I've found that fighting fire with fire is a bad idea. You absolutely want to widen your range but its dependent upon how the other players are adjusting if they are also widening their ranges you usually end up just as you say multiway with sub par holdings.
Maniacs are the most frustrating opponents to play and they require the most out of your patience.
The only general advice I have is to make sure the maniac views you pretty aggro or pretty tight. You want the maniac to either want to stack of lightly or find the fold button more easy. Depends of course on exactly how the maniac is playing.
Dec. 3, 2017 | 3:50 p.m.
Spots like these I find to be quite player dependent (at least at the low stakes), some will only raise KKxx here and maybe 99xx, wraps are most likely getting called. So when you block middle set you are always going to either be flipping or crushed when the money goes in. Combo wise his top sets are much more likely than the big wraps he will be comfortable to shove the flop.
The check on the turn is also very indicative of a set. Every straight draw got there and he has seen you check to him, he dosent bet because he knows you can have the straight and want to x-r him of his hand.
Folding river is probably the best in the long run without player reads/dynamics. He really shouldnt have worse boats than you and most dont bluff the river with that line.
If you have seen him stack off on the flop with worse bottom set in a min raised pot before then just ship the flop. But CO range that call vs a minbet preflop and wants to jam that flop against a stab from someone that isnt the preflop raiser screams value.
Aug. 19, 2017 | 5:40 p.m.
The calculation is correct, you are just running better than expected. Also remember that EV is ONLY all-in EV and as such quite useless. What is important is to look at hands and conclude whether it was the right play in the long run against his whole range. For example there will be times you get into a 50/50 all-in but that was the best case scenario, worst case scenario you would have had less than 20% to win. So if you win the flip your net winnings go up but in reality you should be down significantly.
Aug. 12, 2017 | 5:12 p.m.
Well at least from that interview we can see that the project is moving forward. As Stars have abandoned ship for real now I suspect they are really hustling to get of the floor and grab as much leaving players they can get.
Aug. 10, 2017 | 3:02 p.m.
The big question for opening any hand is what is likely to happen after you open. More so in terms of number of callers or how much you get 3b from behind.
In the really low stakes were people are insanely call happy to see if they hit the flop you can afford to drop out a lot of marginal opens like QQT8ss UTG. If you already know that on average you get more callers the pot will be bigger and thus you can bet bigger and get more value when you hit hard. So that will negate the loss in open frequency (the reason you open is to steal the blinds, actually playing the hand is a byproduct that one would rather not do).
A good hand UTG has to often be able to out draw and over nut more than one hand very often. A set of jacks is rarely top set on the flop and KK/AA comes around quite frequently and is very likely to be played behind you. So on a KJ7r board you dont fist pump shove your set (JJT8) plus gutter to the second straight 4 way. Since you are OOP to all but the blinds you cant pot control and will have a though time realizing your equity. The difference between a set of kings and jacks on that flop is that with Kings you cant be drawing close to stone cold dead. A competent calling range can easily have KKQT for both a higher set and higher straight draw leaving you drawing to only quads
Found this article as a baseline which seems pretty reasonable. But remember that UTG and MP it is not a crime to tighten up especially if you are a little unsure about postflop play.
Aug. 10, 2017 | 2:47 p.m.
Yeah I doubt he puts you on much besides AAxx and on a paired flop what is he wanting to shoveling in all his money with besides knowing you likely have a good two pair? So most of the time he will have a random 9 here I think or some wrap + FD. Rarely I see him stone cold bluffing. Rare is that someone is so bad they dont have single clue as to what this type of spot generally means. So baring any reads he really is a super maniac or really plays like its hldm he's got your overpair beat or in bad shape.
July 15, 2017 | 4:21 p.m.
Zenfish writes: "Observation about lawmaking in general: Rules/laws that can not be enforced serve no purpose."
How do you reflect upon a law that regulate murder? If all people buy a gun and starts shooting each other the law will have no meaning and law enforcement couldnt keep up even remotely. So would that render the law about commiting murder useless? The laws work because most people understand why stealing or murdering is a problem for a society as a whole, law enforcement is mostly there to rehabiltate the criminal and take him out of society so he can do no further harm.
I do see your point in this case about online poker and that a ToS that cant be enforced serves less purpose. A regular bloke that is otherwise a good guy can have little issue breaking the hud rule etc because he dosent view as a big "crime" no specific individual get overly hurt (financially) by the direct effect from violating the rule. So the person wouldnt view it as big problem neither for himself or his victims. So if cant be enforced it serves only the less morally incline gain and the ignorant or of higher moral standard lose.
Laws about murder and banning of huds have way different implications for the victim. One is very finite for him as a person the other he wont even notice.
What I see as the major issue is that many pros view poker as a money grab, "I'll play a few years make as much as I can then do something real with my life". Which leads to pros giving little care for the long term healty of the games, it just have to be good a few years more then I'm good kind of thing.
July 8, 2017 | 6:33 p.m.
I think that anything but seeing holecards in real time at the tables is just kind of "meh" in terms of some having edge over others. Do you play the same now as last week? Probably not, players change their game continously and as your sample size grows the more it will mask their new style/tendencies.
Sure being able to update a full player pool db anytime you wish would hurt the ecosystem a bit since regs could exploit the lesser players a bit faster. I guess the effect gets bigger the higher you move in stakes since the all the regs will be sharks hunting for any slim edge thet can find.
After having played on Unibet I think the best would be if poker rooms could provide an environment without huds or trackers. Just level the playing field and reward the players that actually go the extra mile to analyse their game. Best way is just give players the option to change their nick as often they want, then database/huds are quite useless.
July 8, 2017 | 1:59 p.m.
Plus when you build ranges its a good practice to exclude ranges too. For example when you cold 4ball and the 3bettor just flat you can take out every AA'** combo since he would most likely just 5b thoose pre. A good idea also is too look at what hands villain has shown down after 3b/4b and look at what types of hands he "likes" some might have a 10% 3b but does so with hands that might barely fit in top 50%. Plus I dont thing MP's 4b call range is 30%, it is going to be weighted to almost only good ss or ds rundowns which narrows his range considerably.
June 20, 2017 | 7:52 a.m.
Overall in small stakes my experience is that x/r indicates nuts to 3rd nuts an in this instance I would assume an Ax boat. It is very likely villain flatted a Axxx small card hand. Small stakes is very dependent on villain reads imo, some people never get out of line in the slightest while some "NL" players might x/r KKxx in this spot. But overall I think you are beat way to often to call
June 19, 2017 | 7:11 a.m.
Just to be clear, if such weighting scheme would exist it would then have to track all players hand histories and continously re-balance the "luck" on who's playing a certain way. Seems like a lot of trouble for marginal gains. PLO is just always going to be f*cked due to how big the game is on itself. And seeing as how people keep getting in preflop 100+ bb's with 5543 type of hands I dont see the need to rig the "luck". They will be raking more then plenty..............becuase more rake is better as we all know!
But why dont people just test their hand histories with normal statistics test? It would super easy to test your hand history (this is statistics A course) to say that with 99% confidence this can not happen. Just find the theoretical probability for the scenario you think happens way to often and pit it against your hand history and run a test.
June 19, 2017 | 7:10 a.m.
How's the sample size on the stats you are assinging villains? Overall you need more than just a bare over pair 3way at that SPR. The unexploitable AA* play is based upon a scenario of HU and SPR of 1. 3 way I think this is to bad of a flop to just jam ragged AA*. But since you do indeed block some straight outs and have a gutshot it will be close either way.
Aces in PLO is a lot of the time be "close your eyes and embrace the variance". Just be catious of making sure the SPR will be close to 1 or lower when you decide on your preflop action. Playing your hand face up with bets left to play is bad poker.
June 18, 2017 | 2:41 p.m.
Is it highly highly unlikely? Yes. Not possible? No. If you take enough people playing heads or tails some idiot will get only tails for an obscene amount of times = thinking the coin isnt fair. Probabilities is just that, probality of an even happening or not. Just because it is 4000 to 1 dosent mean it cant happen. The odds of it happening increases if you start to play alot of pairs (there are a lot of pairs in PLO). Not playing low pairs is keeps you away from this problem a fair bit. Anything below jacks are garbage and should be played in a small ball fashion more often than not.
Would my on experience support your theory, a bit but then again I got a surreal hand too. One guy flops quads, checks all the way to the river, second guy jams river with a boat, I re-jam with my back doored straight flush.
Have I gotten wrecked by quads a few times while holding top boat yes, more times than the other way. I left stars becuase I can have much higher winrate before rake back on other sites that also have lower rake and better rake back. So a big f* you to stars!
June 18, 2017 | 12:07 p.m.
So ran some simple sim in PPT a 14% UTG open leaving out top 2% of hands, SB 8% minus again top 2% and your actual hand PPT gives you 40% equity vs their full range with UTG at 30% and SB 28%.
If you know that they would guaranteed to jam all but the absolute garbage AA* its very likely you have the best made hand currently. There wont be many sets in villains ranges but you should be the most likely to have AA*.
So if you are supposed to have crushed the board and against anything that gives action you instead just hold top pair and runner runners I think your course of action should be quite clear. Getting stacks in here will mean you are a significant dog. And the times you do have top set how big of a bet should they call against with them rarely having anything but a 13wrap?
Reads can sway the decision very easily to just shipping it but overall I dont see a merit of a large bet on a board that favours your range so well and is unfavourable for theirs.
June 12, 2017 | 8:53 p.m.
So after 7k hands in a format you do for "fun" you think its fair to assume anything about the game? A crusher can have 50k break even stretches, slight winners can have longer and loosing players............well it wont be pretty. Just research how many starting hands there is in Omaha, its a big game in every sense!
PLO is probably the most profitable cash game a skilled player can play, is the long run long? Yeah really long but were else will you see players call an entire stack T high preflop or call 3bets with a pair of fives with low side cards. Sure they have equity but given that they jam entire stacks in with that equity the winning player can eek out an enormous win rate despite not being that far ahead.
June 12, 2017 | 4:37 a.m.
Just dont get upset when you loose half your roll. Even idiots with idiot plays usually have a lot of equity against you so shit can still happen. But if they are really giving away money all power to you and just get on the grind!
June 11, 2017 | 8:18 p.m.
My guess is some combo of high cards + flush draw. Bad players will check call something like a set on the flop but never bet. Then when the flop gets checked through they figure nobody probably dosent have a straight, your raise then looks suspicious and if he then picked up a flush draw he is calling 100%. And if he hits the flush he most likely will bet it for value since he dont think you have a flush.
On the river why would an otherwise passive player bet? He has to think on so many levels if he is going to do it as a bluff and make you fold. I see this so often on flushed flops when they flop a set, they will call and donk full pot when the board pairs. They want you to call, the thinking they would have to be capable of to think up floating two streets and hope the board pairs so they can bluff. They wouldnt try it if they could come with this strategy because the board wont pair often enough to make it +EV
Just the fact of a significant gap between VPIP and PFR should tell you he bets for value when he has it and plays it close to the vest when he dosent.
Easy fold but I know its really hard then and there. Will you get bluff sometimes yep but no way close to what is needed to warant a call.
A villain that has previously showed proper aggression and tried to bully players around might try to bluff but someone who opens almost only premium pairs and rundowns just want to get payed.
June 11, 2017 | 4:06 p.m.
"dont go broke with one pair"
I think betting smaller on the flop is a better idea for your entire range, especially when its rainbow. Besides a queen you dont really like too many turns and the times you dont 3b AA** you really want to see a turn for cheap with them just calling hoping to draw to the same/worse straight. So with this type of hand here I would bet smaller to see what shorty does and snap him of and fold if MP shoves over the top. So the bet is to generate action that you can draw an easy decision from with out it costing you a whole lot.
My 2c at least
June 11, 2017 | 3:40 p.m.
Well two each their own but if you are behind any unpaired Kxxx hand its hard to merit a big cbet into a board you will be 100% be outplayed. They will put you AAxx and if they have spade blockers (you hold no spades and all spade broadways are live) they have even further help in playing their hand correct. On this board this hand is a "flipping or f*cked hand" and you need +40% equity to stack of given the SPR. The odds arent really that good, if it were say 3/4 pot bet left then its a snap jam. As of your time to act on the flop you have invested 15bb and want to jam the remaining 85 in a scenario when your lucky to be flipping and in a multiway pot its reasonable that someone actually hit this flop.
Sure a cbet might be ok given somewhat standard villains but as soon as they raise or call you will hate life. Low stakes are very read dependent, some might jam QQxx no redraw but overall without reads I havent found people to play for stacks without a good made hand.
April 2, 2017 | 4:22 p.m.
ZeroDegrees in what percentile would you qualify this flop for your hand? You have a bare over pair and no redraw besides a very unlikely straight, of which you will need to dodge spades twice.
Even if you get the same flop but with 2 clubs you will find that you are rarely that far ahead on this type of flop when villain actually flips over his cards. Yes many times he has flopped a miracle but with this hand we have no good outs besides one Ace.
The question to ask is often not so much as what do I bet-gii in this spot but what will villain re-jam with? You are never ahead against a re-jam, a pot bet with this hand on this board serves only to fold out air. But when you do hit what should villain then gii with if you pot and hold several key blockers? A small bet will be much more beneficial in this type of spot.
You are hoping he calls with a pair of kings with decent kicker and a second pair in his hand, this is the only type of hand you are way ahead of (KdQd5s5d = 23% vs actual hand). A 12% hand is ahead of your hand here, even just a Kxxx is ahead. So yeah I think you will find way better flops to play;)
So a cheap stab vs fold happy villains or just x-fold imo.
March 28, 2017 | 3:22 p.m.
If their fold stats are overall high (especially in 3b pots) you might go for a Cbet. Meaning that their tendencies are quite fight or fold post flop, if so, cbet probably around 3/4 pot.
Otherwise I think you can probably x-fold without to much worry. You really only have your aces and a very unlikely bdsd (given that alot of your outs are probably in villans hands).
Could consider x-c against UTG if Co folds.
Overall you are OOP with a face up hand with really poor equity against anything that fights back and you will hate pretty much every turn but the non flush completing Ace or a few of the low cards.
Biggest problem I see on this type of board is that there is only strong made hands or flush draws that will fight back and against those hands we are far behind or flipping at best. So stacking of here shouldnt be profitable with bare AA. You havent really invested that much in the hand and you flopped almost the worst possible so a x-fold or bet fold is probably the only option, depending of the tendencies of the villains.
March 28, 2017 | 9:28 a.m.
So with more callers we need a lower SPR to shove any flop profitably?
Oct. 27, 2016 | 8:09 a.m.
So I have been thinking about how I play AAxx, the "get 1/3 pre then shove clost to all flops" is what I have been thinking about. When we get 1/3 in pre we will have an SPR of 1 post flop but what if we only get say 20% in pre but with multiple callers the SPR on the flop still comes to roughly 1. Do still stack of on almost all flops or do we play more poker?
So in short is the AAxx unexplotative play based upon getting HU with a SPR 1 or is it just getting to the flop with a SPR 1 regardless of nr villains in the pot?
Just thinking about it I would say with more players in the pot the SPR have to be incrimentally lower for us to want to shove alot of flops.
Oct. 14, 2016 | 10:23 a.m.
This might not pan out but if there ever was one guy to bring a second coming of poker it would be the allround nice and extremely smart guy mr Phil Galfond!
couple of things mr Galfond
1 Good luck!
2 Dont sell out
3 Laugh like the god damn Joker all the way to the bank when you have crushed the sorry souls over at Stars!