I think this can blast off some of the time. You can even think about overbetting the turn, but i am sure the damn solvers will have weird opinions about why your particular a4 is the wrong combo
Edit: it overbets with the ace of clubs in hand.
It also finds more ev in a river check
June 3, 2021 | 7:28 a.m.
River is probably a hero fold but seeing the results makes it hard to say
June 3, 2021 | 7:15 a.m.
I think you can bet this flop. Bet folding the turn is good.
June 3, 2021 | 7:13 a.m.
6 months before i even started to feel smart, 3 months later the dunning kruger effect caught up and i realized a ton of that was variance
It takes a long time to become an expert at poker at the people who do it in less time are savants
The more important questions are
- what are you doing to study
- What are you doing to help yourself master what you study
- Are you putting in volume instead of studying the hands you play
- How can we help you
June 3, 2021 | 7:10 a.m.
At around 26 minute mark:
could you talk some more about how btn and bb ranges interact with the board? You were saying even T8 is too good to bluff and J7 should bet large - I was a little surprised by the two statements together.
June 2, 2021 | 4:13 p.m.
May: climbing my way out of the downswing.
May was a decent month. I turned around a lot of what I was doing in cash and made some scores in the NJ MTT world.
PokerStars' NJSCOOP happened. It went well for me. I won one - the nightly stars on the 19th of May, won a second smaller tournament, and took a bunch of seconds and thirds. Read all about it here lol
Playing all of these tournaments was exhausting, and I should have given myself more downtime - I did alot less time to studying so I could focus on play and it did pay off I think
Played some live poker for the first time in 16 months! Two days of it and I'm down quite a bit, because I backed aces into a set in a spot I couldnt fold (SPR 1.5, king on the flop so villain couldve had bick slick). I also made the thinnest value-bet fold of my entire life (7s full of jacks folding to a river reraise from 8s full of jacks). So I don't feel so bad about dropping about $1500 on live play. I dropped down in stakes back to 1/3 and I'll just hang out there a while in valuetown, making hero folds.
On the internet, I did less than ok at first but as the month progressed I improved. I think I played well and I was studying hands correctly. I've been going back to the fundamentals and rewatching intro videos, focusing on making good folds on every street (I'm a payoff wizard), and I think this is going to start to pay off.
I don't want to look at an online MTT for at least another two weeks so I'll be playing a few hours of 6max and putting in some hours studying on my days off. The future looks bright.
June 2, 2021 | 5:11 a.m.
Block betting on the river came up a few times in this video. Can you explain your strategy for block betting? Where/how often do you block bet call? Where/how often do you block bet raise for value or as a bluff?
May 22, 2021 | 7:17 p.m.
A short update only for April (a few days late).
"April Showers Bring May Flowers" - Optimists Everywhere.
To put a positive spin on things, April has been a month of tremendous personal growth.
- I've spent a lot of time developing my poker game
- I've spent a lot of time focusing on mental game issues
- I feel like I'm starting to make some progress
That said it's come at a pretty hefty price. I'm down many buyins at 100NL where I've been trying to take a shot.
The last month has not brought happy news about my poker game. I've run so badly and played so badly that it's exposed a lot of flaws in my game. It's been a primeval, kind of brutal affair to see. I've been so tilted, I've done CBT to see what's at the root of it.
May 5, 2021 | 6:06 p.m.
I feel like i’m getting way more folds than i deserve here. Like queens aren’t calling two barrels and the range is unprotected.
If it is protected, i’m way more cautious.
You’re right the balanced line is pure show down value, i even checked the math above.
April 23, 2021 | 5:55 p.m.
Exploiting - if villain is my typical 25NL* reg who doesnt protect their range, I delayed cbet turn and fire river, 2/3 pot both times. They don't have a flush. On the turn they don't have top pair or better, and they don't have a strong draw. They also know you don't have the flush but might have improved to a king. On the river, the only things that call you are JT or Q9.
If villain is splashy, I bet turn and give up.
If they protect their range, I probably bet once on the turn targeting pairs less than tens.
For what it's worth, my solver disagrees. the GTO line is check through with black 6s
*Technically 30NL, but fine
April 22, 2021 | 4:57 p.m.
doubt a set gets to this river configuration
Never? There was a check raise into two people, one of whom called when the other could possibly click back all in. That screams set. I just weight it so heavily here and I can see a call on the turn being so easy to blast the river. You're right it's risky but there's a lot to put weight on your hand being lesser value.
and if [the set does get to the river it] may choose to check back
Why? Do you think you have a lot of straights in your range after the flop check raise? Not you particularly - you said you don't know the villain - but your player pool
How many bluff combos? A lot more than value. Lots of Ax of clubs KQ, maybe KJ, J9.
I just did not see many hands come along without some double draw potential. If you're saying you do, I you are talking about enough combos there to get to an equilibrium. But it would take a galaxy brain to bluff with KQ here so I would still count those out.
So, I have Hold em Manager 3 and you can look at betting lines.
I looked in my database of my players. So far I am the only person I can find who has more than one line like this and has bluffed. Every time I did I got owned.
When villains do it it appears to be a very value heavy line into a slightly less value heavy opponent range.
April 22, 2021 | 1:11 p.m.
I want to throw up just reading this. Also, the green color cruelly spoils the ending.
Villain’s range is disgusting. 5 sets, 4 98 combos, at least one queen jack, 1 AK, possibly one more and maybe the other two if they saw you run a great one. How many natural bluffs are there to think they block your exact hand - KJ? AJ? J9s? Are they gonna fly off the handle with JT?
I think this is a fold.
April 22, 2021 | 5:37 a.m.
‘ How does fish making polarization errors, betting with weak/medium made hands affect this concept?’
Do you mean when a rec does that weird merge-y thing where they bluff with third pair on the blank river full of missed flush draws? You induce ‘bluffs’ to bluff catch with the top of your value range instead of actually bluff catching the stuff with good blockers.
April 21, 2021 | 7:43 p.m.
I did a couple of things and I would say my predictions were a mixed bag,
In short hero's strategy on the flop is a pure check. The range advantage is outweighed by the nut advantage. There's a ton of check raising after villain goes for 30% pot bet, and queens will sometimes actually call it off if the villain jams. If you go to the turn as flat caller, you check and then the villain over bets and queens mostly give up. The call down hands at this point are kings or better. If the turn checks through queens lead.
I also locked in a 50% bet on the flop and the hand changed significantly. Still check raising the flop some with queens, but the strategy does it less overall. Checking the turn a ton either way when the king spikes and facing a 70% of pot bet more often (I didn't include a pot sized bet to simplify but my guess is this would show up a lot because there are a few overbets). Again when turn checks queens always bet the river.
In both cases, the river bet is getting called by smaller pocket pairs, and 8x.
The river checking strategy is basically bluff catching with as weak as ace high. There's still some 9s in the villain's strategy barreling off.
I think there's something to be learned from this even though we're not at equilibrium.
*Flop check is good.
*A flop call or a check raise is good. I think calling it off in real life this deep is very questionable at best
*Turn check is good.
*We could bet the river. Villain has calls in their range and I don't see a ton of bluffs showing up on the river here. Bet-check-bet is a value line.
April 20, 2021 | 1:23 p.m.
I'm solving this giving SB a wider raising range and button a much wider calling range due to stack depth.
I predict a balanced strategy but a lot of checking. QQ will be at least partly used as a bluff catcher on later streets and IP villain will be polarized and firing two barrels with flush draws, barreling off with straight draws and underpairs. I expect to see overbets.
It's a big boy, so we'll see tomorrow.