Think #2 is a great question. Even if you deviate from equilibrium at one node to exploit, there would be a new equilibrium at the consequent node. Its just not the same as it was before you decided to deviate!
I think when saulo talks about x'ing behind AKss on Ac turn in equilibrium, he means the new one after he decided to call. As you pointed out, the old one doesnt exist anymore.
Feb. 16, 2020 | 11:59 a.m.
Thanks for a great video! Think this was a good intro on how to really study off the tables effectively.
Would you be going over how to organize the data on excel once you've created aggregate reports? I'd think lot of people would find that useful since there's just so much data and it's hard to parse that data effectively.
Excited for the next part on exploitation.
Thanks for this series :)
Happy new year!
Jan. 3, 2020 | 5:07 p.m.
Hey chris great video!!
I enjoyed the highway 99 killer and poker hands as a book analogy! :)
Liked verse 27 as well. In my experience having fluidity in terms of thinking and assumptions is mostly a plus, but as "a traveler who is not intent upon arriving", I often times get lost in the tangents and don't finish the tasks I set out to do. How do we create a balance between having concrete plans/deadlines for tasks and yet be fluid in our thinking and ideas (which allows us to go off tangents and think outside the box!) when we are doing the work?
Jan. 2, 2020 | 7:04 p.m.
Hey guys, great video! Loved the format. Appreciate all the pio sims you guys ran as well! Eager to see part 2 :)
On hand 1 J63J6 board: I was wondering if oop is ever supposed to donk small on the river. I'd think that 6x are well represented in both ranges but maybe bb shows up with 6x a little more often than bu as played?
Also liked nuno's explanation on AJ5 board about why 95ss, despite having spades, becomes a better call otr than other 95s combos since hands containing spades bet turn more often.
Dec. 27, 2019 | 3:15 a.m.
While watching the video, I thought that it was pretty neat to see how ev for specific hands was generated by being in profitable scenarios on future streets more often; so I'd be excited to delve deeper into the idea of equity not translating into ev and seeing more examples of that. :)
Dec. 26, 2019 | 4:22 p.m.
Ohh and I also liked that you showed how equity doesn't always translate to ev by comparing JTss to other JTs combos. Kind of drives home the point that solvers possibly choose combos to bet that have opportunities to reach very profitable nodes on later streets. Well done IMO!
Dec. 24, 2019 | 9:22 p.m.
Personally I feel like this was one of the best videos of 2019! You did a great job of presenting your ideas and then coming to good conclusions from the observations you were making. Thinking of poker hands like kind of a battle for equities, rather than the old standards of polarity and hand/range strengths etc, is very fresh and exciting!
I think this video greatly complements Qing Yang 's video about equity distribution where he outlines how betting ranges/frequencies are a function of how the equities are distributed within both ranges.
Keep up the great work! Eagerly waiting for part 2,3,4,5 :D Haha.
Dec. 24, 2019 | 9:14 p.m.
Earlier on in my career, for a time period I also used to pretend that human players were just bots! While playing live poker, I'd pretend that all players would have floating number w/ stats over their heads! Think it helped me relax and focus on playing my best game based on stats I was collecting, rather than dynamics or "feelings" etc. I think it's okay to feel some anxiety in the beginning of the session, just know (or convince yourself!) that over time, as you make more decisions, these feelings will pass and you'll focus better on your decisions and other actions at the table. So you don't have to brood over them :)
Dec. 10, 2019 | 6:25 p.m.
The Journey of a thousand miles starts beneath your feet
Probably one of the most famous adages from Tao Te Ching, but so easy to miss in our day to day lives! It's so easy to get just get swept up by the current of our thoughts and our grandoise plans to do miraculous things in the future that we forget to take those first mindful first steps! Haha!
Great video as always Chris! I like how you are always able to integrate taoists philosophies and poker so seamlessly!
Dec. 10, 2019 | 6:17 p.m.
This video isn't working for me. Tried both html and flash; other videos seem to be working fine.
Dec. 15, 2017 | 3:33 p.m.
OP busto obviously. Haha kidding. Just got lazy and didn't keep up with the blogging I guess. Update in short: Making very slow progress at the phd thesis, playing poker twice a week, doing coursera and edx courses on the side, going on trips and traveling with SO :)
Feb. 21, 2016 | 9:02 a.m.
It's quite liberating to acknowledge that our existence is governed by fair amount of randomness and fate and it is something we have little control over. I think this realization prevents us from being miserable when things don't go our way. But to have the inner calm and ability to completely trust yourself when everything around you is falling to pieces (so to say) is the real challenge.
July 13, 2014 | 2:31 p.m.
Thanks so much Mr.Sneeze. Yes monetary goals aren't good at all. Initially, I used it as an added motivation. Yes, streaks are mental projections used by our minds to fill in the gaps and alleviate confusion. It's so easy to answer the question "Why am I losing so much?" with "I'm just running bad right now." It's so hard and time consuming to critically analyze everything. You are correct in saying that I should be extra cautious - I have felt the need to "get back to where I was" before.
I feel like I have tilt issues from time to time. One of the point mentioned in the article is that you shouldn't be concerned with either past or future. There's only the hand you are playing now. There is so much wisdom in that thought. I am definitely a culprit of not staying in the now. I feel like I understand the randomness inherent to the game very well, but when I'm in a bad mental state, I interpret it as being helpless against the random events that are abusing me left and right. This mindset makes me detached from the results, but also impedes me from critically analyzing my decisions and I tend to avoid responsibility for them altogether ; and I convince myself that "Oh I'm running bad right now, nothing to do against variance, just keep playing and randomness will be with you soon". While there is some truth to it, it is very dangerous to attribute everything to variance and luck. It makes one lazy and irresponsible.
Thanks for bringing all this to light Mr.Sneeze. I shall take all of your great advice to heart and sincerely work on being more self aware and mindful.
July 13, 2014 | 3:41 a.m.
Hey thanks man. Yeah don't want to be bothered by results so I think having comfortable BRM will be good. I'm accumulating a lot of self doubt and am very critical of my skills at this point, so I'm not even sure I can beat 600nl. I played around ~4 hours today and I like it. Just hard to keep track of everything on 4 tables; but in time, I hope I get used to it.
Hope you had a good WSOP man.
July 11, 2014 | 8:05 a.m.
Hey I'll try to help.
1) Never heard "felting a hand" but have gotten "felted" quite often :P
3) Fancy term for doing different actions (check, call, raise etc) with different parts of your range.
When you arrive at a decision, you won't play your entire range in that spot the same way. For example, you'll fold a part of your range, you'll raise or call with others.
July 9, 2014 | 6:20 a.m.
Hey guys, I've taken an extended break from poker now and have done much needed catch up at school. But now it's time to get back into it. I am not going to go back to playing 5knl/2Knl as that would be a poor bank roll decision. I have around ~40BI remaining for 2Knl. But this is my life roll, so I'm not totally comfortable playing high stakes anymore. I feel like I should improve more and to that effect I've decided to play lower stakes online. I'm mainly debating whether I should play 200nl with 50BIs or 600nl with 20BIs. I can't handle multitabling too much, but I'll probably play 4 tables of 6max.
Progress (or lack of ) so far:
My goal for this online "experiment" is to understand my own game and see where I fall. I'm thinking of taking more creative lines and play a very loose aggressive game to gain a deeper understanding of opponents' psychology and tendencies. I've done this before but I ran absolutely terrible and lost 16BIs at 600nl. After that, I gave up on online poker thinking I can't play more than one table at a time, but this time around I'm confident I can handle 4 tables and come out with some great insights and experience.
Good luck to me.
July 9, 2014 | 5:36 a.m.
River xr could be because he sees your small river bet as weak? He doesn't think you have bunch of Ts and are mostly OVP heavy. I think I'm calling river. I don't think we are getting beat by a boat ton of times, if anything, we are getting beat by 89 and that's it. I suggest betting bigger on river though since it polarizes and doesn't seem very thin valuish. You want to get called by bluffcatchers. A lot of it depends on table dynamics etc too though.
July 7, 2014 | 11:32 p.m.
3b bigger pre. Bb cold calling range is going to be something like 99-JJ, AQ. He shouldn't have any combo draw or and draw with real equity on that flop like AsQs or AsKs since you have As. You should hammer the flop a little bigger. I don't like checking, because I cant build a big pot. Against your flop sizing I expect him to raise TT there. On the turn I like one more bet - he never has a straight there. But check jamming is cool too because he's betting JJ for protection and he semi bluff with 99. If you barrel turn hard, you should be looking to jam river on a non 9, non J card.
July 3, 2014 | 7:29 p.m.
Hmm in game I never considered checking. I was conflicted about shoving or betting very small. I was hoping to induce a shove from him with worse hands when I bet small. Shoving seemed suboptimal though because I thought he sometimes jams hearts or smaller pp if he sees my turn bet as weak; but he's almost always folding to a shove.
June 24, 2014 | 3:24 a.m.
Hey thanks for the help. Yeah shoving seems okay but as I said in my original post, I felt like he folds out hearts if I shove here, but maybe he check jams if I bet tiny to induce a jam. I don't know might be giving him good price to peel though...
June 24, 2014 | 3:20 a.m.
BTN: Hero ( Hyper laggy image - known to run some zero equity bluffs etc. ~ $6.3K)
SB: Agro Crusher (Good on theory and makes sound plays; respects my game, knows I respect his. ~ $11K)
BB: Weak Player (Whale-ish) (Calls with all sort of junk pre, randomly spazzes out with mediocre hands. Always says ' I put you on AK' when he wins with garbage. $5K)
I open KsTs $150, SB 3b $400, BB insta calls, I call within 4-5 secs. Here I assume that SB made such a small 3B to keep BB in with his gabage, so I either think he has AA/KK or some sort of AXss that has good playability post flop. I think he would 3B slightly bigger with 88-JJ because of how vulnerable they are post flop against two opponents. BB can have pretty much anything starting from 53o+.
Flop ($1.2K) : 3c Th 5h
Sb bets $680, BB insta calls. I make it 1.7K for protection/value. Continuing from my pre-flop assumption, I think if SB has AA/KK, he almost always bets bigger on this flop. If he is continuing with random AX hands, I'd rather him fold those now and take this pot. As for BB calling, I don't expect him to fold any FDs or Tx here. Maybe folds 66-88 though (unlikely). Anyways SB snap folds, BB tanks for ~20 secs, calls.
Turn ($5.2K): 5d
Stack sizes: Me ($4.2K), SB ($2.9K)
SB checks Hero??
Although I have given him a very weak range to get to the turn with, one can never be completely sure. Board pairing isn't optimal for me, since I think he now throws away all his flush draws to a jam. He has some 5s in his range, 53,54,56,57 which explains his long tank call on the flop. He probably throws away 66-88 too now if I jam (maybe not, putting me on fd or AK). He might show up with the odd JJ or QQ here that he decided to cold call 3B with pre for whatever reason and flat the flop :S.
Anyways the question is: Is this a clear value jam? I don't think he ever ever folds better than KT here but might call with worse putting me on AK once again. What do you guys think of betting super small to keep his hearts and smaller pairs in, or induce a jam with those hands? My image is probably crazy enough to get a call out of smaller pairs though if I do jam.
Thanks in advance for all the help!
June 21, 2014 | 3:33 p.m.
PokerIsHard : Given that this is 3 handed, I dont think he has that many sets; he most likely 4bets all JJ-KK pre.
I think check calling is best option here, he could be raising with hands like JTs, QTs on the flop, you don't want him to throw those away. You are going to go broke against nfd if a heart falls anyways, so its best to let him keep firing. As for his 2p combos, AT, you have all the hearts. Hard to play on off suit J on the turn, pretty horrible card for our hand. Yeah not a fan of calling the river bet. Sigh and move forward I guess :)
I don't think we should be calling even if 9o falls on river against his sizing, we are probably chopping at best.
June 21, 2014 | 2:23 a.m.
Actually I dont think you have a lot of boats since you probably would raise sets and 98s on the flop here. So I guess betting on the smaller side to rep Q or JT is fine I think. Overbetting works better if you raise flop, check back turn.
June 21, 2014 | 2:01 a.m.
Hi. I think against his bet size on the flop, you should be raising with your hand. As you said you have all the sets and 98s, which he also has but I think he'd bet bigger with those hands on such a wet board. I think turn check is really better than betting. You can easily check back a boat here to keep weak part of his range here. On the river though, I'd consider overbetting since his range is very severely capped and you have all the boats and JTs in your range; so just give him terrible odds to hero call with his bluff catchers. River sizing here depends a lot on history and game dynamics though. So if you haven't been out of line running crazy bluffs, this is a good spot to overbet river.
June 21, 2014 | 1:58 a.m.
Hey mush, I like the fold here. He doesn't want a fourth diamond to peel on the river, so he'd probably raise with his 2p and flushes (except for the nut flush, as he may expect you to fire on the fourth diamond with your air hands) on the turn. But I don't think he jams the river with his 2p once you call the turn; not all the time anyways. He'll probably show up with random flushes a lot here, like J3dd, Q5dd etc - the kind of hands you expect them (the players you have so carefully selected to play against haha ;) ) to limp/call to see a flop.
June 12, 2014 | 2:56 p.m.
Hey guys, I am still trying to get out of downswing. Haven't really played much for past month due to school work. I tried playing 600nl on stars but that's didn't go so well either. I'm going to put in some time into hand analysis and study now, before picking up playing once again. I also need to work on being healthy (fixing my sleep schedule, exercise routine etc). I don't think I'll achieve my monetary goal before August but that's fine really. I just want to maintain a healthy balanced lifestyle for now.
Well that's it for now. Good luck to everybody!
PS: I didn't cash SCOOP main (probably was a bad bankroll decision anyways, but I got to play Phil Ivey. So that's awesome :)