A short update only for April (a few days late).
"April Showers Bring May Flowers" - Optimists Everywhere.
To put a positive spin on things, April has been a month of tremendous personal growth.
- I've spent a lot of time developing my poker game
- I've spent a lot of time focusing on mental game issues
- I feel like I'm starting to make some progress
That said it's come at a pretty hefty price. I'm down many buyins at 100NL where I've been trying to take a shot.
The last month has not brought happy news about my poker game. I've run so badly and played so badly that it's exposed a lot of flaws in my game. It's been a primeval, kind of brutal affair to see. I've been so tilted, I've done CBT to see what's at the root of it.
May 5, 2021 | 6:06 p.m.
I feel like i’m getting way more folds than i deserve here. Like queens aren’t calling two barrels and the range is unprotected.
If it is protected, i’m way more cautious.
You’re right the balanced line is pure show down value, i even checked the math above.
April 23, 2021 | 5:55 p.m.
Exploiting - if villain is my typical 25NL* reg who doesnt protect their range, I delayed cbet turn and fire river, 2/3 pot both times. They don't have a flush. On the turn they don't have top pair or better, and they don't have a strong draw. They also know you don't have the flush but might have improved to a king. On the river, the only things that call you are JT or Q9.
If villain is splashy, I bet turn and give up.
If they protect their range, I probably bet once on the turn targeting pairs less than tens.
For what it's worth, my solver disagrees. the GTO line is check through with black 6s
*Technically 30NL, but fine
April 22, 2021 | 4:57 p.m.
doubt a set gets to this river configuration
Never? There was a check raise into two people, one of whom called when the other could possibly click back all in. That screams set. I just weight it so heavily here and I can see a call on the turn being so easy to blast the river. You're right it's risky but there's a lot to put weight on your hand being lesser value.
and if [the set does get to the river it] may choose to check back
Why? Do you think you have a lot of straights in your range after the flop check raise? Not you particularly - you said you don't know the villain - but your player pool
How many bluff combos? A lot more than value. Lots of Ax of clubs KQ, maybe KJ, J9.
I just did not see many hands come along without some double draw potential. If you're saying you do, I you are talking about enough combos there to get to an equilibrium. But it would take a galaxy brain to bluff with KQ here so I would still count those out.
So, I have Hold em Manager 3 and you can look at betting lines.
I looked in my database of my players. So far I am the only person I can find who has more than one line like this and has bluffed. Every time I did I got owned.
When villains do it it appears to be a very value heavy line into a slightly less value heavy opponent range.
April 22, 2021 | 1:11 p.m.
I want to throw up just reading this. Also, the green color cruelly spoils the ending.
Villain’s range is disgusting. 5 sets, 4 98 combos, at least one queen jack, 1 AK, possibly one more and maybe the other two if they saw you run a great one. How many natural bluffs are there to think they block your exact hand - KJ? AJ? J9s? Are they gonna fly off the handle with JT?
I think this is a fold.
April 22, 2021 | 5:37 a.m.
‘ How does fish making polarization errors, betting with weak/medium made hands affect this concept?’
Do you mean when a rec does that weird merge-y thing where they bluff with third pair on the blank river full of missed flush draws? You induce ‘bluffs’ to bluff catch with the top of your value range instead of actually bluff catching the stuff with good blockers.
April 21, 2021 | 7:43 p.m.
I did a couple of things and I would say my predictions were a mixed bag,
In short hero's strategy on the flop is a pure check. The range advantage is outweighed by the nut advantage. There's a ton of check raising after villain goes for 30% pot bet, and queens will sometimes actually call it off if the villain jams. If you go to the turn as flat caller, you check and then the villain over bets and queens mostly give up. The call down hands at this point are kings or better. If the turn checks through queens lead.
I also locked in a 50% bet on the flop and the hand changed significantly. Still check raising the flop some with queens, but the strategy does it less overall. Checking the turn a ton either way when the king spikes and facing a 70% of pot bet more often (I didn't include a pot sized bet to simplify but my guess is this would show up a lot because there are a few overbets). Again when turn checks queens always bet the river.
In both cases, the river bet is getting called by smaller pocket pairs, and 8x.
The river checking strategy is basically bluff catching with as weak as ace high. There's still some 9s in the villain's strategy barreling off.
I think there's something to be learned from this even though we're not at equilibrium.
*Flop check is good.
*A flop call or a check raise is good. I think calling it off in real life this deep is very questionable at best
*Turn check is good.
*We could bet the river. Villain has calls in their range and I don't see a ton of bluffs showing up on the river here. Bet-check-bet is a value line.
April 20, 2021 | 1:23 p.m.
I'm solving this giving SB a wider raising range and button a much wider calling range due to stack depth.
I predict a balanced strategy but a lot of checking. QQ will be at least partly used as a bluff catcher on later streets and IP villain will be polarized and firing two barrels with flush draws, barreling off with straight draws and underpairs. I expect to see overbets.
It's a big boy, so we'll see tomorrow.
April 20, 2021 | 4:48 a.m.
Fold and feel great about it. MP is positional and 3bet vs utg. That’s like 99+ KJs+ATs+,AQ+ You’re a dece underdog, dominated or facing a set when you pair.
if you don’t have any flatcalling range here, no one will argue with you
Cold 4betting with KQs is not very exciting to me but solvers love it.
April 20, 2021 | 4:11 a.m.
Gto wizard is kind of a luxury but a useful one. It helps with
It also costs hundreds of dollars a year and doesn’t do anything you can’t do yourself at a lower cost with gto+, flopzilla and a little creativity
April 12, 2021 | 7:53 p.m.
Sweet Jesus this is a weird field. They all have better preflop hand selection than me but no one gets flop play or remotely how to play turn and river.
Again and again, I saw spots where i'm concerned a higher rake environment is penalizing marginal spots - ATo UTG came up a few times.
2:45 - don’t check the flop w anything. bet every hand in your range.
3:37 don’t isolate with Jack ten off suit. Wouldn’t mind a flop bet vs the right fish but a check should be default. Don’t bet the turn for value unless nine high is calling
Also 3:37. tt. Flop is a tough spot. I think fold is kinda just ok but better than call and raise is terrible. If villain only knew you were good for a couple small bets, right?
6:25 at least 4.5 x to pop it up from sb when co limps
6:50 Shortly after you call 55 from sb with what seems like a bit in the bb. Nice exploiting. Don’t usually call from sb though
8:20 - fold kto utg all day
10:10. Large cbet on this flop. It is too draw heavy to range bet, so you have to be polar. Your hand is a great one to bet.]
12:30 Ah8h on the right. probably a good tight fold where you're seeing bet sizing tells and a high rake but usually this is a more +EV raise than opening ATo UTG is.
13:28 on the right. I like the consideration for 3bet. You must bet the turn when it checks through.
15:40 77 on the left. Mandatory cbet for range on this board, unless delayed cbet is an exploit in your pool
16:40 Q9s on the left - again I would use only the large cbet on this board. I would three barrel this hand into most people unless you improve to a pair
17:20 - QhTh - in this rake environment do not limp from sb (most ppl don't ever but that's another story). Postflop, Bet-bet-bet is the line. The villains range is unfiltered. Q2 may pay off
19:47 K9o on btn. large bet size on this flop too]
20:10 AsKc in the BB vs HJ 3.5x. Make it 13 to go. It's such a nasty betsize and it works well. Everyone hates their life - how do you size your 4bet? How do you call it?
20:26 7h6h, I think you will get more folds from the regs in this game than you can imagine if you check-raise this board. Try it, maybe i'm wrong.
22:20 ALL FOUR SUITS OF QUEENS ARE ON THE SCREEN BLESS UP
Left screen flat call villains 3bet on the flop. Let them spew it off them selves
Right screen. I small cbet this board on the flop, but i think the solver line is a larger bet- i havent studies paired boards and playing them superduper well. Turn is mostly a check because not much calls you and pays you off
24:00 set of fives. Flop is a mandatpry flat call. Keep the SB in there to do something stupid, get the money in on the turn against this crowd.
27:25 Left screen. AJo is in my semibluffs for my polar betting range on this flop
Also consider simplifying your hud. I took a lot of stuff out of my main screen and i'm glad i did. Cut a line out and shortened it.