Ben Middleton

I don't think that's a stupid question at all and I really am not sure.  In my sim we were 34 or 35% I think vs two realistic ranges for both players which is significant but not exactly printing money.  I don't necessarily think playability is a big issue if you 4bet...you'll have 1.4 SPR or something vs 3 ppl so its going to be hard to make a huge mistake.  Having a K high suit for the extra 1% equity might be enough tho from making this a call to a shove.

One thing that might be important is if we no the fish 4bets most of his AA hands first time around.  If he's cold calling nearly all aces then that is going to make our 4bet slightly worst. 

A fairly clear fold OTF imo

At first glance, Given BBs cc stat and button 3betting 24% then I'd prob 4bet and try and push equity pre.  After looking at PPT sims for a bit, we don't seem to be pushing that much equity pre.  I'll do some more sims and have a look at this spot a bit more.  The difference for a K high suit as opposed to T high is 1% so thats fairly significant.

Kanu7 flopped a flush in a 3bet pot and got two small streets of value.  He definitely did not play this individual hand on this specific texture perfectly.  I'm guessing he was trying to induce OTR and protect his thin VB range.  He obv has spent a great deal of time and worked on his overall strategy so he probably plays his range on this texture fairly well.

This is probably going to be one of the lowest equity bluff catchers in your range so Don't call and definitely don't raise.

80% is fairly standard vs a min raise I'd say.  Some players defend 100% (or close to it) tho I don't necessarily agree with it.  Defending 40% vs a 3x open seems too tight.

'this time the flop comes down 722r. The 3bettor has WAY less trips+ in his range than the caller. Does that mean he should be checking his entire range here?'

Your range is a lot stronger than his overall in this spot.  I don't know what a GTO solution here is but in a standard MSPLO/HSPLO game, checking ur entire range here would be a mistake.

But 45 no re-draw isn't the only hand we flat the turn with.  I haven't done the combinatorics for this spot but I'm not sure its even 50% of our range.  We have sets, sets + flush draw. wraps, wraps +flush draw, double flush draws and our range is protected when we flat the turn.  There are a bunch of reasons why we don't have to worry about getting bluffed a lot on the river.  We've led into 3 other people and he has repotted it with 2 others left to act.  Sure CO is prob folding and HJs stack means he can do this fairly wide for value/protection vs his range but he can't go crazy esp when hes so deep vs us and also CO.  Is villain going to bluff us off a chop when he's got a flush draw and the other one comes in OTR?  Is villain going bomb the river when the board pairs when we can be C/Ring?

How can villain play perfectly against us?  You think if we flat the turn we only have 54 no re-draw?

Turn call is good and somewhat standard I think.  ur about 180bbs to start the hand and given stack to pot ratio OTT, u don't want to get it in.  This is one of the few rivers I might lead as a bluff.  If you have a good image then u should get folds a decent % of the time and its hard for him to be boated.  I don't think leading diamonds or hearts is going to work out for u as he'll often have one of those flush draws if hes repotting the turn so u might bluff into a flush or he may decide to hero call u as u can have a ton of other missed draws.  Maybe leading the 8c or 8d is good tho.

I will preface this response with my game theory is not that good and my thoughts on this particular spot may not be a good response to ur question.

If you're trying to develop 2 turn bet sizes in this spot I would think about what each bet size is trying to accomplish.  1/4 pot is thin value sometimes but probably mostly protection.  I would be putting in overpairs, 10x, some strong draws.  I would also include a lot of 2s in this range because its going to be hard on that texture to get 2 streets of value with a weak or medium strength 2.  if you go big with say K952 or even A952 and get raised OTT, ull be in a fairly ugly spot.

For a larger size, I would be fairly polarised with boats, weak draws and very weak pairs.  I don't necessarily think having 2 sizes OTT is a definite improvement over having 1 size and I'd be very careful how u split ur ranges.  If someone works out what ur doing with the 2 different sizes then u're going to get called a lot vs the smaller bet size and folded vs/raised small vs the bigger bet size.

You are only repping KK or KJ.  If you have a K blocker, I'd say the bluff is fine occasionally.  Doing this with just a straight flush blocker is a bit suicidal imo, hes auto calling with J10+.

Fold turn to the c/r. fold river.

fairly player dependant ie. his betting range with the fish in the hand.  Usually I'd call again given our equity tho obv not thrilled about it.  Usually c/f K and Q rivers if he bets a decent size too.

You need to think more about ur overall strategy vs a player who's playing the style they are.  He's 3betting a fairly tight range so I don't really get the flop float.  Sure u have some decent backdoors but its such a low equity hand to float, something like KQ would be better for it.  If you want to continue, I think u should be raising small OTF and whilst its ok once in a while, its not a standard thing to do.  Now you've hit some equity OTT, Id prefer to call instead of anything else.  Shoving is fairly bad given the risk reward due to stack sizes and his fairly narrow range.

Obv this spot is kinda villain dependant but If villain is a reasonable 10/20 reg then I can see him taking AKJ2, A5**, AKK* and attacking ur range.  Getting it in vs AA** obv sucks but If there is a value hand to take this line with other than AA, A99* is the next best.  I'm not sure shoving is definitely better than flatting but I'm not a huge fan of flatting given how well villain gets to play river.  I don't think we're getting bluffed often OTR due to his showdown/value heavy range but there is some chance we allow him to hit some equity which is a disaster.  If villain has 2 outs that's a lot considering the potsize OTT.