It sucks a lot because it's extremely high variance but this is an edge you CANNOT afford to pass up in any game, bar one in which the villains are all extremely easy to manipulate and read. I've never come across a game so easy to manipulate and read that I would pass up this edge. Just done a bunch of sims and its extremely difficult to have this be -EV to jam.
Folding the nuts is a thing you have to do from time to time in PLO but you have to be very confident in your reads. It is often a bigger mistake to pass a big equity edge than it is to call and subject yourself to variance.
March 27, 2014 | 10:17 p.m.
A Q97ss board is different from a 742ss board in that we're up against bare made hands a lot more. So the fact that the board is so co-ordinated is a reason to raise now - our hand isn't quite as disguised as we'd like it to be, as we have the top of a made-hand-calling range that does tend to pot-control on drawy boards, and hands that would pay us off on the turn when we boat up are hands that are likely to put good $ into the pot here and now. A flush or straight-completing card on the turn allows bare Q9 or 99 to c/f; also, hands like top two or a set with a singular draw, against which we're in good shape, will stack off now, or make us pay to draw to boat up on the turn, where the equity we make by forcing them to stack off on turn blanks (not that common) doesn't make up for the lost value here. Lastly, villain is more likely to have a made hand than a draw when he leads into the field, and when he does have a draw we can potentially make him fold multiway but non-nutty draws that are in good shape against this hand but in bad shape against our range.
Turn is a check. We simply can't get enough hands to fold, we're blocking some of our equity when called and we're not pricing villain in to call with his sets when he thinks we're on a flush or straight.
River is always a fold even if we're surprised to be facing a jam.
March 27, 2014 | 10:04 p.m.
As you said, live people set-mine more than they should, so we've got worse equity when we do get it in. We can also generally rely on them to play relatively straightforwardly, betting or raising their sets when they don't have the last aggressor to act behind them. When we get our money in multiway, our equity is awful, so I like checking to see what the field does. If we're faced with one small bet, we can peel with a view to evaluating turns, likely checking most cards other than J/T of s/c. Having two queens in our hand also blocks some of the combo pair + gs or inside wrap hands we're in good shape against.