tszis

Great vid. 2 questions.

1) Could you explain why you emphasized check raising TOP sets, and not middle and bottom sets?

This goes against the oft cited notion that middle and bottom sets should be played faster than top set, as they don't block villain's top pair.

I imagine one of the benefits of check raising top sets while flatting mid & bottom sets is that villain may check back the turn with 2nd and 3rd pair, while she is more likely to barrel top pair. Is that the reason? It feels relatively infrequent compared to the top pair vs set case.

Curious if you arrived at this conclusion because your range contains less lower pairs than higher pairs. That is, we check raise TT set more than 44 set on an absolute basis just because our range has twice as many TT than 44 (from your range on @ 2:51).

2) Have you found any good heuristic on kicker threshold for check raising top pair. I usually see Ax and Kx. What kind of situations do we go below K kicker in a meaningful frequency? Also, when do we NOT want to check raise top pair?

Thanks

Small pockets = reverse implied odds. Meaning if you hit, you might be paying out a big pot to higher sets. Similar idea with non-nut draws.

PF fold as noted.

I would definitely overjam flop and put his whole stack at risk. We can afford it. You gain value by pushing out KQ, AQ, AK, and maybe weak jacks, and Tx.
If villain checked, I would have bet 6000 to set up a turn shove.

As played, I would check the turn.
QQ+ and Jx are not folding. Only value gained are missed Ax and Tx folding. We also keep dominated draws in.

More precisely, it should read "every street is a new start".
It simply means that you are not bound to do anything you don't want to.

Just because villain is a station doesn't mean we should over-adjust and become spewy. Once you become cognizant of your leak, you are given the chance to self correct when it's your chance to act (and make the max EV decision).

I'd def check the flop and pot turn if checked around (higher sets would have bet).
If someone pots flop then it's a tough spot. It would be player driven. Against TAGs I would lean toward folding (we're handcuffed and can't blow pot up if ahead), against LAGs and unknowns I would call and evaluate turn. Avoid win a little or lose a lot situations.

Mid, all day. Else too top heavy.

Pre squeeze I'd make it at least 2400. This is a blocker squeeze, we're happy to take it down right here. Would you really raise QQ+ to just 2000?

Flop bet I think is fine; you are saying "I have AK and this is not a very wet flop"
Turn I'd bet more. Would we really play non-A this way? In fact, I'd shove to look like we picked up draws (broadway straight/flush draw type hands), which is the part of our range that villain can beat. This is a bit of a two-way bet, in that we shut out drawing hands and get more dominated Ax to call.

River we can't fold a 4-to-1 price. Basically just having AK in his range alone makes this a call.

Tie (AJ) = 4 combos
Win (AK, A4s) = 8 + 2 = 10 combos
Lose (AQ, 44, JJ, KT of spades) = 6 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 11 combos [I can't see QJ]

With that said, if his 4B # is high and indicate an AK auto-shove, we can dial down chance of AK quiet a bit and possibly find a fold.

1) Pre I would raise to 1250 since you are OOP, and to set up a slightly larger than pot flop shove (to look like AK). Don't deny villain a chance to shove PF I would always 4B, unless there's history.
2) Tough spot. I'd lean toward folding as played. I'd check the flop here and lead turn + river for 1/4 to 1/3 pot. Flop is quite dry; you'd play AK the same way. He has lots of Ax in his range, we run into exactly trouble spot like these if we just go bet the flop, where you essentially turn KK into a bluff catcher. You want to keep his pockets in play.

Reasons to call
- If he had an A, turn bet makes more sense than river bet. Why wait until a scare card come to shove?

Reasons to fold
- Don't think he'd turn pockets into bluff. Unless he is a light flop floater, he's repping suited A wheel (A3, A4)
- Your TAG read would also advise a fold

I think you played it fine. Definitely opens unless you table is out of line / ICM-blind (which they may be, since it's a $65 live tourney). I would proceed carefully from there. Your line is fine. Don't out level yourself.

Don't make the mistake with a black-or-white mentality.
Keep your options open and adjust as you go. Don't shove now... play the flop.

If you agree with that logic, taking the job is clearly the option.

It's a lot easier to find a job later when you have a few years under your belt.
But if you never started in the first place, you'll be competing against fresh graduates who are more hungry than you. If you were an employer, who would you hire? A failed "gambler" (in their view) who never worked or a fresh grad? But if you worked, and poker picked up again, people would be more understanding if you take a few years off to try it out.

You have the rest of your life to play. why rush in just to play the small stakes? Be honest to yourself - are you in it for money, freedom, or you just want to avoid the daily grind.

If your thought is that this is your passion, and it's not working if you love it... etc. I recommend that you read this: http://calnewport.com/blog/2010/10/16/the-passion-trap-how-the-search-for-your-lifes-work-is-making-your-working-life-miserable/

If you can make it as a poker pro, you can probably make it in other fields... if you want to.

I hear you. This usually helps me.

1) Imagine if that player is gone and everyone played "normal".
2) That game is clearly not as juicy.
3) Take a deep breath (this step is important).
4) Every hand is a new start.

You should never play with scared money. Not fun and not profitable.

Now let's run some #s.

A) Immediate take down = 13k + 6k + 3k + 9k = +31k
B) Called and win = 31k + 107k = +138k
C) Called and lose = -117k

Against a loose 12% calling range of {22+, AT+, KQ} you have 39% equity.
If he opens 16%...
[4/16 * A] + (12/16) * [.39 * B + .61 * C] = -5413

If he opens 20%...
[8/20 * A] + (12/20) * [.39 * B + .61 * C] = +1870

It's close either way.
If you think he folds or opens more than stated then it's a push. But now I have to revise my opinion to fold.

I'd fold. Given lack of strong read, I'd defer to (read-neutral) ICM type ideas.

If he's shoving light here you can probably find other spots. I'd rather chip up by applying bubble pressure. I can see rando aggros playing AK this way, but not KQ, KJ, which is where you have value. Against {AQ+, TT+}, the equity is not there.

I often limp in early stages and in early/mid positions. Rarely in mid stages. And almost never in late stages.

Main reason I'd limp is if raising serves little purpose.

Two common reasons: if I'm in early position and table loves flatting (so we can play smaller pot OOP), or if I strongly expect a 3B iso coming and I have a multi-way hand (pockets, suited A). I also want to avoid raising premiums early just to have a few ppl flat behind you, and not knowing how to continue.

I balance this by also limping with my strong hand. If a raise comes behind me, and especially if there are cold callers, I can put in a big 3B. I do this with a polarized range (AK+, KK+) mixed in occasionally with hands that flop well (e.g., NOT low to mid pockets). You can be heavier on the bluff side since people will give you lots of credit. Personally I find a lot of fit-or-fold once villain flats our 3B.

Call. you beat far more than 25% of his range.
Even if it's close, I think it makes sense to lean on calling side for info and image during early stages.

Against randos, I'd think straights and FHs would have a slight timing read and bigger size. So I'd weigh those a bit less. KQ and AT are less likely since you have KT blockers.

Even with tight flop continuation range, and zero river bluff plus not discounting from reads, you're good still almost ~1/3 of the time.

{AJ, KJ, QJ, TJ, J9} + {KQ, AT} = 8+6+8+4+6 + 12+8 = 52
{Q9, 89} = 12+12 = 24