most people prob not bluffing much here given ip is uncapped and has Tx quite often, but I dont think IP has Tx often enough to just call Tx. If thats the case OOP betsize would be quite bad. Like I said I didnt sim the hand, just analyzed with FZ and folding 8x here is overfolding by alot.
May 7, 2020 | 4:20 p.m.
hand has decent equity vs bluff range but drwaing almost dead vs value range. Also you dont block value but block some bluffs. yeah I would fold here.
May 7, 2020 | 11:43 a.m.
very weird spot because villain should always be cbetting. I like turn bet because v prob wont bet and we prob have the best hand. River you can go a bit bigger but seems fine(you are trying to get called by AK and random 9x). Once he shoves he is saying he has QQ+. We never have blockers to his value that arent already choping vs the bottom of his value range(QQ) and you prob dont have that many 22-55 so this end just ends up as a 0 ev call/fold mix. You should try to make a read in this spot (hud stats, notes etc).
May 7, 2020 | 11:17 a.m.
Im saying that 3 betting flop is nonsense from a gto/solver pov. Ofc from an explo pov anything can be a good play. I wont run a sim because HU ranges are very wide and would take too long on my pc but if you a run a sim here and solve down to a small dev% treshold you'll see that theres no 3betting the flop(as long as the tree allows IP to get all in on later streets without the need to 3 bet flop)
May 7, 2020 | 10:58 a.m.
Im calling because its +ev unless BB is super nit.
vs cbet range of 99+ and flush draws we have about 43% equity and if villain goes TT+ and flush draw we have 34% equity. This equity is not considering the other players btw. Considering the other 2 players have wide ranges of 22-99, suited connectors, suited broadways and suited Ax(best case scenario for us) we have about 20% equity. Its just a fold. Also BB is probably supposed to be checking range.
May 7, 2020 | 10:54 a.m.
Why are you 4 betting the flop? Villain's play is very bad(is he a reg?). Villain should never 3bet flop. Assuming villain is playing a balanced flop 3 betting strat(lol), is your hand maximizing ev against any of villains combos by re raising instead of calling? I mean he is saying he has A7+ or a bluff right?
May 6, 2020 | 8:35 p.m.
No way you can fold this if you are betting range or close to range on flop. However from an exploitative pov folding could be good ofc. The reason you cant fold river is that you simply dont have enough Tx to call with. 87 is good to call river because villain is never bluffing with 8x so your hand beats every bluff and unblock bluffs pretty well. On the turn i think its also a call because you dominate 7x bluffs from villain. Also on turn I dont think you should be folding 22-77 because these hands have decent equity vs bluffs and have the possibility to beat Tx. I didnt sim any of this just analyzed with flopzilla btw
May 6, 2020 | 8:29 p.m.
villian should be pretty polar on turn so dont understand the XR. Its not like hes betting 1/3 pot. He is basically already repping Kx+.I think just XC turn or keep betting but XC by actually be better because vs his Kx its kind of indifferent wethet we bet or XC but its better to call vs his 78, unpaired Qx and Jx as we are kind of geting value from hands that are weaker and that would have to fold vs bet.
April 28, 2020 | 3:29 p.m.
instead of thinking that way, you could in which spot decide which hand will be the treshold for value betting and which hand will be the treshold for bluffing(assuming you are betting polarized). The bet size depends on how wide you are value betting but doesnt change the ev of the strat that much. basically when protection isnt important you can go bigger but not so big that villain can defend only nuttish hands.
April 28, 2020 | 3:20 p.m.
If they are cbetting more often than they should you adjust by lowering your treshold hand for playing for stacks in the cbet, XR line. This is because IP has to call down weaker hands to prevent you from making money by XR any 2. This wouldnt be the case if they cbetted a stronger more optimal range.
April 28, 2020 | 3:03 p.m.
this is terrible advice. If someone is overcbetting you have less motivation to start donking. Donk betting would actually be a conter vs someone under c betting
April 27, 2020 | 10:47 a.m.
You arent doing anything wrong its just that crev uses montecarlo for ev calulation. Increase the number of trials ran by the program. You can do this where i says math engine or something on the upper part of the software.
March 31, 2020 | 4:43 p.m.
UTG+1: 21,178 (Hero)