It's pretty rigorously covered in this series but at 50bb:
June 10, 2019 | 9:16 a.m.
It's a big question that's not that "fun" to solve/reply to. So someone that knows the answer needs to do something that's not particularly rewarding in itself while sharing potentially valuable information. The liklihood of getting good posts to those questions are much lower than good HHs that are very interesting in themselves to try to solve.
There are video content about stuff like that on the site for both tiers.
June 9, 2019 | 1:26 p.m.
It's just the software/algorithm. Solvers aren't 100% perfect and just models the game tree you built. Don't get bogged down in rounding errors.
In practice I wouldn't simplify my strategy to the extent that we see significant EV loss unless I think it's either the best strategy against that player in practice or it is the best strategy I am able to execute.
I think most people forget that we simplify things in poker in every single decision we make. Full GTO would be using almost every single bet and raise size allowed by the client within the range of sizes that makes sense. 31% pot bet is just slightly different weighted than 31.5% etc. So it's absolutely necessary to trim the game tree and simplify things down to just the lines that makes the most sense. I think we approach things in a fundamentally poor way when we talk about deliberately preparing lines that has more than 1% of pot EV loss against a good response and it's easy to figure out what you're doing. Exception to that being when you play against someone playing in the opposite side of the correct counter (i.e. you exploit them).
June 9, 2019 | 12:02 p.m.
Turn don't think I can fold nut-fd here from theory point
Made a quick solver sim and when using a mixed cbet strategy and sizes used the A-high FDs do mostly fold except for with a wheel draw. AKs and AQs always folds because of blocking weaker FDs I guess. ATs was calling quite a bit because Pio for some reasoned liked to XR JT a lot but that might not fit this villain. A8s and A7s were both mostly calls but mixing.
These sims with SB is of course sensitive to assumptions but I think I can conclude that even from theory perspective A high FDs can fold. As UTG you have lots of other decent hands to call with.
June 6, 2019 | 6:33 a.m.
Hi, SetMineYourAss. I think a ban is a ban. Take your negativity elsewhere.
June 6, 2019 | 5:52 a.m.
It's not a very common or intuitive spot so just trying my best to reason through it. I am leaning towards fold because I assume villain doesn't barrel off enough random K-high and Q-high FDs and doesn't have 64s or 76s very often. If guys like this barrel K-high FDs every time then I lean more towards a call. You do have one of the better FDs to call regardless because you only block other A high FDs and 76s while ATs blocks way more dominated FDs, so if I were to pick a couple to call I'd go with the lower ones starting at A8s and avoid A9s or higher.
June 5, 2019 | 12:11 p.m.
Range cbet for 40% ish pot is probably both the best and easiest strategy to execute.
Difficult spot to sim accurately because narrow ranges often means output is sensitive to assumptions but I ran with two different ranges (one on tight side and one on wide side) and both yielded same conclusions. Against my best approximation of "GTO" after a UTG 3bb open you are losing between 20bb to 40bb more than folding by calling flop and turn. You can hardly make a bigger "GTO mistake" than calling turn. I can't justify this play based on any read pretty much when GTO EV is so bad. Flop is also a really clear fold.
May 29, 2019 | 7:21 p.m.
I have simed some similar lines in the past and AK regardless of suits have been terrible bluff catcher (I mean losing like 10bb in EV or something silly high). I don't think this is an exception and flop should be a clear fold I think. This isn't a common spot so my past experience from similar but quite different spots might be way off. Exploitatively people tend to raise too often for value and there are no natural bluffs. You might even be behind a pair that merge bluff.
May 29, 2019 | 4:45 p.m.
We got a little closer at least but it's very complex stuff. I don't think we can just point to one thing either for why this play is good, and because it's mixed it's part of an equilibrium.
I always get fascinated when stuff like this happens to appear in LLinusLLove type hands I see here and there. I mean the best in the world are good enough to even think about stuff like that while playing. Guys like Linus has opened my eyes up to how good of a GTO based player it's possible to become.
I think Sauce calls these types of plays demi-bluffs. Demi mean half like semi but just another language so it's just a way to differentiate if the value part comes from drawing or made hand part. Hemi is Greek, demi is French and semi is latin for half.
May 29, 2019 | 8:51 a.m.
Ran my own sim to high accuracy with multiple raise and bet sizes using SPF and found AxQh to be bet like this 7% of the time. When changing to range cbet OTF without getting exploited for it and checking turn 75% of the time it was used more like 16% of the time.
Seems like it's a thing and not just an artifact from weaknesses in the model but very low frequency and probably not the most important part of the equilibrium. I think it has to do with the great blocker (villains folds most two pairs without Qh and calls all with), villain not raising much (not getting into bluff-catcher spot), getting some folds from better and getting called a bit by worse. So maybe a part of equilibrium to counteract villain bluff-catching with blocker hands over absolute hand strength hands.
May 29, 2019 | 7:26 a.m.
That's an odd spot. I'll try to reproduce it myself but from what I can see in the picture AQ gets folds from some AK and AQ while TT calls. Seems like it's both a bluff and a value bet. This is kind of strange play when the bet isn't all in.
Bets like that typically stops villain from betting a polarized range while checking back slightly worse made bands. Facing a polarized bet means hand is close to 0EV.
In your som villain is only raising around 3% so I think getting some value, some folds and avoiding a polarized which the hand is a bluff-catcher against is what's going on.
May 29, 2019 | 5:24 a.m.
Some Pio focused video on turn play after flop XR from BB would be interesting. It's a quite important spot with the small cbet at high frequency meta we see in a lot of games. As far as I know it has not been covered much here.
May 28, 2019 | 2:34 p.m.
What you describe of playing shorter sessions is generally a form of controlling behaviour. I say generally because I don't know 100% what's the case for you. Procrastination is another form of controlling behaviour where you control yourself and your actions. Then I noticed the word control two places in what you wrote.
You are correct that I haven't solved the underlying problem. I am not sure what the underlying problem is, yet. Maybe some sort of accumulated emotion?
Yes, could be emotions but could also be more thoughts and beliefs. For example not understanding variance or having misconceptions about it is an example of poor beliefs that can cause problems. You also have the type of beliefs like "I don't deserve" or something like that which could cause problems too.
It's difficult to fix these things on your own or through forum replies. I had a few sessions with a great mental coach last year and it was very useful. His prices has gone up considerably now so it takes a bit to be worth the investment. I don't know of any great and affordable mental game coaches. It's also difficult to judge for me the severity of this leak by your post. I found that the same issues I had during my teens in school showed up in poker. Fixing them one place fixes it in the other so getting help from people outside poker could make sense.
May 25, 2019 | 11:16 p.m.
Deep breathing during sessions. Seems to help somewhat, but is of limited use.
Drinking lots of water. Also seems to help somewhat.
Writing down some things in my journal.
Taking a break from the session and taking long walks between sessions.
Those are all more coping things than resolving the "problem" except for journaling. Another one I could add in as a suggestion is to play some standing or stretch a little during sessions. I find that my breathing gets deeper and I get less tiered when I move a little during sessions.
I have been keeping this issue somewhat under control, usually by pushing myself to play shorter sessions when running good, but playing more sessions.
I have been trying to control these issues by
The word control stood out to me in what you wrote above. Maybe this behaviour has to do with control? What could it be that you want to control and why?
May 25, 2019 | 10:24 p.m.
Monotone flop OOP to two players is just range check for me regardless of preflop action pretty much. This might be an exception with such a small SPR. AQ here is a hand that wants a safe turn card before putting in money and acting last gives information advantage.
May 25, 2019 | 12:27 p.m.
Pretty sure you have a check down hand if we give BB a more standard reg squeeze range against MP. Your hand should be extremely close to 0 EV against flop bet already when not closing action and almost not good run out (lacking backdoor equity). I think a small turn bet is a thing against straightforward players. I can't see many good reasons to be betting river. A lot of recs tend to over adjust to some flush river in some of these spots and miss thin value and there isn't much he can call except AK you beat.
Flop fold is probably too tight but I could see it being the best play with tighter stats for the two other players.
May 25, 2019 | 12:20 p.m.
IP you want to 4bet polarised. Value range on the button is all QQ+ and AKs, most AKo and JJ. TT and 99 at lower frequencies. A5s has a bit too much postflop playability to be used as 4bet bluff IP on the button. A heuristic to use when selecting 4bet bluffs IP is to pick some frequency of the weakest hands that could potentially call. The weakest suited Ax hands that could call here is A2s, A3s, A6s and A7s so I'd pick among them before A5s. K8s and K9s are also good suited 4bet bluffs on the button. You can maybe 4bet all of those suited hands 30% of the time and mix in some ATo, KJo, QJo, KQo and AJo too.
May 25, 2019 | 9:43 a.m.
Way too expensive and usefulness of fixed solutions are limited. Buy monker or simple preflop holdem and run sims with an accuracy your hardware allows for. You don't really need more than 8gb RAM to solve most practical preflop problems with them, but if you want to build full 6max type sims with all positions then you really wanna have 32gb or more RAM. Solving time isn't really an issue with them and quality is generally higher than for Pio Edge preflop sims.