Turn bet size is too small and anything less than 80% pot is likely a clear mistake.
River is kind of pointless to discuss readless for 25NL because villain is likely to either bluff a ton or just donk some strong hands. KK is probably just too strong to fold given the amount of money that has gone in the pot thus far.
Oct. 6, 2018 | 12:48 p.m.
Snowie is pretty close to the better simulations I've seen for VPIP against a 3bet when raise sizes and rake are similar. Range construction and hand selection is slightly off compared to the stronger models. Tight seems to be right OOP vs 3bet in games with lots of rake and people mostly 3betting top hands.
Sept. 30, 2018 | 10:56 p.m.
That would be a logical conclusion but I tried to focus more on the process than the conclusion as I find it more useful to try to improve process than finding the best conclusion of this hand.
What good does finding the conclusion to this exact spot do to your overall poker skills and win rate?
Sept. 28, 2018 | 12:49 p.m.
A tip for when you use PIO is to focus more on the EV and less on the exact play PIO advises with individual combos.
Overall frequencies are important but not so much the exact frequencies of exact combos, and if you want to look at frequencies for exact combos then something like pure bet, pure check, high mix, about 50/50 and low mix is really all you need to try to be concerned about.
Sept. 28, 2018 | 12:26 p.m.
Snowie is weak for 4bet and 5bet stuff but quite good for opening and BB VPIP against opens.
I'd recommend getting Monker or Simple Preflop Holdem for preflop solving. Results are better than PIO edge from my experience and requires about 1/10th of the RAM to get similar quality. They can also solve multiway preflop spots but that requires a lot of RAM when you allow 3+ players to go postflop with high SPR.
Sept. 28, 2018 | 12:19 p.m.
I disagree with ChaoRen's statement if it's meant to say you should ignore the PIO outputs entirely or not use PIO at all at these limits, but I agree if he means to not follow it blindly. The PIO sim shows the condition under which 88 is close to a 0EV call on the turn.
-Villain needs to squeeze wide like 11%
-Flop cbet needs to be very high like close to 100%
-Villain needs to continue on the turn with the vast majority of his bluffs.
If you ask me that scenario is about as good as you can hope for when facing the turn shove holding 88, and the average strategy villain is playing is likely to be tighter preflop and more passive postflop which makes it likely that folding is higher EV than calling.
Also remember that villain showing up with KQ doesn't validate the call because it's a hand he needs to play this way close to 100% according to the PIO model to make 88 either 0EV or marginally +EV.
Sept. 28, 2018 | 12:04 p.m.
A lot if you're a complete beginner and close to 0 if you're an elite player trying to compete in the toughest games online.
Aug. 31, 2018 | 9:34 a.m.
Yeah, but for most hands it's within 4 percentage points of naive number. The effect seems to be strongest on Axx boards and here is a SPF sim that shows the effect for a few different hands with HU ranges and modest bet sizes. Equity in top right is the fold equity the hand has with a 3/4rd pot river cbet on AhTh5d8c6d.
Aug. 21, 2018 | 1:28 p.m.
Fold preflop. I don't even think it's a close spot. It's difficult to range the cold flat but with top 2pair and blocking sets you have a clear go for stacks hand at this SPR, and probably also with like 2-3x the SPR.
Aug. 19, 2018 | 1:11 p.m.
Do you have any thoughts on how the SB complete as overlimp changes when there are large ante in play and no rake impact like in MTTs. Based on a few models it looks like it should be possible to VPIP around 80% of hands but it's difficult to get enough data to know without almost 6 months of playing the strategy.
Aug. 15, 2018 | 4:40 p.m.
Aug. 11, 2018 | 8:58 a.m.
Try the format and see if you think it can be something for you. It is definitely one of the formats with highest EV on regulated European sites. I think consensus is that EV deals are best for Spins and make sure you get a deal with one of the better stables. That might require you to play a sample at a certain stake before they accept your application but it will likely be worth it long term. A lot of the contracts are really long because of coaching and people accepting those contracts.
Aug. 11, 2018 | 8:42 a.m.
The people that do flat CO at these stakes do flat K9s some of the time. Villain is likely to cold call like 7% or something and a set of 99 will be around 4% of his range OTF.
MW KQ will be around bottom of value range for that size and folding AK no BDFD is really just folding one of the hands that plays the worst vs a raise. In theory it's probably a low mix cbet and then a mix between call and fold vs raise. Turn shove is probably just horrible in practice.
Aug. 7, 2018 | 7:37 p.m.
I'd just fold to flop raise. You bet around 70% pot into two ranges that haven't really had the chance to bet their sets and 2pair. Then you face a large flop raise with BB still in the hand. The flop action signals a huge hand for CO and K9s and 99 can be high frequency hands for him preflop.
I would instead play more cautiously OOP MW and either check or bet a smaller size between 25% pot and 40% pot.
Aug. 6, 2018 | 9:19 p.m.
Traditionally the path was to play a little, decide to improve, read books to learn preflop and essential concepts. Move on to training videos after that, then maybe get some coaching and continue to study videos. Also gradually start to do more independent work and learn to study with advanced software.
The coach Peter Clarke on this site has written a book that seems to be the most popular book to learn basics but it's been over three years since I read a poker book now so I am not up to date.
Aug. 4, 2018 | 9:38 p.m.
I am surprised ante tables are not more popular on European sites. There is so much more action and fun (at least for me) on ante tables. Maybe it is less important with fast fold because you will spend more time on interesting spots and can quickly make the standard ones and get a new hand.
Aug. 3, 2018 | 2:38 p.m.
Simple answer is yes, and preflop advisor will cover most of the relevant spots.