I think you don't have a range advantage at all. Your range is a lot wider than villain's range so having more combos of 2pr+ hands doesn't mean anything.
I'd fold pre vs 4bb unless ccer is a big fish.
Folding turn with this combo as a default.
If you have a strong feeling about his size being exploitable then I guess it's okay to try something, but I don't think this clickback is gonna be too good when you have no instant FE OTT.
Feb. 21, 2016 | 11:36 p.m.
I agree with you. Reviewing the hand, our blockers aren't that bad (Js shouldn't block his bluffing range). The weird turn size followed by a bigger river size seems like a tell as well(less 2p+ combos). This + the stacksize and he's almost surely a weaker player, so yea, probably it's a +ev call. The things I wrote in the first comment are more true for a JcJd I guess.
Feb. 5, 2016 | 1:38 p.m.
Agression on turn, river/ River bet would be useful.
I think I'm folding turn unless he has a higher turn bet vs misscb(or turn agg%) with a lowish river agg%. He should never bet worse for value OTT with this size 3way, also checking back his gutters are probably higher ev.
You draw very thin against his value range, and you will have QQ+, JJ, J9s, 98s, etc in this spot so it's not like this is the top of your range anyways.
I'd fold river too readless.
Feb. 3, 2016 | 12:12 p.m.
I'm folding river. As ddogkillah said most Tx are better bluffcatchers if villain doesn't bet Tx for value, also you'll have some Qx and flushes.
I'd expect a lot of players to not only bet their spade draws OTF, but their backdoor heart draws, or straight draws too, so I think with our blockers we won't have a +ev call.. Obviously it varies depending on the player type. The weaker the opponent the closer this spot is at nl10 I guess. Anyways, shitty spot. :)
Feb. 3, 2016 | 11:59 a.m.
Your turn size is a mistake against avg fish I think. Bet at least $2.5, maybe more, and bet bigger OTR as well.
His raise makes it weird because your sizes imply weakness, but in my experience most fishes tend to be passive and mostly raise here with A7, 77, so I'd just call as well imo.
Seeing the results shoving is the play. :D
Feb. 2, 2016 | 2:19 p.m.
I don't feel too good about the big iso with this hand-strength. Maybe against a 60vpip fish.
I actually wouldn't cbet this flop. It hits his range reasonably good, also fishes tend to overcall on flops, and we shouldn't start multibarrelling with hands like this I guess.
As played OTR I think his range contains busted draws, 9x, better Ax, A9, A3, some weak PPs. Against this range I would bet small to maximize his calling range (max. something like half pot). If he seems to have a really high river agg% then ch/calling can be good as well.
Fold to the raise.
Jan. 17, 2016 | 3:24 p.m.
I'd still fold the turn even against him. Calling Q high with very little EQ against value range is probably not gonna be good, but I agree it seems close against him(river bet % matters a lot too). Call with KQ, KJ.
Jan. 17, 2016 | 12:01 p.m.
5bet is the gto play here I believe.
If they can't read range correctly(usually if there's 1 fish) it can be better to flat the cold4, but against 2 okay regs I'd never do that. It's just so faceup strong, that they shouldn't spew money after your call.
Postflop seems fine.
Jan. 17, 2016 | 11:52 a.m.
I think your line is perfectly fine obviously. I would ch turn w/ this combo reasonably often and most of the times call in order to strenghten my checking range and also for the reasons you mentioned(we crush board, blocking his calling range but not his vbetting/bluffing range).
His bet/call seems bad for the reason being most regs simply never ch/raise bluff in this spot. AsJx is probably not a bad bluffcatcher though.. It blocks nutflushes(it might not matter), top sets. Also some spewy guys might bluff ch/raise with hands like QsJx, KsJx, while 3barrelling with their Asx, but overall it will be too rare against an unknown for him to be good after calling imo.
Jan. 17, 2016 | 1:13 a.m.
At first I thought it was CO who called the cold4b. It would be a whole different situation.
If MP is a reasonable reg his range for coldcalling pre is probably something like QQ+, AKs :D Not sure how they play at nl10 but I think we're in a really bad shape and I would definitely fold to the raise shove with QQ... against reasonable regs. Not even sure if we wanna cbet w/ this combo tbh.
Jan. 15, 2016 | 4:55 p.m.
It's BTN. I think AQ should play well against their ranges even in a 3way pot. PO is great as well, so I really don't think it can be -EV to call.
4betting can be better if SB is a whale and coldcalls a really wide range(value against him, bluff against btn). But that's very rare I guess.
Jan. 13, 2016 | 3:14 p.m.
I think preflop can't be anything else than a call. We don't wanna have a polarized 4b range in this spot(coldcaller fish). I would only fold this hand if BTN and SB were both nits.
I think flop should be a fold. SB with a presumably strongish range with only 14 bucks in front of him should affect BB's cbetting range.
River shove seems good.
Jan. 13, 2016 | 1:15 p.m.
Pretty meh, but I think I'd actually fold against a reg here(unless we have some reads). Calling with KK+ simply because then he can show up with QQ sometimes. Also blocking the Qh is fairly bad.
Jan. 12, 2016 | 2:18 p.m.
I don't defend this on the button as a standard, especially against a more agressive cbettor. It can't be very bad though.. hand plays good in 3bpots.
As played I think betting flop with our backdoors+low sdv is better than checking back.
OTT I don't hate the raise itself.. If we have some slowplayed valuehands we will mostly wanna raise this turn. I dislike the sizing though. If you wanna rep those few effective nutcombos, I think you should go at least 30-35bbs.
Jan. 10, 2016 | 4:27 p.m.
BB is shorter and a fish, so I don't really think it makes sense to have a non-allin 4b range here, unless we have some exploitative read.
Against a nittier fish I'd just call pre, otherwise I'd jam as a standard.
Flop is a push in my opinion. I doubt they will bluff enough on blank turns to compensate the risk of an overcard, a 7, or the 2out to their TT,JJ combos, which they're likely stacking off with.
Also, AA-KK should be really infrequent in their ranges.
Jan. 10, 2016 | 4:01 p.m.
I think river is a fold as a standard against the population. It's closer against this guy, but turn, river stats are not too reliable over 550hands, so I'd just muck it.
As you said, besides some Jx this is the bottom of your range.