Hello, I honestly dont like your line
Here is why:
Flop is fine of course; on the turn I'm not sure we want to be betting big. Betting big seems like simple life for OOP, just fold a ton and call nut FDs and Tx blocker+. That's why I dont see it is a Max EV line.
River is just tough but considering range he shoving up with should be too much. Maybe he folds his 30combos of FDs, QQ-AA (hard to tell how many of those will have); and call everything else.
Dec. 4, 2020 | 3:02 p.m.
Alright, there are few things to consider
1)this is not range cbet in theory (in practise obv fine, since people under x/r and play more straightforward)
2)on the turn he shoudlnt have raising range in theory, so here is deviate. What he can raise as a bluff 5x (well I dont know he honestly shouldnt have naked 5x except A5hh) flush draws (candidated A2/42/64/74/76; raising other fds a bit overkill)
3) river just a blank, now he have less bluffs as A5 got there and some of his FDs got pairs. Do you really see people here just blasting busted FDs?
p.s. I belive can mostly use smaller turn bet(from 40% to 80%) on paired runouts
Dec. 4, 2020 | 2:53 p.m.
Paying off there could be a bad/good, this is rare enough spot that it shouldnt affect your winrate.
Mainly want to call because have Tx blocker and my folding range is easy to find(2pairs, sets). Hero can have AT-T9 (20 combos), so AT snap call and likely we need to be T9 as well. But I dont think it is a disaster to overfold just because CO shoudlnt have much a flatting range in this position and if he has heart to pull off bluff thats cool.
Dec. 4, 2020 | 2:33 p.m.
I cant get enough of my 2 elite memberships xD
p.s. I dont mind taking me out from montly leaderboars.
Dec. 4, 2020 | 2:23 p.m.
1st IP strategy vs shove 2nd IP vs check
IP need to defend every Kx and some Qx. If you assumptions correct than we can print money by shoving bluffs. ( In theory our hand 2bb better shove)
and 2nd - he actually doesnt have many bluffs (JT-98s mostly folding pre) thats why Im spectical about checking. Prefer shoving and get over with it, but I see your reasons and certainly could be higher EV
Dec. 3, 2020 | 1:27 p.m.
I think going big is the way to go. Yeah we will run into AA sometimes but thats fine.
My memory on this spot that I got called lightly whenever IP checked flop on Axx and called turn overbet. It didnt happen pretty often though and I might forgot spot where I won
About PP, they make not great turn bluff; except TT and 88 but TT I assumme too strong.
Dec. 3, 2020 | 10:53 a.m.
Do you have days when you only play and days when you just study(but being available to games, not in your hometown or in a place where games not available for some reason)?
Keep up with blogging, pretty sure a lot of people reading...
Dec. 2, 2020 | 2:45 p.m.
12 min - seems like shoving river is better in generally, of course your shove is profitable while check call I belive will rely on him finding bluffing % and shoving AK if he doesnt thats bad. Cause I really dont see people folding AK there vs jam
Dec. 2, 2020 | 12:17 p.m.
yes, AK+ QQ+ is only 2,5%. If you 3betting close to 7-8% which is GTO monker range you already can see that if you defend that range by shoving you will be folding 66% of your range.
And we can throw 2 other factors - small 4bet will destroy you and using blockers 4bets (Ax is magical vs that strategy, since it blocks a lot of IP continues)
You can do it however if your opponent is using very big 4bet sizings/
Dec. 2, 2020 | 11:03 a.m.
MP: $220.66 (Hero)
Dec. 2, 2020 | 10:57 a.m.
What is the most common reason why after flop check-raise, oop not really using 1/3 in HU (well maybe in some scenarios)?
2nd and 3rd hands
last hand (last minutes) we probably shoving our blockers to his Ax because it make a lot of sense to put a lot of money with blockers.
Dec. 1, 2020 | 12:06 p.m.
I would jam pre like 70% of the time. Well however my pool is more agressive with 4betting, think jamming pre is fine and should be in our arsenal. To not let him reaslize equity with his bluffs, not sure that dominating AQo/(ATs,A5s) comes to play. Don't really expect those to be stacking off on Ahigh board that often.
Not sure if I like his turn play, hard to tell. GTO ranges prefer shoving only, vs small turn bet we are folding close to 0% of our range which is lol obviously.
AP we still beat hands like KQ/A5/AQ so wasn't sure of the merit of
betting this on the river.
In theory we have worse bluffs and have bit too much showdown EV. In practise we might have less showdown EV and more bluff EV ( as people not defending vs river shove appropriately or protect their range)
Think I prefer jamming withour diamond as it might be his giving up range
Nov. 30, 2020 | 2:52 p.m.
Hello Ben, since we are talking about exploiting. Something comes to my mind, you of course familiar with monker bb defending range vs 2.5x BU open(RFI 40-42%). And it is fairly tight, I see some regs peeling T8o(mixed in monker) A2o-A3o (close to pure fold) 75o and so on.....
I certainly understand if you have postflop advantage you can defend, but OOP pretty hard to play(relize equity) even vs mediocre regs.
Q: How IP can exploit guy who likes to overdefend BB ? Or he dont need to do anything especiall, just now he gets more EV on every singe board.
Nov. 28, 2020 | 7:40 a.m.
check turn and decide river.
I belive at this node after flop cbet, we are pure checking overpairs without flush card.
Pretty hard overall, since his range is super narrow as well, at least suppose to be (AK, 77h+, JJo+, 87)
Nov. 27, 2020 | 3:06 p.m.
wait, if my math correct we need ~67% fold equity on the river since we are risking 17550 to win 26 150
However I think I got it. Since BigFiszh only mention boats.
I would fold 22 to be honest there, but it is close anyway, I certainly can see people underbluffing or overbluffing there so gotta make choice.
Nov. 27, 2020 | 3:01 p.m.
Hello, since you are strong with Theory, I'm curious why in this situation: SBvsBU 3bet and when face cold 4bet from BB. We are defending very similiar range to BUvsSB 4bet.
BB 4betting range is defiently stronger than BU.
I can get abroad with PP, since they hold their equity vs any range fairly well. But stuff like ATs KTs,QJs,JTs seems like way too dominated.
Nov. 27, 2020 | 10:48 a.m.
since his raise isnt big ~3x I expect we will have A5s AJs+. I'm thinking about AKo which might be call vs flop raise as well.
Even if you dont have worse, you can think in other way: if we check how often he will check and we will win +++ will he folds better if I bet?
I'll throw something to think about - we are not always bluffing worst hands and even 0 EV hands which never win, and we are not always defending MDF river.
Nov. 27, 2020 | 10:40 a.m.
Looks wp by villian, decent flop R vs blockbet and nice river calldown.
You played it fine till river, river I dont like bluff: you should have worse combos to do so, your check down EV is not 0, and if it goes check - check which for sure will happen, sometimes gonna win.
If you have aggro mood can x/shove(vs not big size). I belive he will mostly bet his strong hands on the turn, so we are trying to fold everything below Tx by shoving. Thats the reason why I only would shove vs smaller size
Nov. 26, 2020 | 11:30 a.m.
Seems good. I assume most players do so
Pros: easier to execute; yield almost same EV
Cons: not extremely hard to play against; some boards(runouts) you will lose EV as wont play max EV strategy (as example XXXmonnote and 4 flush card on the turn, there are others as well where small turn cbet is preffered)
Nov. 26, 2020 | 11:23 a.m.
Dont have much info vs him(less than 50 hands), he actually folded quite many times vs me (2 small pots, and 1 medium). Probably not most agressive player, but possible varience - card dead.
Flop turn pretty sure I gotta raise to put pressure on his weak donking range(presumable for this size) and we have 2 overcards and 4 to a straight. Ohh I found out that my turn raise touch small
River Im not sure whether I should jam. Well my quick math said that i need 60%-65% fold equity vs jam.
Can be convinced that it is easy jam and he is blockbetting 8x there, which I suppose he will likely fold vs jam
Nov. 26, 2020 | 10:56 a.m.
I probably will still fold PRE(micro, rake, bla bla bla), T8s is on the cusp and in theory should be folded super often.
But certainly if have postflop advantage vs rec it will be + EV call.
River I dunno, easy spot to overbluff if he is bluffing AK there at pure %. So I would call, expect to be winning there and sometimes see some A5,AQ...
is he checking the turn with QQ-AA,QJ,KJ,AJ often enough?
I see recs do that pretty often, they either go for 3 streets with QQ(AA mostly triple to be honest) or try to bluffcatch turn. And change plan on the river because why not
Nov. 25, 2020 | 3:24 p.m.
26 minute that AA checkback, I understand reasons you mentioned about checking river. What is the worst valuehand you will bet there? we still can have bluffs at this node, primarely non Ace flush draws, but pretty hard to have big bluff freq considering even 54/T8/78 got there