I would argue that since you are not particularly happy with TP2K on a relatively dry board after no aggression by villain, it indicates that AQo does not have so much value once you 3bet. I would 3bet much more polarized and do it with something like A4s instead. But I might be wrong, would be interested to hear what others say.
As concerns the flop, I acknowledge we'll have a difficult spot if we get called by 2 or if we face a raise, but it's also the case after a 1/3 pot bet, no? I might be way off here, but I feel like there is so much value to be gained from the whale here with a bigger bet size that it outweighs the negative points.
Feb. 19, 2020 | 4:45 p.m.
I'm not sure if I would squeeze here in the BB. If the stats you're posting are anywhere close to credible, you will be playing in a bloated pot with a mediocre hand OOP. Or did you expect MP to fold to a lot of your 3bets and thus isolating the whale?
OTF, I'm not convinced 1/3 pot is the right pot size when there is a blatant whale involved. I think I would prefer to go a big bigger, like 1/2 pot, because there is a lot of value to be gained from weaker Ax holdings the whale might hold.
OTT, I think C/C is the way to go. OTR, you would need to make your decision based on the players tendencies and the river card - but yeah, its not exactly a money printing spot here anymore.
Feb. 18, 2020 | 1:41 p.m.
I think there are fish that can play this as a bluff, but more often than not, somebody with 58/12 stats is not bluffing here. That being said, I do see him "value"-betting AI with something like KJ or AJ. On the other hand, I wouldnt exclude the occasional Q9 or JT here.
I haven't done the math but if you estimate a spazz frequency of, lets say, 10%, I would assume its a fold and Im tending to do just that.
On another note, I would probably bet bigger on the flop.
Feb. 15, 2020 | 11:50 a.m.
You don't need to think of your own range that much. Both villains seem to be pretty huge fish that I wouldn't expect to catch you play unbalanced. Your concern should be how to get the best out of your current holding.
In the worst case scenario that one of villains has 65, you still have some 35% equity with your NFD. More often than not, you have more than this. Note how in this particular case on the flop, you are a favorite to win the hand at showdown - they cannot big enough for you to make a fold on the flop ever the right play. In fact, it should be in your interst to also keep the BB in the pot.
The shove on the flop is ok, but I would prefer to just call to get BB on board as well. The problem with shoving is that you get called, you are usually up against some high equity - 2Pair, sets, straights - against which you are only a slight favourite. When you call and the turn gives you the flush, you still get stacks in but as a much higher favourite. If it bricks, you usually still have the right odds to call.
Feb. 13, 2020 | 10:08 a.m.
I think the call is fine. For squeezing OOP I would rather choose hands that have good blockers, and MP play fine postflop MW in my opinion.
On the flop, the fold is pretty tight and I would definitely put in a call in here. I would assume CO has a mostly capped range, so that's good for you. The float bet could mean a lot of things. I would assume that BU is a fishy player (considering his stack size)? Do you have any read on him? If he's more of the passive type and shoves on the turn, I think I might find a fold there.
Feb. 12, 2020 | 2:20 p.m.
Those are fair points indeed and I agree I was oversimplifying things a bit.
That being said, there are only 16 overcards that really bother us on the turn, so I'm not yet convinced that is of so much concern. As concerns building the pot, I doubt that we will be able to extract much value when we hit anyway, so again I'm not sure it applies here in this specific spot.
Feb. 11, 2020 | 4 p.m.
Agree with what has been said before, you're pretty much getting the right direct pot odds.
I play regular tables, so it might be different, but donk bets by recs usually imply medium strong or weak hands and only the occasional set. So I'm happy here raising OTF and would take the free card on most turns.
Feb. 10, 2020 | 9:33 a.m.
When I read the thread I wondered whether you bet for value or as a bluff? In spots where it gets blurry, it's probably a good idea to consider a check. In this spot on the flop, I would check and see what develops. You have some showdown equity and an OESD, so quite some runouts will be fine for you.
I think the same applies for the turn spot, just more pronounced.
Feb. 10, 2020 | 9:29 a.m.
I think a key factor here is betting size. It seems like villain is betting a lot postflop, but the question is, does he have different bet sizes? For most fish, I would assume that a pot size river bet is exclusively value so this spot is a clear fold for me with any Tx combo.
I do think you can consider a X/R on the flop. I assume his cbetting range to be very high, including a couple of random Ax combos that you could fold out. If he calls though, I would shut down on most turns. On the T turn, obviously you get some showdown value so this is not a card that I would continue betting.
Feb. 7, 2020 | 7:24 a.m.
I agree with Jbarez that you need to call this down if you want to trap.
What were your reasons for trapping with AA though? To me it looks a bit like fancy play syndrome, and I'm not sure that's what you want to do on NL10.
Feb. 5, 2020 | 11:13 a.m.
I agree that all 3 hands are different. Especially hand 2 stands out as hand 1 and 3 seem to be fish, whereas in hand 2 there is no information that would indicate so. (When people donk flop on low level stakes, it's usually fish in my opinion. This is also why I think its fine to raise flop here, because fish do this with medium strength hands, and when they 3bet, you can safely fold.)
Hand 2 would be a check for me because there aren't many hands that would call your value bet.
Hand 3, I don't mind the turnbet unless he's a more actively betting fish. I guess on the river you can make a small bet.
Feb. 4, 2020 | 4:56 p.m.
Is there anything you know about villain? Otherwise I feel like you could just plug this hand into a solver.
My impression is that most regs overbluff the turn here after you check again on the turn, so I would see some random AJ, AK combos as well, although I agree with Jeff that these should probably bet the flop already.
On the river, it's a clear fold in my opinion. Maybe you see it otherwise, but most villains in the NL25 games I play are usually quite value heavy here.
Feb. 4, 2020 | 4:22 p.m.
Thanks, that gives me some food for thought. Indeed, leadbets are not a thing on NL25 yet and I have to admit that this is something I need to look into.
Just to note that I was in CO, no BU, and villain was in HJ (its 5-handed); and that BU was a 50/12 fish.
Feb. 3, 2020 | 2:57 p.m.
I think he's pointing to the fact that villain on the button has a 40 bb stack. I agree that you don't have to much equity when stacking off at 100bb, but at 40bb, I think you're fine with the NFD and 2 overcards.
I like betting in this spot here, although I assume the frequency at which you will win this pot here and now is pretty low. Imagine that it checks through, the 3rd spade arrives and BB villain leads - I would think that you will have a harder time extracting value than as if you would bet now and somewhat disguise your hand a bit (I'm not saying that villain would never guess you have a FD when you bet here, I just think that these villains will over-fold in the turn scenario that I described.)
Feb. 3, 2020 | 2:54 p.m.
CO: $40.97 (Hero)
UTG wins $8.13
Rake is $0.38
Feb. 3, 2020 | 6:59 a.m.
I agree, the question you're asking is way too generic to give a good answer. I don't think asking about unknowns is ideal because you should have at least some information (even when its the first hand, there are things you can infer from stack size, profile name and picture).
That being said, when somebody check-raises you in a SRP, cbets the turn and jams on the river, what do they do that usually on your stakes?
Jan. 31, 2020 | 1:33 p.m.
I don't really agree that the stack off is standard. I agree with the raise against this DB because most of the time you're up against weak TP and MP type hands. But when villain, who seems to be fishy, 3bet shoves I think you're rarely going to be good. Sure there will be a random spazz and maybe even an occasional flush draw, but mainly you will be up against 2pair and sets in this spot.
Jan. 30, 2020 | 3:48 p.m.
I agree that solvers are not very helpful in this spot. In my viewits a thin spot. Yes, you will find some spazz moves here, but I'm not sure if that is frequent enough to justify calling such a big bet. Correct me if I'm wrong, but if my quick math is correct he needs to spazz about 1/3 of the time which seems an awful lot..
Can you elaborate on your bet sizing on the flop? I would have went for something in the range of 3/4 to pot size thinking that villain will have a fairly inelastic calling range, so I'm looking to extract a maximum of value as soon as I can.
Jan. 29, 2020 | 9:57 a.m.
I agree. What helped me for these spots is to actually make a player pool analysis and filter for large donkbets on turn and river. You will see that it is literally always for value and barely ever as a bluff. I even have a note somethimes next to my screen reading "Don't pay them off!"
Jan. 28, 2020 | 2:26 p.m.
I don't thinks the stat you're posting is entirely dependent on your OR size, but I will have a look at mine once I'm home and share them with you because I'm intrigued. Just to be sure, I assume its the number of players postflop in hands that you are involved in?
I don't really like the OR size here. I would assume from their stack sizes that MP and BB are fish. Fish tend to have inelastic call range. They call your UTG raise with K4s and T6s regardless of whether you raise 2x or 2.5x or 3x - so why not go bigger, so you can play a bigger pot where you'll have range advantage?
Concerning the hands, I would go bigger on the flop again assuming that 2 of the villains are fish. Turn seems fine for me. On the river, if I'm right in assuming that villain is a fish, I would call a medium size donkbet and fold to anything more than 1/2 pot. But to assess that appropriately really you would need to share a bit more information.
Jan. 27, 2020 | 1:48 p.m.
I see your point. But, if I would be in shoes of CO or BU and I see an 2bb OR by a fish and a 6bb 3B, I would happily call with 77, 88, T9s, etc. I dont think that you create any fold equity for the fish in UTG, so I could safely assume to play a multiway pot. Now if you size it up to 8bb, things look a bit different because I think now you have some fold equity for UTG and the situation is a bit different.
Jan. 24, 2020 | 11 a.m.
I think preflop, I would either just flat or 3bet bigger. I assume from the stats that you identified UTG as a fish and 3bet to isolate him. I think that's a good idea, but I would go bigger, probably 8bb.
On the flop, I would bet mainly for protection. 5-handed there really is no good turn card, especially since there are apparently 3 fish with hard to guess ranges. If you can eliminate 2-3 villains, that's a very good outcome. If you are still multiway on the turn, I would proceed indeed with a lot of caution.
Jan. 23, 2020 | 11:02 a.m.
You seem to give villain a much stronger range than I would do. Whenever I see a 3x raise over a limp I tend to believe that they either lack the tactical skill do deal with a limp or simply overlooked the limp and therefore went for too small a sizing.
In this particular spot, I would happily 3bet. One thing to consider is the stack size of the limping fish. Here, at about 30 BB, its almost negligible. If the stack would be bigger, it might be a good idea to keep him on board.
As played, I'm happily calling the cbet on the flop. Later on, its all depending on the tendencies but I think this hand does well against a second barrel on a blank card by this type of player.
Jan. 22, 2020 | 2:15 p.m.
I think the question here is, what do you know about the villain? If you've played 500 hands and it is the first time he's 3betting, then yes you should probably fold AQo here. If that's not the case, I agree that you should call here especially with the good odds offered by villain.
I'm wondering if we could find a fold here on the turn. Essentially, its a pot-committing size, so you should ask if you would be willing to call here against a 2x overbet. If you have the impression that villain is a weak tight-passive player, you might want to fold.
As played, I call the river just to have peace of mind.
Jan. 21, 2020 | 3:19 p.m.
I wouldn't range bet here against 4 players of which at least one is certainly a fish. Personally, I would look to maximize my value for my strong holdings and keep bluffs for other spots, so balance isn't really my primary concern here.
With that in mind, I think you could have gone bigger. Personally I would have tended to about 1/2 pot on the flop. I think even KQ or KJ would call, at least by MP. On the turn, I personally think you just had bad luck that the card didn't improve anyone.
Jan. 20, 2020 | 2:25 p.m.
I agree. I think life is much easier if we just don't have 4bet-calling range from the SB.
Jan. 17, 2020 | 11:33 a.m.
I don't exactly agree with you here. Your line seems fine against a reg, but villain here is a fish at NL2. Unless OP has any specific ready on this player, I would assume that a fish who check-raises the turn is never not going to showdown.
For me, the mistake is on the turn: Don't try to bluff somebody who cannot be bluffed. I would assume that more often than not, he has at least a pair or better that he won't let go on the 8 of diamond.
Jan. 16, 2020 | 12:49 p.m.
probably not the right place to put this, but I wouldn't know where else to put it... I was trying to post a hand history, but the script would tell me 'Invalid Hand Format'. I was trying to post this handhistory that I took out of my HM3. Any help? Thank you!
PokerStars - €0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3 : http://www.holdemmanager.com
CO: €36.66 (146.6 bb)
BTN: €22.85 (91.4 bb)
Hero (SB): €32.36 (129.4 bb)
BB: €15.06 (60.2 bb)
UTG: €48.27 (193.1 bb)
MP: €27.30 (109.2 bb)
Hero posts SB €0.10, BB posts €0.25
Pre Flop: (pot: €0.35) Hero has Qh Qc
UTG raises to €0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls €0.75, Hero raises to €3.25, fold, UTG raises to €7.50, fold, Hero calls €4.25
Flop: (€16.00, 2 players) 9c Js 8c
Hero checks, UTG bets €5.04, Hero raises to €24.86 and is all-in, UTG calls €19.82
Turn: (€65.72, 2 players) Tc
River: (€65.72, 2 players) Jh
Players agreed to run it twice.
Turn #2: (€65.72, 2 players) 2d
River #2: (€65.72, 2 players) 7d
Results: €65.72 pot (€0.00 rake)
Final Board: 9c Js 8c Tc Jh 2d 7d
Hero shows Qh Qc: (Straight, Queen High)
Board #1 : (Pre 18%, Flop 28%, Turn 98%)
(One Pair, Queens)
Board #2 : (Pre 19%, Flop 25%, Turn 12%)
UTG shows As Ah: (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
Board #1 : (Pre 82%, Flop 72%, Turn 2%)
(One Pair, Aces)
Board #2 : (Pre 81%, Flop 75%, Turn 88%)
Hero wins €32.11
UTG wins €32.11