I think 3,5x is only viable on the button in 6max online games. Can go like 3x Co and then 2,5x from first two. Anything is viable in SB depending on player in BB. If games are really soft and plyers have like 6% or less overall 3bet, you could probably 3x UTG. It's not a great size fundamentally UTG tho.
Jan. 25, 2022 | 9:45 a.m.
Sounds about right. If they truly are way too loose, you can go quite tight. Any mix is a fold for sure. You don't gain much EV from tightening up alone but sizing up should give some win rate. Don't think you need to go much tighter than 35% if they have low 3bet and they play poorly postflop. I think solvers open like 38% for 3,5x on the button so it's not like the size itself makes you tighten up that much. Think it's like 43% with 2,5x.
Jan. 24, 2022 | 5:29 p.m.
Set value is not enough usually unless price is really good. If they 3bet pot or smaller OOP at 100bb, you can call the stuff that's not dominated. Need to go all the way down to like 60% pot or something when they're IP.
Against fish is more like you talk about because implied odds are much much better.
Jan. 24, 2022 | 8:57 a.m.
Mix fold always mean 0EV in solver regardless of the spot. Only call because there is an exploit if not calling them. Then they're +EV if the exploits happens.
Jan. 23, 2022 | 11:20 a.m.
You can just fold like crazy. Definitely don't call extra loose vs nitty regs when OOP. I think 200nl is the first stake you are "forced" to find these calls at decent frequency. OOP it's more important to find the thin 4bets than the thin calls. Yes, even at lower stakes you should find the thin 4bets in most spots against regs. Obviously if they have 5% 3bet you just fold and 4bet good stuff. No need to donate money to just strong stuff.
Jan. 23, 2022 | 11:17 a.m.
You have to add the "punts" to the numbers I posted above. Those really bad plays where you bluff raise a station all in when you don't have fold equity etc. Normal bluffs of course fine.
Jan. 21, 2022 | 5:18 a.m.
I checked a preflop solver which is almost worst case and it was shoving QQ+, AKo, AQs+ and then flatting JJ and a bunch of lower frequency stuff.
I don't think following solver is 100% accurate here but it indicated low pairs was more of a fold and you mostly shove a lot. I think the reason it flats so little is that button can shove so much if you are wide. Just like you can shove a lot if people flat wide.
cardrunnersEV is brilliant for these spots if you want to find answers for different scenarios. Can look at EV of calling different hands in Preflop solver and how often BTN shove to determine how much you want to flat.
Jan. 21, 2022 | 5:10 a.m.
3 buy-in swings are what happens all the time and almost every session. 10 buy-in swings in a single session are rare but should happen as the sum of several sessions in most 10k hand samples.
I am talking about both up- or downswings deviating from the expected long-term win rate.
Jan. 20, 2022 | 1:43 p.m.
You can try to estimate this with Excel sheets or even better cardrunnersEV. EV Preflop is just sum of all subsequent lines EV. Bottom range hands always folds to 3bet so preflop EV is easy. Now you need to estimate EV when called.
Kinda a big topic to explain how, but it's doable. I did some of this in cardrunnersEV EV like 3-4+ years ago and it gave pretty good linear 3bet ranges and exploit adjustments for opens.
In practice, it's not just what is correct but what you can get away with. Might not be able to open 65% on the BTN with decent reg in SB and massive whale in BB because reg will flat and 3bet a lot.
Jan. 19, 2022 | 9 a.m.
Lol. Guess the highstakes dream of OP didn't work out either.
GTO Warrior You seem to approach spots logically and understand the most important concepts. Do you think it's more the non-strategic stuff that separate you from 100nl and 200nl regs?
Jan. 11, 2022 | 6:51 p.m.
You get a great redline if you find the proper aggression in all kinds of weird lines. Most people find most 3bets (unless micros), but most people miss some 4bets and 5bets. When is the last time you bluff raised a delayed cbet? Most people XR way too little on all streets. Flop raises IP even 1k NL regs on average only raise 2/3rd of solver frequency, and I think a lot of those raises comes from a few spots being overdone because people over cbet while missing raises in most other spots. Solver has a large raise frequency IP against river probe, do you ever see any regs in your games do so with a proper strategy? Finding good aggression in all those lines without overdoing it to such a degree it's easy to adjust will give you an awesome redline and win rate.
On top of lacking aggression in all kinds of lines, most players overfold in all kinds of lines. Sometimes justified (against raises, certain boards) but very often people just come up with a BS reason to overfold or don't play a good strategy.
Jan. 2, 2022 | 10:23 p.m.
What are you specifically going to do to improve? Everyone can have big goals, but it doesn't help if you don't do right action regularly. What skills and knowledge separate you from a high stakes player? What will you do to minimize the gap?
Dec. 31, 2021 | 3:23 p.m.
but the correct play here is to actually just flat the 3bet preflop in these positions and only 4bet AKs+ and i will explain why and you can see the evidence for yourself in Snowie since you have it
Correct play here is to never flat. Shove some hands like AKo, QQ and 4bet small with the rest of hands you want to play. ATs+, KJs+, TT+. Can mix in some AQo. Maybe not so much AQo when you 4bet all those suites hands. A5s and KTs are also decent 4bet hands but you don't want to be too wide in these spots.
Dec. 24, 2021 | 9:38 a.m.
It's not just about the 2.5x or 3x but also how much of stack you put in. With such large sizes I go all in with AKo against players who 3bet enough. 5nl zoom might be so passive when it comes to 3bet that it's a bad play. I haven't done the math, sims, population study for those games. Non all in size to around 25bb is fine when IP 3bet to 10bb.
For fast fold games you want to use a small opening size and not go 3x. People play too tight and smaller opening sizes exaggerate that leak.
Flop is more of half pot or check spot. You don't have extra equity with these hands that wants to shove. Maybe QQ and some AKo with the K FD blocker can shove but main strategy on these types of flops are half pot check from what I remember/understand. Definitely don't shove without the FD blocker because you're behind any FD without it. IP can have TP+FD here which probably make the shove worse than otherwise. Think about the equity when called.
Dec. 24, 2021 | 9:33 a.m.
Odin poker or GTO Wizard are probably better options for someone like you. Pre solved nice trees for all stacks and you get preflop ranges too. They're browser based cloud sims and you can play against the solutions for practice.