Hi, I believe you flop bet is a bit fishy, that's probably why BB felt provoked and raised to 5x. But he shouldn't have much more than a flushdraw (+ some K pairs in worst casea scenario like K8s-KJs), and 33. Small Axs and Kxs should be 3betting pre, also 64s, 45s IMO. When the 3 hits the river It's just less likely he had a set of 3s and I think you are only beat by some slow played KK (unlikely), Quads 3. But lots of draws bricked. Easy call.
June 28, 2020 | 6:18 p.m.
I don't think strong hands like overpairs are checking that flop, Qx only calls, unless It's something like AQ or KQ, not just Qx. 9x for merge reasons? what do you mean? Why would he ever want to put a 9x hand in a c/r range if that hand has good showdown value and the higher EV play is to check? Gutshots I agree may do that so a J or T might be a part of his range.
So you say people don't raise flush draws when the turn gives them 1 to a flush? I've catched lots of river bluffs were ppl c/r turn hitting the 1 to a flush draw and misses the river, so they feel the need to keep bluffing, I have to disagree here.
June 9, 2020 | 12:54 p.m.
So what do you think is the bluff range here and value range? Like I said, I believe all Hands 2p+ are probably c/r flop, so what hand checks flop and c/r turn? slow played 77 or 99? maybe AQ? . BTW I think having a club is bad here, not good, since I want him to have clubs in order for him to be bluffing, J8 also blocks many hands that want to c/r turn as a bluff. So if I block many bluffs (meaning he doesn't have many?) here whats the value range?
June 3, 2020 | 11:15 p.m.
May 30, 2020 | 4:24 p.m.
SB: $18.16 (Hero)
BN wins $15.38
Rake is $0.72
April 17, 2020 | 2:58 p.m.
CO: $16.00 (Hero)
April 16, 2020 | 5:34 p.m.
This is why you shouldn't be 3betting UTG opens with 109s. 240bb deep Villain is only 4betting prob with AA (cause he's got no inf on you, right?), so his calling range I think is still very strong. If you have a read on villain being loose and a station maybe could work.
I think the main point here is that you think villains calling range here is weak, but 240bb deep UTG open / calling range contains everything you want to represent, except maybe AA.
Also he doesn't have any info on you, so he's probably playing even nittier.
That being said, once we get called on the flop we need to think about his range again, what hands are floating and what hands are waiting to get value. I'd probably fold 66 and 44 to the pre flop 3bet of unkwown players and diamond draws are unlikely, so there's very few hands that can call a 3bet and call the cbet.
I don't like the size of the flop cbet. If we are trying to get better hands to fold (right?) you should bet bigger, also, If you have a K in this scenario, we should be giving flush draws bad price to draw or at least 25% (half pot bet) that's the break even point to a flush draw.
I'd say KK, KQs, AK as value hands and AQd QQ,JJ, 1010, 99 bluff catching/floaters.
Against this range you hand have 30% EQ.
So once the turn comes Js, I'd defintely put the breaks and try to realize my EQ by the river.
You are risking 13.37 to win 9.65 with 30% EQ. The ev of the play is (0.3x9.65)-(0.7x13.37) = -6.464 usd.
As long as bluffs for shoving here,I just dont see any. I don't belive villain is doing this with 99 or 1010 or AdQd It's just too spewy, given how much strength you are repping.
April 13, 2020 | 2:56 p.m.
The play is -EV. You will loose 15.45 dolars every time you make that play assuming he pays TP+ (66,77,88,AA, AJo+and, A10s+) folds drawing hands and bluffs (KQs,KJs,KTs, QJs,QTs, random air) which I think It's a fair range for a turn bet.
You have 45% EQ against this range.
so (0,45x69) - (0,55x183) if he's calling every time = -71usd
(0,45x69)-(0,25x183) calling half of the time = -15usd
But to be honest, his range consists a lot more of value hands than bluffs, so probably EV of the play is even worst, but again he might fold some aces to a shove.
On the other hand, if you just call, you call is +EV
(0,45x69) - (0,55x26) = 17,3
April 11, 2020 | 8:55 a.m.
I didn't see 79s here, thnxs, It's four more combos. The thing is that at this level people are not jaming here for bluffs, it's not like he's going to take 77 and jam river knowing he's beat, so it's a good exploitable fold at this level (altho I payed him this time) IMO
April 8, 2020 | 5:15 p.m.
SB: $10.19 (Hero)
April 8, 2020 | 3:17 p.m.
UTG: $14.10 (Hero)
March 21, 2020 | 2:41 p.m.
SB: $5.43 (Hero)
March 12, 2020 | 12:07 a.m.
SB: $5.37 (Hero)
Dec. 14, 2019 | 3:12 p.m.
Is it to nity to just fold on the flop? I mean, what is he bluffing here really. The flop hits us pretty hard with suited stuff and broadways, doesnt make much sense tu bluff here IMO.
J10d is the only bluff that comes to my mind, but that shoulded folded pre 100bb deep.
But C/R for value, there are many combos like QQ, AA, KQ.
I think having the Ad is actually not good, since it's less likely he's going for the flush draw, so what is he going for as a bluff?
I'd fold, yesss
Dec. 5, 2019 | 1:59 p.m.
I'm having a hard time coming up with a range here. Tell me if I'm wrong, but all the hands you gave villain should have folded to a squeeze if only 100bb deep right? Or 3bet de button. Except 1010., I guess you can play 1010 like this.
Dec. 4, 2019 | 2:48 p.m.
Rake is $0.84
Nov. 17, 2019 | 11:29 a.m.
UTG: $73.95 (Hero)
Could you point out the flaws on the analysis or if I am missing somehting? Thanks in advanced!
Note: Snowie would fold on the flop c/r, would fold on the turn bet and would fold on the river shove.
UTG wins and shows a pair of Queens.
UTG wins $31.15
Rake is $1.47
Nov. 13, 2019 | 12:19 p.m.
BB: $31.91 (Hero)
CO lost and shows three of a kind, Kings.
BB wins $64.32
Rake is $1.50
Nov. 13, 2019 | 11:48 a.m.
SB: $45.95 (Hero)
Nov. 13, 2019 | 11:06 a.m.
CO: $20.79 (Hero)
Oct. 31, 2019 | 2:04 p.m.
MP: $15.56 (Hero)
Oct. 31, 2019 | 1:47 p.m.
It's a size that acomplish several points. 1 start building the pot. 2 keep players with eq in and fold others. Induces monkey play, since it's a very dry flp and it's very unlikely that anyone have somth, so some people tend to raise.
Oct. 11, 2019 | 11:09 p.m.
SB: $5.30 (Hero)
1. Why would you fold here if villain is cbeting with all of his range.
2. What's wrong with calling and keep villans range wide letting him bet his bluffs.
3. And is this really a good spot for a c/r against a non capped range of villains? I also don't have a heart so i can bluff the turn if a heart hits so i doesn't look very good to me.