Flop doesn't really matter and everything from check to a bet size from 20% pot to 100% pot can work with AJ, but maybe you need more like AQ+ to bet 80%+.
Turn check is fine and I don't think I'd even fold to 70% pot OTT with AT or AJ because it beats a little too many hands that can bet turn and check down river. The GS equity also makes it less bad to call against villains set or 2pair hands. You can also bet 1/3 pot OTT and then 1/4 pot OTR against a passive player (you can vs other too but then you need to do it in a more balanced way and not have close to 100% fold vs river raises).
Dec. 12, 2018 | 4:22 p.m.
I like flop and turn although it might not be be the best texture to bluff (at lest with bigger size). I have a difficult time seeing river bluff being great but I might go for it if I have a hand with top blockers. Villain would have to be the weaker type of player that seems to be seeing monsters everywhere and would fold most Ax hands to bluff 33.
Dec. 11, 2018 | 10:37 a.m.
I think you have one of those spots that no rational player would ever bluff though. Fish and someone I assume is perceived as a solid/thightish reg calls 2/3 pot MW twice. I think folding 44 to a medium size is a little tight given UTG can have KTs, QTs and KQs flushes close to 100% of the time and some K9 and Q9 flushes, but that is not very much compared to all the better boats so might be reasonable to fold after all.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 8:32 p.m.
I only use standard logic/math and awareness of ranges. Don't know what you deem a standard iso of fish but lets say it's 20% and QQ+ is 18 combos. So 18/1200 combos is around 1,5% of all hands on that flop and around 7,5% of a 20% range. It's not unreasonable to check entire range OOP to two players on mono flop and facing half pot not closing the action it's reasonable to fold around 60% or more. 7,5%/0,4 is around 19% of range that calls the cbet.
I would say 19% of range being QQ+ is having QQ+ quite frequently and I don't think I made any assumptions that's out of line.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 7:42 p.m.
Interesting with that rake thing.
I jumped between different limp HH threads and thought this was a spot you were OOP for a bit. Exactly AA can work as a big bet OTF because of specific blockers (or lack there of) in this exact spot but I don't think it's much better and range overall wants to use smaller bets.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 3:13 p.m.
It's difficult to get strong data on spots like this but snap decisions in these spots are a strong indication of tilt or emotional plays.
You have to piece together all the information to try to make sense of things and against better regs it's often just better to play a sound strategy and adjust with mixed hands.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 2:35 p.m.
I can't agree with that, the limp indicates that with a 90% confidence interval this guy is a fish. As a general rule, I think betting large with strong hand is the right way to go versus this kind of oponent :)
I pretty strongly disagree with your theory of having to bet big vs fish for this texture. I'm also curious if you know what confidence interval is because it is used a bit oddly here.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 2:32 p.m.
I actually misread the hand and thought villain called. Flop is one villain should never raise and if he raise you should 3bet really often. TT is of course not a hand that works well as a flop 3bet but it's also too good to fold against that small of a raise so only option left OTF is to call. I think the main play is to 3bet flop and not call though but hands like JJ, KJ, QJ, JT, TT and 99 are probably plays better as a call.
OTR you have an easy XF with TT. It's probably ahead of enough to not be turned into a bluff and you have a lot of Jx that can XC.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 2:13 p.m.
It's a close spot with hands like TT, 99 and AK. They're not great bluff catchers but I think folding all of them is a bad idea too. I don't have a strong opinion read less and you can mix call and fold. A hand like JJ can be used as XR blocking hands that call a bet but won't bet themselves all the time.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 1:13 p.m.
Villain is likely to be passive recreational player and against those it's usually better to just bet your self with the hands that have enough equity to do so. Passive recreational players will often just check down their missed draws in these spots so checking to bluff catch is much worse than against a more aggressive player.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 1:06 p.m.
1st is played fine all the way to the river and an easy fold OTR. It's just too likely one of the other two players have 2pair+ and unlikely to be bluffing much.
2nd Can fold preflop unless you think both players are a little wide (think 20%+ UTG open and 10%+ flat). AJo doesn't play well vs tight ranges but it is OK if you think they're wide and will often fold preflop.
I'd fold turn with one more player left to act but if you closed the action and the other players before you folded I could see calling being better than folding. It's a marginal hand that won't do well on many rivers.
P.S. It's not really a great mindset to attach emotions to outcomes like how many players call your raise etc. Just accept what happens and move on. You can of course disregard that if you just play for fun and want to have an emotional entertaining experience.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 12:41 p.m.
Preflop is probably fine but I personally prefer to just 3bet or fold most hands when OOP.
Flop raise is no good and it's already close to a fold after there is a bet and a call. You will frequently be up against, pair+spade, flush, set or two overcards and a spade (i.e. a situation you will either have slightly more than 0EV against the two other players hands or be way behind). It's really important to have redraw potential if behind in those situations. The reg can also have QQ+ quite frequently. Thin value raises are usually a bad idea on monotone flops. Turn I would also shove with like 1/3 pot bet left but raising into two strong ranges with a big size OTF means you'll often be behind OTT.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 11:40 a.m.
I think that the mass database analysis would confirm that turn 2x overbets are really underbluffed, so good spot to find a fold I guess?
I don't like this analysis because database analysis will lump together players that bluff less than 5% and players that bluff 70% and they might sum up to like 25% bluffs or something (might be same players on and off tilt too). You also have to factor in preflop limp, country and timings and those don't translate easily to database search. I think the way to use database analysis is to learn from it and incorporate it into your overall approach but not make decisions solely based on it.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 10:33 a.m.
The way OP describes the snap shove is seen by 2 types of players at this limit - total spazzes with ATC and some tricky regs mind-fucking you.
LOL, I sometimes try to do that when I play against nitty regs in HU and know I won't get paid off close to as often as "I should". It never really works though.
Dec. 1, 2018 | 10:29 a.m.
Shouldn't he start to fold worst Kx and worst pair+GS OTT? It's not like he has all pair+draw hands and Kx OTR or?
I think spot is close vs passive player and he has like the strongest hand that can consider folding.
Nov. 30, 2018 | 11:29 a.m.
Ranges seems a bit wide too me even with large ante. Maybe this is more reasonable?
#Board#Ad 8c 7c
#TurnConfig.BetSize#33 80 2e
#TurnConfig.RaiseSize#70 110 allin
#RiverConfig.BetSize#33 80 160 allin
#RiverConfig.RaiseSize#70 110 allin
#TurnConfigIP.BetSize#33 80 2e
#TurnConfigIP.RaiseSize#52 70 allin
#RiverConfigIP.BetSize#33 80 160 allin
#RiverConfigIP.RaiseSize#52 70 allin
Nov. 29, 2018 | 4:12 p.m.
I must say I'm a little surprised you strive to have a verbal thought process you can speak out loud at all times. I have found that when I am on my A game there are close to no language based poker thought process and it's almost exclusively visual. I mean visual in terms of seeing different outcomes almost like a tree, overall range estimates for one or both players, seeing how ranges and the board texture interact, visualizing unpaired hands, nutted value hands etc that could get there, combinations of stats and many different other things.
I am curious what the A+ game looks like for other people. Maybe I am the odd one that is way stronger visually than verbally and that language based thinking can be at least as good for other people.
Nov. 24, 2018 | 2:14 p.m.
Nov. 21, 2018 | 10:16 a.m.
Nov. 20, 2018 | 12:17 p.m.
Given your reads and his stats I'd fold because it's usually just value hands. The mindset of many of these tighter more passive players seems to be to avoid paying off when they have marginal hands and try to get max value from their good ones.
Nov. 19, 2018 | 1:50 p.m.
Both flop and turn check are totally fine plays. You need to check all your overpairs and AJ type hands OTT and should therefore check a lot if you cbet flop with those at a high frequency, which you probably shouldn't.
In terms of hand strength you have a hand that can bet turn and river for a medium size and it's too thin to XR. That hand class often plays better as bet but I don't think it's that accurate to think like that here given the overall strength of villains range. When villains range gets as strong as it is here you can't bluff many hands and it's easy to get in trouble if you bet too many hands for value.
Nov. 18, 2018 | 12:41 p.m.
Yes, that is 90%of the variance. Also really good run outs and having AA when villain does have KK are examples of variance.