This is brilliant. Seriously. I stop myself in mid thought and tell myself, "I need to know." I need to listen to my ration and fold and be ok with not knowing "for sure" if I'm right about their exact two cards. Respect their ability more and tip the cap if they effectively bluffed me off a winner. I'm so into marginal spots, though. Gotta fix this leak fast.
Sept. 22, 2019 | 11:31 p.m.
I'm posting this because I just had a big realization that I wanted to try and air out. I will often act super fast and against my better judgment in big bet/big pot situations (think river bet raises & river check raises), basically overcalling. My realization is that I have a much bigger fear of being wrong about being bluffed (lying to me) than I do being wrong about the other person betting for value (telling me the truth). Either that or the opposite, I have too much ego and want to punish somebody for trying to bluff me.
My best guess is that it's a combination of both, and I'm hoping that airing this out will take this conversation out of my head during these spots and allow me to focus on the spot itself, on ranges, textures, opponent tendencies, and so on.
I think what I do is this: I'll just cut off my thought process and say to myself, "stop thinking and just call or you won't get any sleep tonight. If you don't call you'll never know for sure if you are right or wrong." I'm sure I'm not the only one who's doing this but I feel like the general population overfolds in these spots. I'd love to hear feedback from either camp and hopefully we can find a way to all play more optimal poker (but at different tables of course).
Sept. 22, 2019 | 7:41 p.m.
Utg +2 loose passive (spot) opens $75
Lojack good pro, tight aggressive calls
Highjack old man, tight aggressive calls
Hero in cutoff (5K effective), fairly active but tight aggressive image 3B to $350 KQcc
Btn calls (I'm blanking on who this was)
BB well known pro, very solid image, not bullying table, playing a strong range, 4bets $1000
folds around to me, take about 30 seconds, consider shoving, BB and Btn have me covered... feel like Btn would have 4bet any premiums so not too worried about him coming over the top with a back raise. Think BB range could include all suited Ax in this spot, 99+, all AKoff, possibly AQoff... I'm getting a good price ($650 with $1935 in middle) on a call and like I said already, not too worried about Btn coming over top. I call, Btn folds.
Flop ($2585) 10h8h6c
Villian leads $1100
I take about 30-45 sec and shove a little more than 4K.. thinking all Ax that aren't hearts will fold.. I think all A10 will fold.. 99 fold and JJ maybe, AhKx fold.... A6hh and AJhh+ will call.. QQ+ calls... obviously 88 and 1010 call...
I also feel like my range is very strong here... 88, 1010, QQ+, and AQhh+
Any thoughts? To those of you that are good at combinatorics or have pio can you tell me if my assumptions are good.. is my line good? Do I put villain on too wide of a range pre?
Sept. 17, 2017 | 7:02 p.m.
Thanks for the response. Yeah it's suicide to flat and then fold when you miss the flop.. gotta see the equity to the river. There are several 77-99, and even AQ, AJ that we aren't in a terrible spot against.
Folding is out of the question too. K10 is about 35% against a 12% opening range, which is much tighter than Hijack should be opening..
Anyways, it just always feels like there might be a reason to do something different on our bust out hands. Obviously villain had AA
Aug. 9, 2017 | 1:37 a.m.
Three hands into a new table and haven't played yet with villain. He has 20-30bb, I have 7bb.
Open from hijack to 50k,
Folds to me in BB. Look down at K10off.
What is the correct play? Do I flat or shove?
Thanks for any and all thoughts!
Aug. 7, 2017 | 8:52 p.m.
I think bet folding the turn would be a descent line, saving me money in this exact situation. But I'm fairly convinced here that I'm either ahead, like he has AQ, 99-JJ, Axdd, or behind AA, QQ, AK, KQ, while I'm blocking KK. I'm not finding many 2's in his pre flop 3-bet range so I'm not too worried about that. So betting turn only gets called by better or folds out all those worse hands that might bluff river. My plan was to reevaluate on river. I would fold to a d, A or Q When it comes a third 2 I feel like I catch up or am still ahead of the range I have him on and only lose to 2 of the "possible" hands so yeah, I call.
Thanks for the feedback.
Feb. 11, 2017 | 10:05 p.m.
Another spot I wonder about is my check behind on the turn. I'm wanting to get to showdown. I get called by several better hands and only get worse to fold there, also give chance for underpairs or missed straight or dd draws to bluff river so I think it's a pretty straightforward check behind. Any thoughts?
Feb. 4, 2017 | 8:22 p.m.
That's what I was thinking. It seems like a pretty straightforward call against his full range which could be as low as 88+ AQo+ Axdd 10Js. He's a strong player with no real tells. I thought the bet size was the most relevant tell, leading me to believe he's bluffing or trying to get me to fold a chop.
Just so you know. I did call and he flips over QQ. He played it perfectly knowing that he can get max value against Kx on that run out and no other hand will call even a small value bet. For example, would AQ even call a half pot bet on river?
Thanks for the feedback.
Feb. 4, 2017 | 8:16 p.m.
I'm in CO with KJhh, effective stacks about 1200
EP limps for $10, MP (villain) raises $35, I call, BB calls, straddle calls, EP limper calls.
(pot ~170) Flop KQ2o, BB checks, UTG checks, EP checks, V bets ~130, I call, other three fold.
(pot ~430) turn 2d making BDF draw, V checks, I check behind.
(pot ~430) river another 2, V bets ~1.5x pot $625, what do I do???
Board reads KQ222. I have KJ
Villian is a very solid LAG player.. I feel like river counterfeits his AK, KQ hands.. He could have AA or QQ but I block KK.. Is there a 2 in his range? AQ? Would he ever bet this much for value? I feel like it's a huge over bet to get me off chop but should I make this call for chop?
Thanks in advance for any feedback.