Ok, first of all: there is no bet/fold on the river. He got like 45 BB's left and the pot is 73, so either all getting in, or you don't put any other chip in the pot.
Now, if you bet the river, the only hand that will call you is a full house. The naked J should always fold there, because when you pot it on the turn, you essentially told him that you got the nuts staight. So you check the river.
Now, when he bet the river, will be verry polarized and your decision depends verry much of his tendencies: if he is willing to bluf when missing draws, you should definitely consider a call, if he never bluf, you kinda have to let it go.
Now let's think of what he can have: he 3bets 11%, so that means a lot of double suited connectors, alongside aces and some strong kings and queens. When he checks back on that flop, that means he doesn' have an A, neither hearts, so the only hand that make sense to call the turn with is like a club flush draw. So, on the river, the only hand that beats you is TJ with a club draw. So how likely is to have that?
Jan. 12, 2017 | 5:40 a.m.
Yes, that shit works at PLO10, but in this particular spot, there is no point to go for that.
You can do that play in a spot like this: you have AAxx, flop is, let's say, Kxx with a flush draw that you block with one of your aces, villan lead flop and turn, you call, the flush hit the river and villan check. And if the board isn't paired, you can go for the nuts blocker bluf.
Jan. 12, 2017 | 4:46 a.m.
I always shove turn in that spot, because, as the hand plays out, the only hand that beats you there is 9J for the nuts str8, but he wouldn have it all the times, and even if he have it, you drawing pretty good against it.
When he bet pot on the turn is verry unlikely to have a set, because he have to slow down because of the str8 potential, and you block all the sets anyway.
If he is a lose aggresive, could have a bounch of combo draws here, like AKJ with some backdoor flush draws, which play it aggresive and turn it into a bluf on the river, because the pot is already too big and he got like 4 to 1 bluffing odds.
As played, on that river you have to find some hero calls, because if you only wait for the nuts, you will be exploited pretty bad in this spot, and top two pairs is one of those hero calls, especially when the broadway straight didn't get there. It will be preferred to block a 9 or a J, but you can call anyway.