nmlfree's avatar


48 points

I found the theory behind leading at lower SPRs incredibly useful and something that I will start applying to my game. Would be very interested in a video series outlining some textures that we like to start leading for SPR<4 and which hand classes prefer leading. Essentially an expansion of the great in depth review of that hand. Great video as always!

Dec. 22, 2019 | 2:02 a.m.

The Ac7c48 on 3c4hTc board seems like a clear check/call at SPR 10?
Check raising range here with NFD seems like you would need a backdoor flush draw and/or gutshot to go with it?

June 13, 2019 | 10:31 p.m.

Not sure that their checking range is AA heavy... that's very assumptive. You should check their cbetting range OOP, if they're around 30% yeah they might use those hands as a XC... but against someone who cbets 50%+ u should just auto-stab ANY hand when checked to and print money. Usually since u have similar range , OOP shouldn't bet very often , but if they do happen to have a high cbetting range, it means that you should punish their checking range.

So don't pay off too much vs B-B-B line ( you can def float twice and see how they react, most people fall either in Bet Once and Give up or Bet Twice and Give up) but i'm kind of reluctant of giving that advice as you can easily spew.

So instead i recommend you the easy implementation of bet when checked too , especially if vs high cbettors. Also keep your stab sizing and the smaller size ( 50% or lower).

Dec. 15, 2016 | 6:48 p.m.

I don't think that ur winrate of 9bb/100 is entirely explained by your poor winrate when calling , it should be a small issue. But since you want help in that area i'm gonna refer to that.

22% is ok for someone who can play postflop but it seems you're not on that level at all so u should play like the previous poster w a 13%-15% VPIP. You can drop the low rundowns from your range or marginal hands .

Just call with good A hi suits hands, and good JJ-KK ( don't call JJ64$ss , but call the JJ98$ss or something around that strenght)

8% 3b is def bad vs UTG as opening ranges are too tight. You should only 3b around 4% there and only widen up vs fishes who have wide utg ranges ( like 30%+ then ur 8% might be fine, but vs 15% your 8% 3b is burning money).

Your W$SD is extremely low so you're probably paying off way too often in bad spots.
As a quick tip, i can just say that if you always fold on river flushing cards wo the NF u would probably do just much better . So with that in mind , avoid playing playing hands that will not make the NF unless u have a good argument to ( ie the pairs i mention which have set potential) .


Dec. 15, 2016 | 10:04 a.m.

No you cannot fold because villain can have dominated value in his range , like Q4,74 or some people can VB A4 on a blank. So you either XC turn and XC river. Or XR turn and stack off.

Ur sizing sucks though , u should make it more 2k instead of potting.

Also ur call pre is kind of terrible.

Dec. 15, 2016 | 9:54 a.m.

I think it's very complex situation so you won't get many answers as it's hard to model .

I just want to remark that you might be focusing too much on the dangler and not enough on the range domination.

Your hand is borderline cause it shares a lot of cards with the ranges you assigned. So the fact that their ranges have KK or AKxx$ds make this close, not the dangler.

For ex if you have JT95$ds w a dangler, i think you will see a better eq 3W and even much better with a crappy disconnected ds hands like Q764$ds.

So after assigning reasonable ranges to villain according to your reads, just play around inputting hands and check which ones play the best in that scenario.

With your reads, i might fold this one and be more happy to call w a lower card hands but i'm just guessing, don't take my word on that.

Feb. 10, 2016 | 5:28 a.m.

4b is good, being ds you're pushing eq vs their ranges if your read is accurate. Flop is std too . WP

Feb. 10, 2016 | 5:20 a.m.

I don't know if you're just looking for the maths behind it or just the straight answer w a software but www.propokertools.com will answer this precisely. Just input the ranges, board and use the count feature.

Feb. 9, 2016 | 1:49 a.m.

I think this is lousy logic to say " i'm deep , so i 3b any ace suited in my range to put pressure on him. " This is not holdem where you benefit from 3 betting weaker hands in your range because of your fold equity preflop . This is PLO where you almost never got a fold preflop, and where you benefit from 3 betting the best hands in your range and calling the rest.
Yes, it might be profitable to 3 bet A rag but it doesn't mean it's better than calling.

I also think you way overestimate how often you hit that river.

If you're calling the turn w

(2 pairs w K, Wraps,FD+Str8 draw, NFD) without KK and TT ( i assume they mostly 3b on turn)

You end up the river w 12% of nuts straight but if you bluff every hand weaker than TP you have air 26.79%

So if you're not selective with your bluffs and bluff every time you "can't give up" , villain will just print money with his line which i like.

Even if you stick to bluffing anything weaker than a pair of T ( despite not really having showdown value with it) you will still have a 12% value for 13,84% of bluffs so you're very far from the 6-5% bluff you should aim for depending on your sizing.

So if a J or 9 hit the river, where multiple str8 draw complete, then you have an excellent spot to bluff, but on that river 5 where you're repping only 1 very rare value hand, u will just burn money by bluffing systematically this type of hands.

I would always call in villain's shoes because i think people way overestimate how often they "have it " and end up way overbluffing.

Feb. 9, 2016 | 12:27 a.m.

I think turn check is good. Raising river seems spewy. On the river I don't mind calling Vs unknown and fold if you have a read.

Feb. 8, 2016 | 8:03 a.m.

  1. No because of blocker effect. Despite aces up and a baby flush both beating your bluffing range, villain will be more inclined to call w a flush than 2 pairs . I don't think it's a profitable VB

  2. I don't think we need to bluff this combo given that we beat now a ton of aces up and set. I think bluffing mid to high flush blocker which doesn't beat AJ is a fine bluffing candidate.
    It seems you will have plenty enough since u 3 bet ss rundowns. I am personally not fond of ur 3 bet pre so thinking about my own range which doesn't have many single suited hands, i would have to start to pick up some Jx .

Feb. 8, 2016 | 2:40 a.m.

I don't like pre, you have better candidates to 3bet imo.

Flop is fine, specially cause you very deep and villain cannot x/r at a very high freq. I don't mind checking some % too.

Turn is good bet and call , gain a lot of eq and implied .

River is not an ideal candidate bluff w you holding 3 diamonds + a str8 draw . But having no Showdown Value makes it a bluff sometimes at some frequency, however bluffing every combo of missed dd is bad imo.

Feb. 7, 2016 | 10:07 p.m.

I just use a std size w my range but i don't have big arguments for it.
Can lose value in this spot, but gives me good risk/reward when i'm bluffing.
I agree though that this board should favors my range and it would benefit from a bigger sizing with my whole range.

Feb. 6, 2016 | 6:55 a.m.

Raise is def fine on the flop, ur BB range should hit this flop much harder than his UTG range ( Leading is a strong option also). Turn betting is std also and on the river you have to bluff sometimes but if we bet every missed combo draw by the river it's easy to get overboard and end up overbluffing so you should give up sometimes.

Feb. 6, 2016 | 2:52 a.m.

I don't think raising flop is mandatory, would play both strategies at some freq.

I like the river check, blocking most 2 pairs and not blocking any FD, we're unlikely to get paid off unless it's some lower set. In PLO , a pair in that spot is not really a SD value hand so i disagree that villain will never bluff a one pair hand hand.

I also disagree with villain vbet worse vs your line, but yes a call is mandatory as you block most combinations which can showdown and don't block any spades so you couldn't do anything different on the river imo.

Feb. 6, 2016 | 2:50 a.m.

I think it can go both ways on the flop, i don't mind calling at all, you don't push that much eq on the flop vs his continuing range when you shove and i'd rather see safe/improving turn as you did.

Feb. 6, 2016 | 2:42 a.m.

I prefer to shove flop, your hand has poor showdown value but plenty of equity on the flop. It's nice to fold out A hi or gutshot type hands which have plenty of eq vs your hand.
It's not a fist pump jam since you will occasionally run into hands that crush you with the over flush but i still prefer it to calling. I think Kx w a FD makes a better candidate to put into your calling range .

Feb. 4, 2016 | 7:16 p.m.

Nice vid

At 25:00

is there no 66,55 in your x/r range?

Feb. 3, 2016 | 12:30 p.m.

Comment | nmlfree commented on SB vs BB bluff

I think this is one of the best candidates to cbet on the flop, ur barrel potential is huge.

Your turn bet is ok in the sense that you will probably get enough folds but you must not fall into the trap thinking " he will fold 43% of the time then i bet", you must also consider the EV of checking back which in this case is not great, but also non 0.

It think beside the flop , your turn and river bets are just too borderline... they might return some slight EV in a vacuum , but if you do so with every hand in your range that is slightly +EV then you end up betting pretty much your whole range with that justification, resulting in a poor range.

So i'm not really sure in what category your hand falls on the turn to be honest, you still might have played it right, but you should construct a betting range on the turn and see if that combo is best for your turn range.

River is ok as played, but this is not a play i would make as i don't think these small face up sizings are good for my range. I would probably bet just closer to pot with my value bets and my bluffs , but since it's plo10, i don't mind you have exploitative sizings just to exploit the population. So what i mean, is that your sizing is ok as long as you don't do it with your big flushes, and be conscious that you're extremely unbalanced but you have a good reason to do it.

Feb. 3, 2016 | 11:22 a.m.

Consider fold? What?
Doesn't make it any sense, if your hand is part of villain value betting range, you have a no brainer call and he could VB even worse hands. I don't see any need to develop the discussion here.

Feb. 1, 2016 | 11:35 p.m.

Ur winrates are suboptimal in every position, i will treat them by block.

EP-CO: It's normal to have winrate range 10 to 20bb/100 there. Ur VPIP and PFR seem fine for those positions. Your probable leak is just you stationing in spots you shouldn't

BTN : Winrate not so bad, could be variance, u could reach 40-50bb/100 there w good play. One big leak i will refer later is your fold to 3bet ( i don't have stat, but i have you call 3bet stat, which is way too low OTB)

SB: -59 bb/100 is pretty bad. You would perform better by folding every hand. This is not what i recommend ofc, but it reveals one of your main leaks : Very little 3B out of the blinds. You should go crazy everytime u see an open > 40% in your HUD and design a good 3 betting range. This will take time to implement, you will make many mistakes, but you should make huge improvement there by 3 betting a lot more OOPs. Check any PLO vid available to you or some forums to know how to design it.

BB: This time your winrate is not good but not so bad either ( folding would mean -100bb/100 and you make -50bb/100 which is meh ). This is the hardest winrate to improve cause it involves playing a high VPIP and be very used to play a weak range OOP. I even struggle with it, so for now just use the same SB advice to 3 bet more of the blinds.

Ok, now the 3 big things to Fix in your game

1) Be less station, fold more vs cbet on every street for a starter. You have actually 45/35/50 per street. I would aim for 55/45/70. Don't take my number as optimal, they are not optimal at all and very exploitable by the river, but taking into accounts that your facing a lot of MW pots and people who don't bluff optimally, your numbers are way too spewy. They would only be fine like 3 handed vs elite opposition but no way at 6max microstakes vs passive fish who rarely bluff. Since this your major leak , i propose your Color CODE and put NOTE to every people unlikely to bluff based on his stats and Remind Yourself to Trust the NOTE/COLOR you put. This main adjustment should produce the biggest switch in your winrate : Not paying off people who don't even enough bluffs in their range. I cannot teach you to hand read, but try to filter every "River Call" you made and justify w maths or hand reading how bad/good they were.

2) Fold less to 3B. I'm not a believer in 0% fold to 3 bets which a lot of player seem to do, but i do believe that folding more than 20% is a big leak. You seem to be fine in EP/MP w your freq cause you play tight enough, but OTB you're folding way too many hands which shouldn't be. Specially at micro where people play so face-up ranges most of the times. For starters, try to never fold any hand except ones who contains A or high pair. When u will comfortable with this, u can add some of these hands w more experience. Ur VPIP otb is quite low, so imagine you steal pretty tight, so in theory almost all your range coud call a 3B

3) 3B a lot more OOP vs BTN stealers, check articles or vid for this.

That's it for now. I think i rank the leaks by impact of bb/100

Feb. 1, 2016 | 12:48 p.m.

At 14:30 , when you X/R A2 :

1) What would you value X/R range looks like? What is the weakest hand you would XR for value?
2) From this range, which hands are the most high frequency and which are the lowest freq ( in terms of the amount of times you choose to XR them)? Am i right assuming you have mixed frequencies w some combos ( ie you lead sometimes and X/R sometimes) ?
For ex 77 and K7 seem to be natural X/R's but i don't know what kind of frequency i would use w 44 or K2 for ex, i'd like you to expand on it if possible.

Good vid, waiting for part 2.

Feb. 1, 2016 | 10:35 a.m.

Bet/Folding this hand sucks, you'll get jammed on with a lot of draws.
You will improve very often, you have 2 pairs and a backdoor flush draw. You have much better candidates to bet/fold.

Call turn is good. River depends a lot on your opponent, i could find a call there against many opponents, specially since you don't block any spades.

Feb. 1, 2016 | 5:02 a.m.

You're not providing much useful stats. Better post positional stats with more info.

You're W$SD is pretty low if i read it right (47%) and your fold to cbet flop/turn/river are super low too.

So your main leak is probably that you call down way too much and your red line shows me the same tendency. My guess is that you just not let anyone bluff you and try too hard hero-calling people who never bluff.

Feb. 1, 2016 | 3:21 a.m.

Shoving is not an option, even if he calls light w 2 pairs , you will run into a str8 around 25% to 32% depending on how you design his turn calling range.

I used this range for turn calling :

NFD, 3NFD> + SD, any FD w OE or Wrap and 2 pairs w a J, Naked WR and finally i add (66,44) 30% of the time.

So when you combine your overall eq vs his calling range, this results in around 30% equity when you bet, so not enough to value.

So all is left is XC or XF.

If he's the type to bluff any busted draws, then you would have to call cause according to my sim, Villain will have a hand weaker than TP 29% of the time and weaker than Jx 24.69% of the time. ( His VBs are mainly str8 for 30.54% and we reach 32.7% if we add some KK to his value range)

However, i think many people shy away from bluffing river if they hold 2 diamonds for blocker effects, so it all depends how you perceive him to play that part of his range.
Roughly he has 30% of value for 30% of potential bluffs, so if you think he bluffs those diamonds more than half the time, you have a call. If he bluffs way less than 50% w those combos ( less than 45% to be more precise given the pot odds ) , then you have a fold which i believe would be the case against most opponents.

Jan. 31, 2016 | 11:55 p.m.

Spot 1

No, you have a lot of equity vs their folding ranges, so why not see a free card. You don't really need that much protection. Yes, bad 3x,2x,4x which would fold to your bet can improve to 2 pairs and beat you, but retaining their whole range always allow you to induce bluffs and suck out where you're behind.
Also you can call any turn with your hand, you're very likely to see the river.

Spot 2

I think you underestimate your FE. If villain is aggro and will bet v often, betting has the benefit to accomplish the same result along some FE.

It's a good candidate to 3 barrel cause you don't block diamonds so your bluff is more likely to succeed.

Jan. 29, 2016 | 12:26 p.m.

Post | nmlfree posted in Chatter: Vids not working today

When i put watch Video, the screen remains black like this :


This happened only today ,was working fine in the past.

I haven't tried reset the cookies, but i did try different browsers and different devices and same result. However some people seem able to watch the vids since they are new comments.

What could this be?


Jan. 26, 2016 | 9:40 p.m.

I haven't studied the alternative of "only donk or xc " but i've studied a little bit about not having a x/r range in no limit holdem on certain boards with a solver. When the board was poor of our range the cost of not having a X/R was very small ( like 5bb/100). However in a board like 872fd where our combo draws benefit so much from a X/R, then the cost was huge ( in the order of 30bb/100 if i recall right). In PLO where we have a wider variety of huge draws and more frequency of sets, i suspect ( cannot prove it), the cost might be even higher.

Your idea is interesting but my gut feeling tells me that it should only works on very limited boards. You basically cannot start donking flops where you're at a range disadvantage, and as the preflop caller you're usually in that position in most flops.
So for ex on 872fd calling from the blinds, mostly donking could work pretty well.
On QT5r , mostly leading would be bad, and mostly x/c would be pretty bad as you have a very big incentive to either semibluffs w our monsters wraps or get more money in w our TT,QQ,55 vs people who will peel any TP or any OE>.

Also from an exploitative point of view, people make so many cbetting mistakes that XR makes the most EV vs them.

Jan. 26, 2016 | 9:30 p.m.

1) limping and calling is a lot better in PLO than in NLHE, because equities of hands run closer and your hand is not so defined if u limp a bunch of different stuff. So you're right, isolating weak hands is a big no no and bleed money spots. Raise premium hands and limp along with weaker ones.

2) About them leading when flush hits, i don't have experience at microstakes, but this is usually not a common bluff line. The problem with that line in HU pots is that it leaves your checking range pretty weak, so instead of focusing on "are there exploiting me? should i defend more often" which is highly unlikely , you instead focus on exploiting their checking range!

If someone leads their strong flushes to you, then you have room to 3 barrel very weak hands.
Of course there is no need to turn your 2 pairs into a bluff, but if you have a str8 draw which retains it's equity vs his range or a one pair or no pair hand w a high blocker flush, you will have a good spot to barrel turn and river.

So be more aggressive with these kind of hands.

Now if they only lead on MW pots, then you have nothing to worry about cause the other players in the pot should "protect" you from being bluffed : in other words, everyone else in the pot is in charge to keep honest the guy who is leading. So in that case you safely fold your 2 pairs cause it would be too aggressive and unprofitable for the guy to lead air vs multiple players ( leading the nutblocker as a bluff might be ok in higher stake games but this is probably spewy at microstakes if the assumption that nobody ever fold the 2nd or 3rd nut flush is correct)

If they lead too much their mid-strength flushes, they will end up losing too much when you hold the NF and since you raise premium hands, you should hit those NF more often than they do, so your range should protect you.

Jan. 25, 2016 | 9:35 p.m.

I would X/R your hand vs a btn cbetting sometimes, but vs an UTG range or here a BB isolating range, i think it's bad. Vs tight ranges, you run too often into aces . Just think in terms of percentaages.
Let's says he raises his top 2% of aces. Usually iso ranges from BB are quit tight, like 10%. So you u block his AA by having A8 so u divide his combo by 2 i believe, so u will still run into aces 10% of the time which is a lot.
So when PFR cbets a texture very good for his range, it's usually a bad idea to develop a X/R range w medium strength hands. Usually BTN openers overestimate their range advantage on that spot by saying "I have AA and SB cannot have it" , but it's only 2,5% out of a 50%, so a small part of his range and they end up having way too many bluffs, so it's a spot where we can widen our value range and add some x/r bluffs very effectively. But vs 25% or tighter ranges, you should play cautiously now w top 2 pr on an A hi board.

I think your read "I thought that since hes betting so small it seems very likely he will just fold" requires more sample size because this would be a pretty std bet size in my games. But if you read it as weak ( folding to a X/R most of the time), i don't see the need to protect your hand in that case.

About him not calling any worse 2 pairs i disagree, villain has to defend any A7,A3 to your line which is why i would keep betting turn for value/protection, if he doesn't continue w those hands, he's pretty much under defending a lot and his side cards should give him enough equity to see the river vs your range.

Jan. 25, 2016 | 5:36 a.m.

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