Yappattack

Villain had 9d8d - so in hindsight I am under-estimating the number of combos with a 9 in that he gets to the river with lol! Equally he's alsmot calling with any K or two pair based on those flop and turn calls?

Thanks for this. I think it's very close from a GTO point of view, but I'm making an adjustment vs an unknown (likely recreational player) because I think he's really unlikely to play 66 and 88 this way. Typically I find thinking rec players in this pool almost always raise sets before the river, to get value from drawing hands. Removing those 6 combos makes a big difference.

Thanks for all the comments guys. I'm still leaning towards this being a shove OTR at least some % of the time since I'm going to give up on the brick 3 turn with a ton of my flop stab range. A4 picks up equity so I can continue. If I need 1/3 bluffs vs 2/3 value when I bet pot on the river, I would hope this is OK.

FYI - villain snap called with 99.

I'm no pio expert, but isn't it suggesting this because you have plenty of top pair, sets, two pair combos, flush draws and straights to call/raise? Then 2nd pair is going to be in a terrible spot vs opponent's range on a ton of rivers

I think you should be going full a full pot size bet on the turn, especially given V2's stacksize. There's $200 in the pot and he has about $210 left? You avoid this situation and he still probably calls it off with worse aces, draws etc

My preference would be for just calling on the flop though and looking to play turns and rivers. He's unlikely to fold after donking, but is quite likely to re-raise with a bunch of hands you're in bad shape against (A4s,46s,22,33,55,higher flush draws,overpairs).

As played I'd be bluffing river. This exact hand is in the bottom of your range here and you're probably not going to find many other bluffs here to balance your value hands. He's not exactly telegraphing a ton of strength with his flat pre, d/c flop, x/c turn, x river line either.

Yes I'm happy to get it in. I disagree with some of the comments below saying villain is going to bluff A and K turns if he doesn't have us crushed. I basically think villain is likely to shut down on turn and river a lot of the time on cards which are good for us. We end up check-calling all the brick turns and can't exactly bluff river if we don't get there. Plus if he ever folds a pair or AK to our x/r we're printing money.

I think I'd be check-raising on the flop in this scenario. Vs QQ+ we have 48% equity and if he's ever lighter than that x/r is +ev. We get to realise our equity and avoid making mistakes later in the hand (given we either GII OTF or jam turn if he calls).         

Thanks guys. Villain tank-folded in the end, but think the turn and river were pretty spewy by me all in all. 

Thanks lobster. Obviously I'm posting the hand with a guilty conscience :P 

Point taken. Hated it when I realised I had the king of spades, but looks like a fold regardless now.

Ok thanks. If that's the case I am absolutely burning money! Was a full timeban sigh job.

TY for comments. When I say I think he raises TT+ pre, I mean he I think he 3bets the fish initially, not 4bets once I've 3bet.

Can't remember where I read it, but pretty sure one of he RIO pros posted in a thread here saying a lot of the big winners at the micros have a RCE of 1.7ish. I'm not 100% on that though, just a recollection. 

Yep I think you've hit the nail on the head there. I hardly ever check-call the flop as PFR and I guess I'm auto-cbetting in spots where I should have a check-raising range with some strong hands in. Will work on this.

Taking a look at my stats and seeing what others are saying in other threads... my W%WSF seems a bit low at 42 and my river call efficiency of 1.41 needs to be a bit higher. Correct?

Thanks for the advice. The zoom games are definitely way nittier than I'm used to. I was playing 30/27 at regular 10NL 6max tables and winning. Here are the stats you asked for:

I think it's best to check back on the turn here. After villain has called pre and OTF, we don't have much equity vs his range and he knows the 4 is unlikely to have helped us. We can continue barrelling on A, K, Q and spade turns where the card is scarier to him and/or we have more equity when called. 

TY for this. 

Maybe I should have bet a little bit bigger, but I think $5 is too much. I typically bet between 1/2 pot and 2/3 pot in 3bet pots with all hands that I'm cbetting. I don't need to put that much in the pot when I'm bluffing because a smaller bet still gets a lot of folds.

That makes a lot of sense. I guess I'm jamming AA/KK in this spot too, to get it in vs Qx and draws, so it's not as if a jam is super easy to call with a pair. 

Love the shove :)

I think if he checks back turn the vast majority of his range is Kx and flush draws. That means I can just bet non-club rivers and x/f when the flush hits, since he's likely to check behind again on club rivers with his Kx hands. Basically I just don't think he has enough of a bluff range on club rivers to make calling +ev. 

Great, thanks Chael.