(IM A PLO NOOB! POSTING TO LEARN!)
I would 3bet the flop as well with such great equity and the chance to make an Ace fold and have worse draws call.
On the turn I would give up as its the worst possible card, against A* you have 13% Equity. I am not sure though if people would bluff the turn? Can he expect to ever fold you here? He should know that it is a nightmare card for your strong drawing hands but you might have a fullhouse here often enough for him to not be able to bluff you profitably.
March 28, 2015 | 7:12 a.m.
If he thinks his hand enough to raise for value on the turn, he probably thinks its good enough to valuebet the river unless it brings a club . Therefore I would either jam the turn or check/call the river, leaning towards jamming the turn. I agree that its rarely a bluff and therefore don't see the need to give him a chance to fire again with his air, and you beat enough of his raise/calling range here. AA are unlikely to flat pre, 66 is one combo, 2 is highly unlikely in his range. A6s is pretty much the only combo that beats you, so just give him 67s and you're ahead.
March 28, 2015 | 6:46 a.m.
I think barreling the turn and river is dangerous because villain has a very strong c/c range on the flop. He is unlikely to call too many suited connectors preflop, more like ATs, maybe a few lower TXs and pocketpairs, and if he hit a set or TP, I think he will slowplay almost everytime knowing he will still stack your strong overpairs on most runouts anyway but wants you to catch something with all your broadways that would just fold to a checkraise. And top pair (or JJ as the results show) wont be good enough to checkraise for value and just call, and never fold to that 2nd barrel.
Your valuerange on the river is very narrow (ATs, JJ+), which will incline him to bluffcatch lightly.
Feb. 14, 2015 | 5:15 p.m.
Very easy fold imo. He should have 0 draws on the flop with his range, only busted draw would be a turned GSD/OESD which you even block. Therefore he must be barreling pure air 3 streets. Since hes tight and 3betting vs an UTG range (with a small sample I think the VPIP/PFR is describing him better than his 3bet%), there probably isnt even enough air in his range to begin with.
I think you can even fold the turn, its close though, IP I would call.
Feb. 14, 2015 | 11:35 a.m.
With the reads and dynamics you gave I would try to build a check/calling and check/raising that both include draws and 2pair/sets. Usually I would just go for a checkraise here with a set repping sets and draws, but against an aggressive player and good hand reader it can be very useful to have a hand as strong as a set because once you just call that flop he will consider your range capped and put a lot of pressure on you.
I dont like the idea of donking our strong hands as this is something he can very easily pick up on, a simple note such as "donk set on drawy board" will remind him to make good laydowns without investing another cent and how weak your check/calling range from now on is. The latter one is true for the idea of checkraising as well, but Id go for something like checkraise the strong hands 75% of the time and checkraise a lot less (but not 0) with draws. As you sid his cbetting range will be really strong and therefore semibluffing goes down a lot in value while your implied odds increase.
As you can see m suggesting un unbalanced range that still keeps villain guessing, so a GTO player would completely disagree with me. Also I remember FoxwoodsFiend saying in a video that he would never checkraise 2pair or better in this spot, but unfortunately I cant remember all the reasons (it was higher stakes though, so the reason I mentioned that villain will incorrectly assign you a capped range is even more important).
I dont understand your reason for donking the turn though, it negates all the advantages of not having checkraised the flop.
Feb. 13, 2015 | 7:13 p.m.
I think Im raising the flop. Most players would bet bigger with a good hand here, you have no SD value and there are tons of worse hands he will just fold to a raise. The K and the T will be great cards for barreling putting him in an ugly spot even with his 2pairs. As played Im raising the turn as well. Its kind hard to rep a bluff here though, you are rarely calling that flop with air and would now have to be turning a pair into a bluff which he shouldnt expect too often.
But I think there are simply enough hands that you can get value from now, such as any set and any straight, good 2pairs might make a bad call as well. Youre hand is vulnerable as well, any spade might kill your equity or your action (+ the 3 non spade kings).
Feb. 12, 2015 | 10:36 p.m.
Hero doesnt have villain covered, we only need 29%.
Im also calling. AA/KK/QQ is 7 combos here, shouldnt be hard to find at least 3 combos of anything else :-). And you can even discount AA/QQ a lot, so by just giving him KJ, it should be +EV, and theres QJ and of course a T can never be ruled out completely at those stakes.
I would bet bigger on the flop btw. I think hes either check/folding or check/calling, regardless of your betsize. Once in a while you might get a call from a medium pocketpair that was planning on giving up on the flop if you bet small, but I think your missing too much value by 2nd/3rd pair+GSD type hands. I think he can go for a c/c quite often with those, figuring your snapfolding all your air vs a cbet here but might stab.
Feb. 12, 2015 | 2:55 p.m.
I just felt like most players would have to at least think about basically getting it in with a draw against two players in this spot.
Very unlikely to see fish make snapdecisions with strong hands, as they have to think even more what to do. Given that we are ahead against many draws and crushing TP (which is a likely hand for a snap-click-it-back), I would just jam here. QQ+ can be discounted heavily because of his preflop call.
Feb. 11, 2015 | 7:23 p.m.
Noone raising the flop? We want to look as weak as possible, and a flopraise would look the weakest. While some players, nits included, might fold an overpair to a turnraise (often correctly), noone would ever fold the flop. Therefore I'd make a rather big raise on the flop and fire 2 somewhat small barrels, maybe slightly less than 2/3 pot.
The usual reason for calling the flop would be to let him catch up and/or keep bluffing, but if you give him nothing but KK/AA, neither is the case.
Feb. 11, 2015 | 7:16 p.m.
28/16 sounds like someone who calls too much, im shoving. As said, 2pairs and sets should be discounted due to his flop and turncall.
There are 18 combos of A5/A6/A8, its really not hard to find 19 other combos that will call a shove and you dont even need that many since you can discount at least a few combos. Id be surprised if someone with those stats will laydown trip aces wit a strong kicker or a flush here.