ilovetiger

if hes folding QQ I dont see why hed call with Kx - sort of the same thing.......I guess he could have some weaker Ax but it still seems like a big mistake for him to be checking Ax OTT here - I think if I had more floats in my range checking becomes much more viable but I dont think I do in this spot

I dont have a specific read I just dont see why he'd checkback Ax OTT when his Ax is pretty strong given he opened UTG.....Do you think people would checkback strong Ax here at a reasonable frequency?

what do you think is optimal sizing? Im thinking somewhere between pot-overbet is ideal....do you guys agree with this and do you think the extra cost of overbetting increases his fold frequencies enough to justify it?

I cant imagine he checks back Ax OTT at any significant frequency esp when my flop calling range is worse Ax/pairs that he can value town for 1 or 2 more streets - would be a big mistake imo.....do you guys really think this is a good board to barrel? I mean when I call the flop the bottom of my range is a pair - in his shoes I'd never bluff this turn unless I have some specific reads.....

so assuming you want to bluff this river what size do you go? Id like to go with a sizing thats very exploitative - I think it works best is these situations

you're expecting to get called by worse betting this river? I dont really see that happening....going to repost in hsmtt

mods please move

ps - if im losing my mind feel free to tell me :)

yeh Id bet bigger on the turn - he prob peels the turn and folds river alot so maximizing turn value is pretty important

think spots like this are a function of the player pool - no one is ever bluffing this spot this early in a tournament but there's a lot of button clickers that will just bet for no apparent reason.....I dont think blockers/folding the top of our range is justifiable to blindly click call in these spots especially in fishy tournaments where exploitative play>GTO.....I think generally I fold these spots but player pool/stat considerations might make me call

shoving doesn't serve much of a purpose imo - hes never b/f better OTT and we beat bluffs......I like the defend provided your going to play well post

seems like an easy b/f given the player pool

easy turn jam

thanks for the responses guys.....at the time I felt it was close but in hindsight it seems much clearer.

@mrsneeze - Isn't this the absolute top of my x/c flop range?

yea - I think I posted this hand originally not because it was a close call or fold but his jam range baffles me....do you guys think we should have a jam range? Personally I can't think of a logical reason to have one but would be open to suggestions

Id just flat the 3b esp if you have a good postflop game.....I don't see the point in 4bing this esp to this size

Doubt he vbets a queen OTR or takes this line with one.....I think this is super close - Im more inclined to call because the turn was a queen and he prob barrels all his gutters,open enders,etc but I think we have a ton of Kx when we call the turn and I think if he saw our hand he wouldn't try to bluff us OTR....I think of a blank turn this is a  river fold but very close as played

so novy89 is the player in question?

Thanks for the replies guys...Heres some quick thoughts on my end in regards to jamming

-the flatters are going to fold here a very high % imo .....these guys were calling fairly wide pre and would probably interpret my jam as very strong...with that said if you give the flatters a range of (33-tt,a9-aq,kt-kq,jts,qj) and a calling range of (99,tt,aq) I get called 31% of the time and have 39% eq vs that range...the next concern and probably the crux of the situation is the opener....say I thought he was opening wide at 15% and calling a fairly tight range of tt-aa,aq,ak - he looks to be calling 1/3 of the time and folding 2/3 thus when I jam here I'm getting called roughly 2/3 of the time with an avg equity of 38%....

so 2/3 of the time I get called and and my equity is 126k costing me 17k.....when it folds through 1/3 of the time I pick up 59k.....with those numbers jamming is profitable especially considering the utilization of chips - frankly if this was a breakeven/slight losing spot I would still take it given how well I could utilize chips vs passive recs....a couple questions

1.is my math right? I'm a little retarded with math so I might be off here :)

2.Are my assumptions reasonable? The recs had high VPIPs so I think these ranges are somewhat accurate......

Look forward to hearing your replies!

bump - dieing to hear Phil explain this one!

your necessary bankroll is highly dependent on your game selection....say you take 2 players - player 1 plays games he has a small edge in, turbos, hyper turbos, and big field tournaments....player 2 cuts out some of the tougher mtts, plays little to no turbos and may skip some of the massive field games......player 2s variance is going to be nowhere near player 1 - granted player 2 will be making less EV(generally) then player 1 but he'll realize his EV a lot better.....personally I think sacrificing some EV for sanity is the way to go but everyone has their risk tolerance level.

dont think the call down is too good unless the villan is triple barreling the bottom of his range at near the same freq hes value betting....say villan opens 20%(is this reasonable?) and barrels away with a polarized range of a5+,hearts, and trash - about 55% of a 20% range contains those value hands so we really need him to be overbluffing like a mad man to hero it up.....Im sure NSB had some sick reads to make this profitable but in general I think the turn is a fold

well you definitely have a bluff catcher with his river sizing and I dont see him having many bluffs........what do you think of his river sizing? I think its highly exploitable against thinking players but is great against weaker opponents who will snap off too light here....I guess he could have bluffs theoretically to make it more of a balanced range but it seems suicidal to be overbet bluffing people off 2 pair in MTTs

seems like a fairly straightforward PPT calc to me.....eyeballing it I wouldnt be surprised if its a slight fold given someone has hearts here alot and both of them block alot of your outs