that s why you don't get the time to make good theory videos anymore ....
Nov. 27, 2014 | 5:04 p.m.
Preflop: i prefer 3bet here, to represent a
wider range in
hand like yours is.
still fine, as deep you’ll have lot of possibilities otf and after.
top 2/BDFD Q high and also gutshot.
I’m not raising here a large part of my
range, then I’m not raising here as well.
He could call us a lot with this stacks and
on many cards we are in the dark.
Any hearts, Tens,kings,aces.
Calling here seems to be “standard”.
Turn: I would raise a lot of hands, now the
draw equity is weakened and we can represent a nut on this card (67) who make
sense to only peeling flop.
I think we have equity and fold equity and
both gives us a nice spot to raise.
i agree Patrick, near to 30$ is good and enough here.
As played :
River is one of worst cards possible. He won’t
have all the time KK/AA but this cards is not great for our range.
Raise here won’t make sense but calling
I call here, he could bet with AQ/KQ and a
lot of weaker hands thinking you missed your draw
Sept. 8, 2014 | 6:59 p.m.
preflop it's not necessary to 3bet here.
you know (i think) you'll have a multiway the large part of the time and watching on equity distribution your hand his not so strong (dominating ranges ofc but not hitting lot of flops)
you have a bad position and it's the first thing to look here i guess.
as played, you have to look the SPR ! here it closes to 3 and then you need 42%> to gii at least ev0
in a HU spots OTF and if both goes all in you need 30%~
you have OP/NFD => look vs their ranges how equity you have and push versus the flop bet
for me here it's a clear all in OTF
when he have DP/Set or TP/Draws and he hits => thats the game !
Sept. 5, 2014 | 11:32 a.m.
call or 3bet your hands seems ok
you have 20 blinds and 3bet to snap a shove looks good but i would call if no squeezer in button or in blinds.
i don't want to weaken my hand playing a mw.
+ for calling
range advantage versus his lagish play => he could folds vs a 3bet but giving you chips cbetting or...
+ for 3bet
great hand/range advantage
as played i raise his cbet and obv is to put my stack on the middle
i'm not happy to just calling because - push here could sounds as a draw (but you have draw and ocs too - A/K would be the best hand often) and he can call slightly your push
if you just call here and on any cards else spade/K/Q your equity will be weakened by the board versus an EP range (but folding will be hard...)
we have to collect chips to play to the win => preflop is closer than it can sound first but on this flop, i dislike doing anything else than to push.
if he folds, you win an interesting pot and if he calls, you have maybe the best hand or a split hand and if not you have a good equity (exept versus set but you're not dead too)
raise here for me
Sept. 5, 2014 | 10:05 a.m.
here we have just to look to SPR
close to 4 !
DP and a little blocker on SD who also gives you slighty improving chances turn/river and obv your full outs.
as Patrick said "jam !"
Sept. 3, 2014 | 8:54 a.m.
you say he's a solid reg then this leads questions :
A- how often are you leading OTF ? (% donkbet)
on what type of texture your leading ?
are you in your mind balanced on your leading ?
if you're balanced and have some check raise too in your moves, leading here seems pretty good. Lot of "bad" turns and we wants to grow up the pot with not many cards to improve our hand.
B - how many times do you defend your BB calling pF vs an CO OR in a situation like that -> HU situation closing action preflop.
C - what is your 3betpct on the BB and typicaly versus LP steal ?
all the points gives informations on what villain here have in perception of your range/hand.
if your calling in that situation a strong range, you rarely hit powerful's hands and if you have "high" donk betting range on the flop, you also could have some draws here, typicaly rundowns, medium or high FD,...
if your 3betting your high pairs like KK/AA the 4d is a good card for an overpair on his range JJ-AA.
if your calling on BB a realy solid range your equity on this flop is highly polarized and more on the turn.
telling he's a RIO member is ok but what do you know about is agression on the diferent streets ?
you have only a bluff catcher OTR and do you think regarding his tendencies its enough to call ? => without informations it's pretty clearly impossible to say it
""thinking"" GTO and using some maths who are on the Janda's Book
he have to have in his bet range OTT close to 51.5% of VB and also have to bet to be clean in his move, 74.5% OTR.
and on his 74.5% betting range OTR 70%~ have to be value
on this bet sizing OTR we have to defend calling him with our best 30% range (bluff catchers)
unless we are pretty sure he is not agressive IP/River and have a high checking back range with valuable hands 4x without full, overpair and thinking he rarely turn as a bluff a miss draw+something, we need to make the call here.
it's not a clear call obvisously but and he could hit a 2 outers with this queen or have aces too but i think versus an agressive player and again if some of the points asked first "validate" the thinking calling turn to fold river doesn't realy make sense imo
Sept. 3, 2014 | 8 a.m.
as i said on the first post, bet/fold with a small size is only versus some players who "never bluffs" and i said i'm not sure with that SPR is it the best play.
we are in bad shape only versus a narrow part of hands but using ptools we can see with his range (if we assume is it correct and only hero can says) we are not crushing our opponent.
but yes again, with this SPR (1) shoving is definitly correct at least
Sept. 2, 2014 | 11:16 p.m.
on this locked-down boards - potting is not necessary.
here if you have nuts are you realy interested by potting ?
you have 3 streets to put your stack on.
then potting isn't the best option here.
with more hands versus your opponent it could be an interesting option knowing how he is playing regarding size bets calling wider on small bets -floating or chasing poor equity.
my concern here is to be balanced nuts/air (or somethink with a polarized equity such an overpair with backdoors).
another thing, he haven't ever flush here or set or another (but not a lot hands) hand with a good bluff catcher or good equity.
for me cbetting small > potting here
and without informations about villain i'll play the hand as if i have fold equity
with a lower SPR potting will make more sense imo
Sept. 2, 2014 | 10:16 p.m.
i look a little "late" to your post but it is interesting me ^^
in my vision we have to look on their spots all scénarios
I allowed myself to use a replayer a French website that is friendly and who permit to visualize the
A ‐ calling
pot : 350
your stack is the effective stack (1617) and then SPR will be :
1587/350=4.53 and in a Heads Up situation you'll need 45% if you want to stack off on the flop.
in a 3 way situation you'll need 31%
calling will gives us a 3 way obviously.
using propokertools we can look to differents things.
stats assuming => BU 25% & SB 40%
select avg(riverEquity(Hero)) /* avg flop Hero equity*/ as AVG_Equity,
count(minHVREquity(Hero,flop,0.40)) /* how often hero will have 40% of
equity on the flop */ as Frequence_hitflop
from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic',
We’ll found flop with 40% of equity (to be larger and thinking the fact we are Oop versus BU/3bet)
on 37.5% of the flops.
And also we’ll found an average equity versus their 2 ranges of 32%.
With your hand you’ll have a FD near to 24% (but only half of this equity will gives you a nut draw)
select count(fourFlush(PLAYER_1,flop)) /* How often PLAYER_1 have a four flush on the flop */ as
from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic',
Results : 23.89%
If you hit consistently the flop you’ll have a good equity to stack off and maybe FE on a check/raise
(maybe leading will be great, feel free to tell, it’s your spot ^^ )
Maybe the most interresting or relevant : how often you’ll have at least TP flop. Including all mades
select count(minFlopHandCategory(PLAYER_1,FLOPTOPPAIR)) /* How often PLAYER_1 flop hand
category at least toppair */ as COUNT1
from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic',
Results : 43.98%
(changing minFlopHandCategory by exactFlopHandCategory the result is 28% who is the pct of you’ll
hit TP on flop)
Back to the hand now.
On lot of flops you’ll have « something », using the Avg equity you’ll have 32% and more than 1/3 of
times you’ll have 40% (using pql runner copying/pasting the code you can show for 50% changing 0.4 to 0.5 ‐ or what you want)
Pot = 350
On 37.5% of flops you have 40% and you could chose leading/check‐raising/check‐calling or obv fold.
~12% of the time you’ll have NFD and 28% TP => 40% you are with something. More/less…
It’s hard to make maths here but …
telling BB checks and you do the same. Buton cbetting for …. 200$
BB calls or folds (if he goes to a check/raise, you have to estimate his range and your equity).
He folds :
‐ If you’re check raising when action backs to you, something like 600 keeping 900+ on
your stack, your commit and you have to gii.
‐ Check calling : pot become 750 with near to 2PSB left
Checkraise : FE ?
If we assume you have 10% of FE and 35% equity – if buton shoves after your move. (you can use the code and remove SB et put 4% to BU and the avg_result = 0.35
Ev in this case = 237.4$
The simulation gives us 35% equity on 47% of flops
237*0.47=an avg_EV calling of 111.57
We have to call 75$ and we lose this money 53% of the time
Including the times losing the preflop call we make a +EV of 71.82$ and when we miss, we « only »
lose 75$ and not risking our entire stack
B – 4betting pf.we pot here = 425
If both folds :=> +245
If Bu calls & bb folds => same simulation but with new datas. Pot= 960
Effective stack = 1297$
SPR = 1.35 => 36.5% eq needed to stack off (a little more than your avg equity but imo ok with FE)
Using the avg_eq => 32% and again 20% FE. Thinink he won’t stack off with his entire range but close
to his 4/5% strong hands.
We have a close EV 4betting/gii vs shove with calling preflop but a pretty better situation regarding
risk/reward and average equity to stack off.
Ps : if we give him only 10% folding versus our 4bet we have a 4betting/call EV of ‐47.75$
Options are villain depend too.
hoping not to have erred in the way
feel free to comment or correct my words ;)
PS2 : to be comprehensive we have to simulate all situations - call & 3 way/4bet & 3 way
sorry to not doing this now, i'm a little tired :)
Sept. 2, 2014 | 9:11 p.m.
yeah math is the way :D
but first of all we have to take care to equity distribution of our hand versus opponents range.
using again propokertools we can 2 things.
effective stack will be on flop : 23.43
then spr will be : 23.43/5.35=4.38
then you'll need to stack off on flop on a EV0 point : 4.38/(4.38*2+1)=>44,9%
here we go to look how often you have this equity versus his range et what your average equity when you'll stack off !
count(minHVREquity(Hero,flop,0.449)) /* how often the hero's hand have 0.449 (44.9%) of equity on the flop
*/ as Frequence_hitflop
from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic',
AVG_EQUITY :0.33 (33%)
your average equity will be versus his range : 33% (not enough to stack off with the SPR regarless of FE off course)
and you'll have 44.9% of equity on only 29.84 flops.
if you make maths with this informations, yep, fold preflop is better i think (not enough time to do the math myself for the moment ;) )
as played, calling flop ? but to gii on wich turn ?
if we're "affraid" by flush cards and by all our non nuts outs => better to fold now!
if villain will tell us how strong he is checking to giving up on our outs it's closer but i'm not really fan of this line/plan.
you can think about these spots making trees with all cards to come, on wich you'll be ok to stack off and how often it will happen
add all the situations : 9/45*ev_turn_on_this_cards+6/45*ev_turn............+30/45*(-flop call)
and you have a pretty clear situation of the value off calling or not here
have a nice day
Sept. 2, 2014 | 1:46 p.m.
betting small is a pretty good option regardless of the opponent.
i explain with an example using pokerjuice to modify your hand :
we have on your spot AAQ 6 instead of AAK6.
if your opponent is interrested by the flop he goes all in no matter of your hand/range.
then betting full pot or small realize the same thing !
now if we have an weaker hand as in the reality of the hand and a passive/weaker vilain in front of us he won't raise us a lot looking his hand straight forward.
you can with bet small bluff with a great risk/reward ratio and also induce moves versus toughs players.
the concern of this sizings is to be aware of the profil and tendancies of our opponents but we won't be exploitable if we keep a good balancing air/nuts or dominating hands regarding opponent's ranges.
Sept. 2, 2014 | 1:15 p.m.
we can make a simulation using propokertools with the
PQL Runner :
/* How often PLAYER_2 flop hand category at least trips */ as COUNT1 from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic', board='qcqh8h',PLAYER_1='AsAc6hKc',PLAYER_2='6%:[9+][9+][9+]!RR'
COUNT1 = (42.75%)
Giving to you opponent an range Top 6% with 3 cards >9
and no pair constaint he have a trips here in near to 43% of the time.
He could also have a FD very often
select count(fourFlush(Villain,flop)) /* How often
PLAYER_2 have a four flush on the flop */ as COUNT1 from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic', board='qcqh8h',Hero='AsAc6hKc',Villain='6%:[9+][9+][9+]!RR'
COUNT1 = (55.22%)
Running « standards »
equity simulation :
Board - qcqh8h
PLAYER_1 AsAc6hKc = 43,18%
PLAYER_2 6%:[9+][9+][9+]!RR = 56,82%
a raise it’s on my opinion a good option if you do the same with quite of your
Trips/full/OP & NFD/…/air
cbetting small a large part of our range give us wide possibilities the only point who makes it uncertain here is the SPR.
why giving to an opponent pretty good odds with a small SPR
it could be ok if and only if we do this with our entire range and then will be balanced and non face up on a stab
going on an exploitive thinking, if villain is really fit or fold and "never" moves regarding our sizings bet, c-betting small to give up is i think a really good option with air/nuts hands !
Sept. 2, 2014 | 11:33 a.m.
i have a question here : what do you expect 3 betting here ?
i don't say we don't have to 3bet but, we have to think moving préflop, to all possibilities.
we have also or more than others things to think/anticipate SPR on flop.
here, ok, we are 3 way but with a SPR close to 1.3 and we have OP/GS and "blockers" on Straight draws/hands who hit consistently his flop.
this flop is pretty good for your range ! less for the button's range.
preflop : Button only calls a EP raise and also calls your 3bet+UTG+1 call ! his range is a lot of thing but weakened by the preflop action.
of course he can have DP or FD but you cannot only or ever give to villains worst hands for your range.
with this SPR it's for me a clear cbet pot (due to SPR) and obviously a call versus a push.
i mean with this, you have to be quite clear with your moves and anticipate (again) what you'll do on futures streets.
else... why 3 betting ;) and obviously it's a 3bet with this monster hand :)
Sept. 2, 2014 | 10:22 a.m.
typically pokerjuice can make same things as ptools but lot more.
it's very more useful to think scenarios that is something hard to do only with propokertools.
it's more accurate and simple to use with the "inteligent syntax" and the integrated modules are helpful in a lot of situation.
honestly using pokerjuice will increase our compréhension of the game and it will hard to come back to another software.
ev on 4bet spots and lot more
you can test it downloading on the website : http://pokerjuice.com/ with a 7 days trial
you need odds oracle installed on your computer to use pokerjuice.
you can also download a trial on the propokertools website
wish you some good work ;)
Sept. 1, 2014 | 5:50 p.m.
first of all, looking to what you said OTF "but if we assume he is tight and.... good cards"
if you have this read about him you have to fold you're hand !
basicly in this spot, you find a "good" flop and you didn't move hoping he'll check on next streets ?
i don't really like this way to play :" i'm in position, i call and let's see"
obvsiouly i use words u didn't used but i have this feeling looking to your comments (no offense bro)
if we assume his range is AA** this flop is typicaly a very nice one to raise his cbet.
we have here : equity + fold equity (maybe) !
OTF you need ~45% of equity to stack off and if we give him a strong range (pokerjuice style ranges) aa:k9+,aa:(ss,dd,cc) you have 49%.
if he's really tight he could folds on a raise here. his sizing is not pretty big and we can think he made it because he 3bet preflop and he's Oop.
when you'r peeling here, your hands smells as a draw and maybe what you have : pair + draw !
thinking this the turn is a really good card to bet again ! this card is better to villain's range than for yours !
in this flop you have : middle pair/OESD & 2 backdoors flushes
=> you came on this spot to find THIS flop !
but if the turn comes 2 of heart, your equity will down and we don't want to play/stay in game with less equity.
calling => wich cards are you waiting for OTT ?
raising this flop you increase poentially your ev !
if he folds you win : pot*p(folds)
then if he folds 10% of the time your EVfold is 3.45$
and if he pushes (hard to think he just calls a raise regarding to stack sizes) you only make a classis ev calculation.
for the "global" situation you can do (assuming he will folds 10 percent of the time) :
pot*0.1+(evwhen he pushes)*(1-0.1)
never underestimate our FE or think we have no FE.
as played OTF, for me we have to push or fold OTT = calling here to folds river versus a shove with near to 1:4 is dramatic.
i share you on the link below a pokerjuice simulation and you'll see on the range distribution part giving to villain strong hands "how often" he have AA and other hands
for me it's a raise/call on the flop and if not, we have to choose OTT but calling is near to the worst we can do i think
Aug. 31, 2014 | 11:02 p.m.
3betting here seems good, your opponent is pretty agressive and your hand is away from his range !
i like the check on this flop, he's better for his range than yours and you often are away
check/calling flop is for calling turn or its bad to call flop imo.
too deep to move but too strong hand to fold
the turn is an blank and i would sometimes lead a spade or check/call river to let him bet/bluff with a last bullet.
you also have a gusthot and oc's who seems great cards to check/call river
it's difficult here to choose c/calling or bet/raise on a street
we are away a large part of the time but raising him and when he find a call or shove we are on bad shape
i prefer c/c all streets here ;)
Aug. 25, 2014 | 2:20 p.m.
Hi nice video thx you are German ?
Aug. 17, 2014 | 10:58 p.m.
the flop will give a FD ~~ 55% but you will find it with a one suited hand only 11% of the time. 4/5 when the flops came with two suited cards => you'll not have a FD !
if you hit part of the board (pair/weak draw + BDFD) you'll be in a bad position and it will be hard to value bests hands
not enough hit & hard to make value the rest of the time
Aug. 13, 2014 | 5:56 p.m.
you are Oop with a weak draw and just TPTK.
lot of people have to talk after you.
if you hit ur gutshot, you're not sure to make value and your opponent may have a lot a implied against you.
thinking the fold is totaly ok and if i play a similar spot, my question is more 'how often calling here will be profitable postflop?'
i'm not really sure you'll hit so often strong and clear in this spot.
- you hit, its hard to make money
- you miss, you only lose the preflop call
- you hit a part of the board, you may lose more money.
maybe fold preflop is the better way. i'm not so sure but...
Aug. 12, 2014 | 8:07 p.m.
in this specifically spots, we have to make parts of our range.
cbetting range : nuts/air/dominating hands versus villain range.
with your 20% of 3betting here.
running few simulations in odds oracle, we can see with the top 20% of hands on a flop like : 8h8dTs
we'll have a hand :
overpair : 39% of the time
trips : 9% of the time
Full or quad : 6% of the time
total of "good" hands : 54% !
in opposition we have 25% or air here ! (no pair)
the 20% represents : 42465 combos.
we want to do various things cbetting or not here.
- make value or bluff when we bet (QQ on this board is it a bluff or a value ? ^^)
- check back but not to give up on any leading on the turn made bu our opponent.
we have to make then different part of ranges (our various ranges)
- cbet/call or raise
- check/give up
- check/call a bet or delay cbet on the turn. (cc when we are Oop obv)
the sizing of our bet will tell us how many time we have to cbet with a part or another one of our total range.
if we bet pot : we have to take the pot without consideration of our equity 50% of the time.
Bet/(bet+pot) and if betting the pot => bet=pot then is 1/2 = 50%
to make our opponent indifferent to call with our cbet, he have to call the "best" 33% of his own range.
here we have to look in some few things, first of all the SPR.
cbetting QQ-AA in a 3bet pot (with some backdoors or not) with a SPR near to one is everytime ok (with KK or AA, villain would 4bet a large part of the time).
but in a deeper spot, we have to found our balance.
to take a short cut :
cbet a part of our trips and our "best" overpairs : KK-AA
checking back a part of our trips and our "worst" overpairs : JJ-QQ
=> trips with no oc's like 8765 (good part of checking back)
=> QQ with backdoors like QhQdJsx (lot of good turns)
this is a way to make a good balanced cbetting/checking range i think.
therefore, if you want to balance your ranges, you have to make a work similar to create some ranges in the range !
even so, versus a weak player we'll prefer to exploit his tendancies and in that point we cbet more "trash" hands if he folding a lot (betting pot, if he fold more than 50% we make a profit )
if he's more sticky or if he's tricky and an agressive player, we have to cbet less but with hands (part of range) with we'll not giving up no matter the turn
Jan. 21, 2015 | 9:43 p.m.