results ofc.
I took poker as a mental and intellectual challenge, yet the more hands I played, the more I believe to hit my boundaries of improving my game and solving game trees, looking for solutions to beat my opponents. I firmly believe that I played a good fundamental and solid style with basically no blundering. Maybe I am wrong and I missed certain points but I think I reached my max level of good play.
It might be bad luck, bad rake structure or indeed I lack something subtle what it takes to become a big winner. I also lost interest in the intellectual challenge, because now I see poker less and less as a deep strategic game and rather as a dull adventure.
I am going to quit onlinepoker once and for all.
But I also learned a lot. I learned to think more well structured, I think I strenghtened my mental resilience overall. I am glad to say that poker did take a lot of time and effort and also money, yet it did not overtake any part of my life or limited my other responsibilities. I feel a bit of remorse, though because I might have done more productive stuff instead of playing and studying poker.
I wanted to thank you as a community for the discussions, the handanalysis and the intellectual exchange on the way. The RIO community is one of the most sophisticated communities with a lot of very smart and ambitious thinkers. I wish you good luck in poker and anywhere else and herby announce my final fold.
July 17, 2017 | 7:18 p.m.
PLO is a game that requires basic understanding of EQ, probabilty of flopping certain made hands and draws and executing it perferctly through out a stretch of 100 of thousands of hands, hoping that luck and variance will even out eventually.
There is no merit in analyzing randomness, trying to rationalize a play that is mostly -EV, even though it will "work" a couple of times for sure. In fact one is wasting potential in other, not so exciting spots.
July 13, 2017 | 4:16 p.m.
Here is a suggestion. Play pokersnowie headsup and see how results turn out. If you crush, you probably have a better strategy than the software thus you shouldnt do what it tells you. I played with poker snowie both sixmax and HU and I crushed more than on microstakes on stars.