Kalupso's avatar


3018 points

These boards play quite unintuitively if you have a value and bluffing view of poker. You kind of just play the equity of the hand and try to make it as hard as possible for the other guy to play his hands in an efficient way. The benefit of folding out equity is at least as big as removing a chuck of the showdown value by betting. Every card between A and 7 changes the strength of K9, so you are left with 20 cards that don't. The probability of none of those coming by the river is 1-(27/47)*(26/46)=33%, so 2/3rd of the time you are going to improve or devalue your hand. The numbers aren't perfect because a JJ runout will lead to showdown properties being more important and the backdoor flush can come in. The implication of so few blank runouts is that the drawing properties are more important than the showdown properties of the hand. 9 can be seen as a trips draw rather than a 3rd pair, K kicker is a GS and 2pair draw (also backdoor full house draw), and the BDFD is a backdoor flush draw. The showdown properties still matter but typically comes in second after draw properties.

In general, the hands with many ways to improve bet more often and the more nutted they improve is also better. The checking range tends to take the "Moneyball approach". I mean in terms of having hands that only do one thing well as they did with baseball players that were good at one part of the game in Moneyball. For example, 2pair draws to much fewer full houses than a set so is better used as a check to have some more good showdown hands in the check line. A Q-high without a BDFD will give enough coverage on a K turn, so we can just bet the better ones with a backdoor. AA doesn't have a draw and doesn't block good hands so more likely to check to have some good 1 pair hands than KK and QQ.

Feb. 14, 2021 | 3:31 p.m.

Obviously the flop call is losing quite a bit.

I ran the sim myself with a smaller XR like in the hand history and his exact combo was right around 0EV and calling more often than folding. JsTh was folding or mostly folding, so for sure a cusp hand with Jh.

Feb. 13, 2021 | 10:53 a.m.

Lot's of cool ideas in these hands!

The suits seems very important in the second hand. I looked at the equities for AKo against a few different hands and a range of them. Against a range of 1 combo of Ah6h, 1 combo of Th9h, 3 combos of 77, and 20% of AQ with a heart (Qh or Ah) I get these numbers:

  • We are actually behind Ah6h with 48% equity when we don't hold a heart, but is doing 51% with the heart. So a little over 3% equity added from the blocking effect.
  • Against AQ there is a double effect where we both take the backdoor outs away and get the value from having them, so the difference is as big as 4,5% for AK with a single heart against AsQh. Blocking one backdoor FD out against AhQ is worth around 1% equity.
  • Against 77 the backdoor adds in the usual 4% equity bringing it up from 24,5% to 28,5%.
  • The Ah I think just skews the SB range more towards the low pairs that BB are doing much worse against. Maybe there is some turn and river play-ability effect that improves the EV of call too.

How it's doing vs a lower FD is a big difference here. Should be a combination of blockers and redrawing. Equities against Th9h:

Feb. 13, 2021 | 10:48 a.m.

Comment | Kalupso commented on Spew?

Yeah, agree with zinom1 that it's not good to check sets here. They don't block anything and need to go for stacks. We check sets on some other boards but here we can so easily check back some AQ or whatever and protect the checking range. AQ is behind AK, 2pair and his sets which can be as much as 15% of his range so it's not like we can just go for stacks with AQ. The benefit of protection on this board is also zilch for top pair making it even less appealing to bet the,.

Feb. 12, 2021 | 4:10 p.m.

Comment | Kalupso commented on Bluff the river?

Yeah, all in is an important like here as you have a lot of AK+ and even AK has like 95% equity. Might have to overbet turn to shove AK OTR.

Population ranges from database and what I see in practice calls 98s and 87s. Doesn't matter if monker doesn't like it if people call it in practice. I think even monker calls some of them.

Feb. 12, 2021 | 12:33 p.m.

Comment | Kalupso commented on Bluff the river?

Turn is clear overbet spot with AQ+. Can't really bet many more hands for 75% than 133% pot or something anyway.

4 combos is not a small amount when ranges are as tight as here. I wouldn't mind using this as an overbet bluff but I don't like it as a 75% pot bluff. He should mostly or always fold QJ without a FD on the turn and is for the most part capped two a few AT, A5 combos and the odd slowplayed 55.

Feb. 12, 2021 | 12:25 p.m.

Comment | Kalupso commented on Spew?

I am not 100% sure about ranges here, but it seems to me you beat too much to bluff and there are many more hands in your range that should bluff before this (more SDV requires higher fold frequency). Turn is not a spot you should really check back nutted hands as it's natural to check back some Ax and don't need to strengthen range more than that vs guys attacking checking ranges. I still think overbet can be fine as an exploit on the river but make sure to not keep doing it too often against same guy purely to get folds as it can get quite obvious to the observant player.

The guys who uses these small sub optimal 3bet sizes OOP tends to not fold a lot in 3bet pots either. I think it's just a sign on fishy tendencies and they tend to underfold in 3bet pots. Maybe you've found one of those spots you can bluff them off a lot of hands?

Feb. 12, 2021 | 12:13 p.m.

Flop size doesn't matter too much here. Different sizes reduce EV of different parts of BB range and he has plenty of great hands himself.

Your hand has enough good properties to be bet some of the time. You want to have some 9x in your betting range and having the K and BDFD gives you some high EV turns and rivers. It's not clearly better to bet or check against the average guy though.

Turn isn't good to bet with the combo because you have better hands like AQ, AK, and even bare Kx is better to bet. You block folding range strongly (9 no diamond frequently folds and same for K no diamond) there are plenty of good potential bluffs. K9 with flush draw is so high equity that the flop reasons also apply on the turn and it's a fine hand to bet, and 9d and Kd will frequently continue vs the turn bet.

Feb. 12, 2021 | 11:58 a.m.

How people react is more important than the GTO EV differences. When playing 6max and you are on the BTN and there are two loose fish behind that is like proper limp type fish, you can just size your hand. They will be quite inelastic vs sizes and won't 3bet much. With two strong regs that constantly scan for tells and weaknesses, you need to hide as much information as possible so sizing based on hands is just asking for trouble. Most situations will fall in the middle. This idea applies to any spot be it preflop or postflop. On the river you can get away with more of this because it's much more difficult to get information about what you are doing, but don't be too obvious against observant players.

The GTO EV difference assumes perfect response and it will be super close compared to what is actually going on in a real poker game.

Feb. 12, 2021 | 10:15 a.m.

Feb. 12, 2021 | 10:10 a.m.

This is just part of the game. Just step down in stakes and keep improving. As long as you are learning something relevant or get in some practice you are heading the right direction. Taking time off doesn't solve anything per se, but if poker results affects other more important things in your life negatively then it could be a good idea. You'd want your hobby to make your life better overall. Have you seen Chris Pimmer's video on Running bad? Could be a good place to look for ideas for and a vision of a great mindset.

You can play against GTO sensei for postflop or preflop guru for preflop if you lack confidence to play real money poker. You can use a solver too but then you have to solve it yourself. It can be difficult to understand the why and what is going on, but most people tend to get a better grasp at ranges when they get in many repetitions of playing a certain spot.

Feb. 12, 2021 | 12:30 a.m.

What could IP player do if you always lead all your 2pair+ hands? Do you see that counter strategy in your games?

How often would IP call if you bet 75% pot? How often would IP bet if you check? Which is higher?

If you face a bet, can you get more EV by raising than calling?

Feb. 10, 2021 | 11:05 p.m.

Yes, 100NL players tend to be too picky about hand selection and not understand that he won't get there without a FD and have to use them as a bluff. 100NL players tends to be very risk averse and not like to bluff off a stack unless it's a great spot to bluff (overfolded spot). 25NL players are much more just clicking buttons but there is a huge difference between players there. A guy like Sauce or something would understand what he is value betting and know what parts of his range should bluff and be closer to balanced.

Feb. 10, 2021 | 5:10 p.m.

It's probably a fold readless but you don't have to be readless.

Feb. 10, 2021 | 3:15 p.m.

Jbarez You have 20% against straight and need to win the pot 32% with no further betting. I think you will see at least 12% random shit weaker than QQ that will check the river. I don't think you see more than 88% river barrel after turn XR.

Feb. 10, 2021 | 3:14 p.m.

No, it's not a mistake or a big one. It's really close already on the turn already but SB can't bet many random Ax hands before the call is really good. I am not a big fan of overfolding there because there are so many automatic bluffs for SB. I mean hands that realize their equity better as a bet than XC, XR or XF.

Feb. 10, 2021 | 3:06 p.m.

I would call, expecting to lose a lot, but I think you can see sometimes Ax or random KQ/QJ play.

Yeah, those are the hands he needs to have but it needs to be like 3-4 combos given his value range is like 12 combos. That is still just the breakeven point. Then you have to give some players literally 0 bluffs and we need an overbluff on average from the rest to make up for it which I don't think is easy for anyone but a spewy fish (a spewy fish might still be close to balanced here).

Feb. 10, 2021 | 1:20 p.m.

Hand is far down in your range like you said, so can just fold and not think much further. You are already in a bad or marginal spot on the turn. I would always fold river with a pure bluff catcher because villain hit something decent so often and I think a lot of people will slow down with their weakest bluffs OTT (because T paired) and then give up with nut FD on the river leaving them with almost no bluffs. To overbluff the river he either needs to bluff some weaker bluffs and follow through or bet his missed flush draws at a high frequency on the river (here stakes and player reads are important as 100NL regs are less likely to bluff missed FD than both 25NL reg and 1k NL reg). The pot sized river bet also signal strength. Stakes are relevant when thinking about the sizes but regardless I think it's more on the value heavy side here given you turned so many trips and full houses.

Feb. 10, 2021 | 12:31 p.m.

Bad bluff spot against two players because it's too likely one of them have 2pair and will call. I don't like the turn bluff either because you are putting in way too much money against too many players with too weak of a hand on the turn. If you bet smaller and one player called, you have a decent river bluff because it's easy to call with QT, 98, T9 type hands on the turn and fold river (which typically makes the turn bluff atrocious).

Feb. 10, 2021 | 12:15 p.m.

Stakes and reads are essential in these kinds of hands to get a reasonable reply that is relevant. I see the SB is 0,5bb so 10NL or 50NL?

Both of these hands are snap calls against anyone competent or reasonably aggressive. The only hand I would ever fold in practice is this last AK hand, and I would base my decision there on reads. I think you can find a fold because of the lack of natural turn bluff that isn't a FD. If he is making a XR with overcards and barrels off after BN gets his best turn card, you should be able to figure out that he is among the top few percent most aggressive players in the pool. QJ hand blocks turned QQ and AQ plus he can be doing this with AK and AT without overplaying his hand.

Feb. 10, 2021 | 12:08 p.m.

There is no good way to realize your equity unless you go all in. I don't think you can view a spot like this conceptually like value or bluff. You just need to play your equity and try to take as much of the pot as possible, and I think the way to do that when IP isn't too overpair heavy is to shove. You can get it in ahead of flush draws, get some folds, and still draw to around 9 outs when behind.

Feb. 10, 2021 | 11:23 a.m.

I used the sim from your hand and 110% pot bet OTF and solver liked to bet entire range for 16% pot. We see these kinds of sizes when we are OOP with a range that captures more than 50% of the pot but doesn't polarize well (merged range with similar amounts or less nutted hands). Here we have less nutted hands but many more good but not great hands. It's a quite specific distribution where the aggressor gets the linear range and the caller the polar one.

Feb. 8, 2021 | 12:22 p.m.

Got into the same spot in a session I just played with AQo. Positions were the same. Flop was Qs9h3s and a tad deeper. Bet flop 100% pot and got As turn. SPR of 0,95.

What to do OTT?

As turn blocks most flushes for both players so we are left with KT, KJ and JT for both players. Could be some 76s and 65s but shouldn't be much of either range. Basically beaten by 7 combos with some of them being discounted.

Feb. 7, 2021 | 3:04 p.m.

You could simplify it a lot.

Let's say the river is 33322

IP range is AA, KK, A5, K5 and Q5

OOP range is KK, QQ (all six combos for each).

Let's say you bet 100% pot as IP with AA for value and some bluffs (you can put KK into the betting range as well to make OOP not call 50/50 of QQ and KK), and OOP calls KK and folds QQ. In this spot you would bluff K5 but check Q5 because K5 reduces the number of calling hands by 50% and Q5 reduces number of folding hands by 50%. A5 doesn't block either and is getting a fold 50% so it's the same EV to check and bluffs.

What is the overall folding frequency when you hold K5? And the same with Q5?

Feb. 7, 2021 | 1:43 p.m.

Otr I dont think there is any reason to overbet because I dont think he will fold Ax and strong Qx and I should just target his 9x (witch I block), 2x and some pp. What do you think?

If you think he's that wide, you need to check turn. He needs to start folding some of his 9x, KK, TT type hands OTT to make a bluff want to bet. On the river he should just call his Qx with better blockers, all AX and raise some 2pair+ hands and bluffs.

Given it's an A high board, he'll make many new 2pairs on turns and rivers. The 9 also gives him a decent amount of sets and 2 pairs with 99 and Q9. I therefore can agree that going huge might make it easier to just continue "comfortable" hands.

Feb. 7, 2021 | 1:15 p.m.

Comment | Kalupso commented on AA sqz pot oop.

I'd agree more with KK or QQ, but you don't want to get so many folds with AA as it crushes most of the lighter calls.

Feb. 7, 2021 | 1:12 p.m.

Comment | Kalupso commented on AA sqz pot oop.

You strongly block the bluffs and are up against two ranges that's already narrowed quite a bit.

Feb. 7, 2021 | 12:57 p.m.

I think it's correct to bet river once you bet the turn since you cannot expect him to fold lightly OTT.

Solver actually plays overbet or check in these spots OTT as BB because a smaller bet doesn't deny much equity and makes it easy for IP to just call his pairs and draws.

There is also the blocker part on the river... The hand doesn't block too many of the call turn and fold river hands. The better draws tends to do worse as river bluffs here so if you take a worse hand like T8 that is often dominated then it should be because IP is giving you a +EV turn or river bluff.

Feb. 7, 2021 | 12:38 p.m.

Yes, very much. I was delighted to hear commentary about ranges and subtleties rather than "standard bet".

Feb. 7, 2021 | 10:53 a.m.

Great video and your YouTube content is really good as well!

Feb. 5, 2021 | 6:37 p.m.

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