I don't like folding the turn here to his C/R
I'm going to make some assumptions of his range here: Value hands being 66-88 + T9s he would C/R for value which beat us. I also think he can flat things , 87,s 76s in his BB that would check raise this turn for value.
You still have AA, AK and KQ-K9 in your range which you could realistically fire on the turn which he now thinks he get some value out of - he doesn't want to check to you so you can check back rivers so it would be a sensible assumption he would try to get value from this part of your range.
Also he might be tuning things like 55, 65s and 98s into semibluffs against the non 2 pair Kxs' and the AA you still have your range - these hands still have decent equity when called but from his view could be too weak just to call a turn bet and check/fold rivers.
Against the range I feel he could check raise with; 55-88, T9s, 98s, 76s, 65s you have 50% equity. I think it is well worth a call on the turn and see what happens on the river.
Sept. 4, 2015 | 7:43 p.m.
Would you jam the turn if there wasn't the fish to act behind? I mean it's surely not important to be balanced against an abc reg?
May 11, 2014 | 12:19 p.m.
Oh sorry lol, I meant the hand at 24 min. And I'm really suprised the reg folded that river, I would probably jam the turn because there's a lot of rivers like that I would expect him to call on.
May 10, 2014 | 11:30 a.m.
Do you think the reg betting into 2 players here is a mistake? I think the turn hits their ranges pretty hard.
May 9, 2014 | 5:37 p.m.
Read em and reap is 80% crap filler, but the 20% is really good and well worth reading. I don't like Mike Caro's book much, I think the tells are quite weak. Joe Navarro has also done a series of videos from wsop academy on poker tells.
But I know a fair bit about it if you want some advice, It was the first thing I was interested in with poker .
April 28, 2014 | 5:59 p.m.
Ouch... If Liverpool throw it this year it's going to be so hard for them to get this close again with Manchester United, Man City and Chelsea - no doubt all spending silly amounts of money in the Summer.
Savage run guys :/ - PLO players must have some real mental toughness to take that sort of run and not tilt hard.
April 28, 2014 | 3:45 a.m.
Thanks for the insight :D - I might even move back down to 10nl for a bit - really really rusty, better to make mistakes at low levels :D What did you find were the major differences between levels? I haven't really noticed too much apart from people just raise dry board relentlessly at 25nl compared to 10nl.
April 27, 2014 | 1:38 a.m.
What's your guys worst run below EV?
Last summer I ran 45ish buy ins below EV - Wish i still had the graph but it's on a now dead laptop.
I've heard of some PLO regs having 100+ buy in down swings.. anyone come close to that?
April 27, 2014 | 12:54 a.m.
If we give villain the range:
TT+, AQ+, KJ+, JTs, QJ, we have ~34% equity vs this range.
This gives us the following based on pot size and we assumed the villain will stack off even when we hit (which is a pretty safe assumption at the stake level and at the SPR being so low):
(($7.50+$4.40)*.34) - ($2*.66) = ~$2.73 profit.
Even if villain check folds any straight or flush card for us we signal a profit of $1.23 dollars without any implied odds.
There are some reverse implied odds we have to consider but im way to tired to sit down and figure that out (6.15am here and no sleep yet) or i could be rambling so sorry if this sucks.
April 26, 2014 | 5:14 a.m.
Nice graph - I'm going to take my first real attempt at playing for a living, starting at 25nl to blow off the rust then hopefully move on up if my win rate is good. I hope to have a graph like this every month - well played sir/maddame :D
April 26, 2014 | 4:29 a.m.
I'm no pro but I will give my 2cents on 75o being too loose (at the majority of tables). I feel it is too loose as it doesn't perform well called by the SB and BB , it cannot stand up to any 3bet and it doesn't flop well (this is assuming these players have decent flat, 3bet ranges/ok players) - if you do flop a 7 or 5, these pairs alone are still hard to play on a lot of boards - we are only really happy on some very specific boards (pair+draw, 7 or 5 as top pair - which will be very rare) and find turns and rivers very hard to play with just a plain 7 or 5 a lot of the time.
Sticking to more suited hands (and a wider range of suited hands) in a BTN opening range, IMO, is a lot more profitable - these hands will often flop a lot more equity vs a range pairs + straight draws with backdoor flushes, flush draws etc - we can as a result play turn cards stronger and call/barrel vs a range with more confidence - and will will realise our equity at showdown a lot more with these hands.
April 20, 2014 | 4:55 a.m.
Keep plugging away and dont rush things - I've never been in a spot to play pro but I've had 3 friends who have been in a position to turn pro and they have all blew it trying to build up a roll overnight and thus playing games they weren't good enough to play and didn't have the right bank roll to deal with the variance at that level.
If you're treating it like a full time job (40hours a week) you will be making $560 a week so just a little over 7 weeks to make your 4k target. If you do this 48weeks of the year you will be on $26,880 a year - if that $14/h doesn't include rakeback this figure will be quite a bit higher.
Keep improving and keep playing - once your understanding of theory and mathematics reaches a certain level the majority of improvement is leak plugging. Stay disciplined and keep at it - you will be in a great posistion if your win rate is sustainable.
March 30, 2014 | 5:11 p.m.
I think it's a fold on this turn.
After being 3bet pre vs an unknown who we suspect is solid - i think we can assign pretty good range of hands to him here AAxx, KKxx, QQ with 2 big/suited + connected cards, 4 broadway, suited/ds run downs.
We lose to basically everything now or those hands have a tonne of equity vs our hands. I cannot see him leading with anything worse than 4 over cards + flush draw, which will often be better than ours. It looks so much like AA or KK possibly with the Ac/Kc in the hand. I feel we have such low equity on this turn card vs his range we just have to fold.
Calling here just sets up for way to many mistakes on the river - we basically cannot call many cards safely, and we could just be calling behind so often. If we had the A or K of clubs here we can play this spot a lot differently.
Personally im folding your hand pre as well to a 3bet - It's way to unconnected to be calling vs an unknown who we suspect is solid and will as a result probably be 3betting hands which have better connectivity and an equity edge vs this type of hand we have.
March 30, 2014 | 2:33 a.m.
advice from 20 yr old. whatever you do dont tell them. Only people who understand poker are people who play. They will see it as a vice. win or loose it has stigma.
This is the best piece of advice IMO - My parents has the same views as yours and just see it as reckless gambling and a "bad addiction".
March 30, 2014 | 1:25 a.m.
Why wouldn't you start checking back flops as an adjustment to someone who check raises board a lot and will then if checked back will just bet turns a lot? Checking back would allows us to realise so much more equity when we are completely air balling (if we assume the player is good enough to know that our range doesnt really hit these dry boards very often)?
We can cbet our value range here and just allow him to donk off large parts of his stack into it on these boards if he is going to raise relentlessly on these boards - he has to adjust if we have this read on him and we adjust accordingly.
So our range isn't capped as air when we check back we can include some of our weaker Axxx and our some of our 9xxx combos which we dont want to be playing a massive pot with but we want to get to showdown - if the villains will just 2 streets because we checked flop we can just call out the turn and river bets as he caps our range incorrectly and just puts us on air and try to bet us off it - we make value this way.
An argument could be made for cbetting the 9xxx in your range here for terms of protection and balance, there isnt many good turn cards for 9xxx unless holding a T987 type run down - which allows us to see more equity on a lot of turn cards, which for this reason could consider checking back and seeing a turn which gives us a potential pair + straight draw which holds up to aggression much better.
March 29, 2014 | 2:31 p.m.
I dont think you can rule out clubs completely but I do agree that having the Ac here is really nice. High suited rundowns or DS run downs will be calling 4bets, KKxx with a suit/DS - so a flush could be part of their range some of the time - having the Ac blocker here 3way is so nice though - being able to exclude the nut flush and more flush combos is nice as it improves our equity in general in this sport.
You cant really be wrong going all-in - and with the SPR being this low you need very little real equity, coupled with any fold equity as well and your hand here is pretty strong imo - I would defo be getting my money in.
Can someone explain the super small bet idea to me? I've seen Phil Galfond and Sam Lang do it in these very low SPR situations but haven't gave an explanation to why when they do it. Is it essentially to realise of any fold equity we may have/ allowing us to bluff in very low SPR spots while possibly folding? To induce jams with our value range? Or to give ourselves better odds when shoved on with our marginal holding? It's a new concept to me - I've never seen it used before Yesterday.
March 29, 2014 | 1:39 p.m.
Sorry about the wall of text. Been thinking over the hand for a while haha
March 29, 2014 | 5:14 a.m.
Firstly regarding your raise vs the initial raiser - I think it's pretty standard value 3bet preflop vs a lag player who will 4bet wide - you should definitely be pushing that equity edge and smashing as much money into the pot pre vs this type of player with all your AA** in my opinion. If he is just going to liberally 4bet you - tighten up that 3bet range (so your range smashes his) and get as much money in the pot as possible with that delicious equity edge and auto profit if he doesn't adapt. My experience at 10plo the average player wont adapt very well at all.
On the flop I would value bet bigger (if i was to bet) vs what seems to be a player inclined to click that call button and the agro player (we basically have the nuts here vs him) - I would want to get as much value from my hand as possible and if the CO wants to get clever he has to put more money in the middle to do so - The board doesn't hit yours or anyones range really so if he is really agro like you said he might want to try to get clever on this board and just bluff you off your TT-KK type hands - i think you can bet $1-$1.50 more on this board. I like a bigger best sizing as well for the entirety of your range which will include an overpair a large amount of the time. Checking may also be an option for your current hand as this board doesn't hit anyones range and we have a player we have determined as very agro in position - he may flop stab a lot when checked to and there isnt really any bad turn cards for our range vs his range in this spot and the player behind stands to have nothing to - any improvement to his hand would just potentially get us more value. We may also be able to check raise if the limp caller bets when check to - if he starts betting he stands to have something.
An argument can be made that a smaller bet size might be better for parts of your range- maybe if you feel you want to bluff at these boards a lot where it hits no ones range thus giving yourself a good price to bluff at it, keeping the bet size smaller could be a good idea (for the long run). At 10PLO i think it's reasonable to expect we can get away with betting different sizes with different parts of our range because the player pool is so weak on average and they are rarely looking into the difference between a 50% pot bet and a 75% pot bet. You also have to assume if you're taking a pop a lot that you will get a reasonable amount of folds - if one player is call inclined an another very agro doing this probably isnt too advisable to be bluffing at this board very often.
The turn card isnt very good for our range vs the callers range imo - only 2 bad turn cards in the deck so it's unfortunate - And this is where it gets a little tricky and I would need to do some work with pro poker tools before I could give you a definite answer. I dont think im ever leading to fold on this card. If you bet this turn I feel you cannot ever fold - he basically pot commits himself with the min raise - I would count that as a jam - and with the SPR on the turn, you dont need much equity to get it in here - you're probably going to have it - this I cant tell you for sure but I assumed his turn raise range here will look something a little like:
Boats: 86, 66, 44, 84,
Good trips: A8, K8,
Combo draws with a pair or trips: T98x, 987x, 543xhh, 8xxxhh,
Overpairs with hearts (QQ,JJ,TT - he didnt raise pre suggesting these may be hard to justify - we also have Ah blocker which means he doesn't have nut flush draw)
I feel it's a strange spot - when he raises his range is always going to have a lot or good equity vs our hand. Im not convinced checking really affects his range too much if he bets - i dont think you can check call either - you have to check Jam alot - there are a lot of ugly looking rivers you dont want to call a river bet on. Im almost certain you cannot check fold either and im also pretty sure you cannot bet fold with stacks at their sizes. As a result, looking at this I feel probably bet then getting it in is the best option.
March 29, 2014 | 5:13 a.m.
Yeah, interesting to see these figures.
Regarding that supernova slating people not giving action... there is not much fold equity to be had in the Microstakes (25plo) . Taking a very solid strategy just looking for good spots to value bet and making solid bluffs where people's ranges completely miss is the right way IMO.
Coupling the player pool and their average tendencies with those rake figures, I dont think you can argue against playing good solid, abc poker.
March 29, 2014 | 3:54 a.m.
Great video - thank you for making it. I would love to see more videos like this. General theory videos helps build the correct way of thinking and helps (me at least) get more from hand review videos as we understand what is going on better before looking at the correct situations to apply it and how to build on that theory in different spots in the review videos.
The video length for something like this is ideal as well - seemed very to the point and not rambling on which keeps it interesting.
March 29, 2014 | 2:21 a.m.
I'm a little confused to this hand - Are we in SB or BB? He will no be able to bet into us without us checking river if we are in SB - so we are check raising river? (Seems that the hand formatting may be wrong or i'm just seeing things).
Looking at the hand and making some assumptions at our position I agree with a lot of Mitch's analysis. I feel that the villains range boils down to straights, in rare cases a boat or a bluff - I might add he could thin value bet some Jacks thinking you may call with worse Jacks after checking back the turn, or trying to bluff/semi bluff you off the type of hand you have after you show weakness (you check to him 2 times on turn and river? - he could be calling flop with some sort of middling pair with backdoor draws etc thinking you are just stabbing at a dry board).
Personally I feel the turn check would allow him to turn any flop float into a bluff if he feels you are the type of player to Cbet your entire range on flop then check fold turns or just allow him a free show down. Could be a long shot but he might perceive that turn as a scare card but after you check to him on river he may feel he has the green light to fire river and take it down. (I guess this was your thinking when you check raised river?)
What is the player type of the villain? Are we stealing wide against him from SB? Is he playing back or adapting, do we have any history at all with this villain? I think we have to bet that turn card with the majority of our range in this spot (correct me if im wrong guys :D ) as I feel the villain will be making more mistakes against our range on all streets (calling with Jxxx against potential straights, Overpairs, sets etc) - can he really call with Jxxx (without draws etc) against that sort of action on potential bad turns like that (A,3,4,5 makes it hard for him to call again IMO unless he improves then there are just loads of potential rubbish rivers on top of that) , I take it if we are opening wide we will want to be bluffing flops and turns like this on boards like these with a large part of our range.