i dont think this is completely true. 0% its most definately as wrong as c/raising 50% an a big sample in regular NLHE 100bb cashgame.
and if you´re looking for stats at your oponents hud to exploit or to adapt to, i think its a very viable question. like "What c/raise % on the flop is normal, what is too much -> When should i adjust my cbet frequency" and so on.
Sept. 18, 2018 | 2:10 p.m.
if you have the skill to play that hand in that spot +EV with NL10 rake you shouldnt be playing NL10.
And telling the average NL10 player that this is "reasonable" is just a lie.
we do have KQcc, and some 8x hands we can/want to lead. so i think we could work in a range that leads. and Q4cc should be a part of it imo.
Feb. 12, 2018 | 10:54 a.m.
it does lower your standart deviation but has no effect on your winrate.
if you appreciate variance turn it off. if you like to avoid variance turn it on.
that everything you need to know when deciding to run it once or twice.
Feb. 12, 2018 | 10:23 a.m.
i assume people tend to check mostly their check/fold range on that board. so most get to that turn with a big air range compared to the occasional AA / or sometimes KK. hero is superpola.
we have a suuuupersmall range. and most likely (or very rarely) have very little to connet to that board. we need to take some of thos A2-A5s hand to bluff with since we dont have much else. think i would exclude all the non backdoor flushes and take the Ax BDFDs and bet most of them on the flop.
The turn i think is more of a check/call than a bet (except you have some strong reads on him and think he folds JJ/QQ to a very high frequency.)
Feb. 12, 2018 | 10:19 a.m.
that seems very counterintuitive. why would you size down with that logic? shouldt we check with a high frequency and have a small but pola range that bets biggish?
Feb. 12, 2018 | 10:11 a.m.
Im not folding this. Your are pretty much top of your range. Villain could spew with KQ/KT and do some blockerstuff. Villain does have (and should have ) AA in his range. But if he has it its just the way it is. And tbh its as likely for him to play KJ that way. and those are even more combos - more reason to call with 77 (over J7 for ex., since you beat the same range and unblock strong Jx)
Feb. 12, 2018 | 10:04 a.m.
When you face 18% Vpip you allways want to assume that your opponnent plays the top-ish xx% of hands.
and an 18/8 nit does not know when its a good spot to bluff (not saying that spot is one) otherwise he wouldnt be a nit.
Jan. 29, 2018 | 2:32 p.m.
im sure your comment is almost flagable. or maybe i dont get the joke....
Jan. 29, 2018 | 11:35 a.m.
infos on villain? you assume he has 65o in his range. so he has to play like 80 vpip. if he does, bet Flop definately.
if he doesnt have such a high vpip you need to work on your range assumptions.
for as played without any information i would just fold. yes you have backdoor equity but will probably not realize to much of it since you will most likely be facing turnbets at a very high freq.
btw: you want to turn your hand into a bluff when facing a weaker action but keep "valueplaying" your hand when you face a stronger one?!
Jan. 29, 2018 | 11:33 a.m.
without any infos i guess AQ is a freq split in call and fold. definately folding Qh and maybe even some other AQ combos.
maybe we should c/call like a really low % of AK OTF wich would shift more AQ towards folding but cant pio right now.
Jan. 29, 2018 | 11:27 a.m.
You cant "protect" (its a diffrent term for valuebetting in most scenarios) if the range you´re vbetting against a too small part of his range...
I would just check/decide. if he bets smallish call if he bombs just fold. assuming he calls AxKs and AxQs he has 4 combos you´re ahead of and alot more spades.
Jan. 29, 2018 | 11:21 a.m.
Anything happening after you get your hand dealed does affect the EV of your hand.
So its very unrealistic to assume you can hit the "exact range" in any spot. to be honest like any other range in poker.
And yes, certain combinations of players behind you could allow you to be opening 100% from the CO and still playing every hand +EV.
In these situations you "leave" the equlibrium thinking and play exploitively.
The Big Blind folds 99,2% of your SB steals and only 3bets AA.
In this case you should allways openraise - and allways fold when you get 3bet (u dont defend any frequency or what ever).
In your example. When the fish is in SB and you get 3bet (assuming his 3bet frequency isnt out of line) you fold your added range (or even more depends on his range) since you gained the EV you are looking for in the situations he doesnt 3bet.
Jan. 29, 2018 | 11:02 a.m.
Why isnt that enough?
speaking of opening i think you have a borderline hand to open UTG with.
I guess in theory you´re looking at some percentage to open.
in practice i would take a look at the other players and decide from there.
edit: just saw that you´re 7 handed. so i guess i just open normal.
Jan. 29, 2018 | 10:33 a.m.
No Limit Holdem Tournament
UTG (74k) 30bb
UTG+1 (48k) 19bb
MP1 (49k) 20bb
MP2 (31k) 12bb
MP3 (4.5k) 2bb
CO Hero (194k) 78bb
BTN (110k) 44bb
SB (76k) 31bb
BB (61k) 25bbBlinds: 1.3k/2.5k Ante 250
Pre-Flop: (6k, 9 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, MP1 raises to 7.5k, 2 folds, 7500 to Hero 193897
I have pocket 55´s. dont know why the converter isnt showing it. we were about 20 seats before the bubble. and the minstack on the table kept tanking. so im pretty sure he was aware of that. any viable 3betsize would commit me vs his shuv. so do you like taking the icm pressure in that spot and 3bet/calling it to ~20k?
or do you think people are openraise/folding not enough in that spot ?
Jan. 25, 2016 | 12:40 a.m.
I been disscussing winrates with certain Stacks with some people. Some said you should be happy to break even from 10-15 bb stacks while others said -20bb is what you should be averaging. Would be happy if some of you with a decent sample could post their winrates on following stacksizes: (mine are in "()")
1-5 (5.71; not really a sample though; pretty sure this should be minus)
6-10 (0.13; better sample; break even good?!)
and 16-25 (3.56)
thankfully HM2 has a "Tournament Stacksize"- Tab ;)
I would really apreciate any kind if feedback on this
Sept. 9, 2015 | 3:15 p.m.
i think you should exclude the QJs without dd. but definately include those 76s and even some A5-A2 with flopped BDFDs. its a KO MTT and hero will get flatted fairly wide from players that cover his stack.
i think on that river draws get bluffed with a very high freq. if ou add the A2-A5s hero has a call. if villain sometimes turns a hand like 56dd or 78s in a bluff hero has a clear call.
If Hero had the Qd its and obv fold though.
Sept. 5, 2015 | 2:09 a.m.
well hero need to defend over 50% of his range. if hero c/f those JThh type of hands it think foldin flop is good. if not and hero is nearly cbetting 100% of his range i think 99 needs to go in the flop cbet/call range (at least vs villains sizing). but nevertheless ist definately NOT a calldown and certainly a Fold OTT or earlier
Sept. 5, 2015 | 2 a.m.
I definately call Flop as well. You cbet that flop really wide and let him a very proftable atuoprofit spot right away by overfolding if you fold 99. I think there are some hands that could take this line and give up on turns like bare overcards. MY turn continuingrange would consits of all pairs with a club, AK/AQ/AJ with the Ac and all my flushes. Leaving me on the river with a callingrange of all my flushes AA/KK/QQ with the club and folding 99-JJ , AK/AQ/AJ