I'd like more info like the average stack size, stacks at your table (are you shortest?), number of tables left (has to be 3 or 4 unless its a max 6).
Can't be profitable for hero to 3bet/fold 30% of stack in any scenario. Can it?
Jan. 15, 2019 | 11:11 a.m.
Villian has committed 7,800 of his 30,000 stack. Its more than 25%.
He should be calling a shove. Its a bad leak otherwise. I'd rip it in.
Such a sweet spot given recent game flow.
(Your flat call may have given him a chance to fold AK no clubs on the flop)
Jan. 15, 2019 | 10:55 a.m.
I've been thinking about this hand a lot... some questions:
(1) What consideration might we give to the fact this is a tournament and not a cash game and while we might have odds for a certain play because we can't rebuy we factor that in to our decisions?
I know hero has villain covered; he has less than 60% of hero's stack so he can't bust us but generally speaking how much differently (if at all) should we play tournaments compared to cash games in regards to pot odds/risk of busting out/losing chips on a draw.
(2) Pedro, so if turn is a 3,4,5,6 (14 cards) we can lead turn? We can lead a diamond also obv (9 cards). That's 23 cards! If the turn is a blank and we lead villain folds if he whiffed flop/turn. I like this fold equity very much.
If he calls or raises though we are committed to calling off which might mean we have got 2902 (rest of villains stack) in on turn when pot has 1682. We have either 12 outs (to flush or straight) or 14 outs (to flush or two pair/trips). I don't like this price at all.
If we miss any of the 23 cards on the turn we have only 9 outs so we have to x/f if he bets more than 1/3rd pot right? (and we have lost 550 calling on the flop). Unless he is a payoff wizard.
(3) How often are we dominated by a bigger flush draw?
Or a bigger fd with a str draw or a pair and a fd?
I like that so many turns help us and a turn bet may win it for us if villain cbet flop and has very little equity but overall I am wondering how ev+ calling the flop is.
(4) thoughts on donk bet leading flop or x/r the flop?
This has been much more interesting hand than first appeared. Thanks Pedro for your comments above.
Jan. 13, 2019 | 11:43 a.m.
(It would be good to know more about the UTG+1 player)
Open folding seems ridiculous and flatting seems wrong though I can't say why... ie I can't put forward a good argument (which might be a problem).
If you 3bet to 8,000 or more you have bet more than 25% of stack...
you can't fold to a shove.
I think shoving yourself is likely to succeed often enough to make this play profitable. Maybe this is a cooler(?).
PS I think this is a very different situation to one where you raise and get shipped on - I'd call most of the time but there are situ's I might lay it down.
Jan. 13, 2019 | 10:47 a.m.
Hero HJ 202K, CO 220K
Eff stack size the hero's 202K
Hero raises to 24K CO calls
hero bets 31.5KCO calls
yep ok you more correct hero has 147K left
(i missed the "Hero has pot left" and I think also the CO call in my calcs)
Jan. 13, 2019 | 2:19 a.m.
wow really? huh. thats surprises me. i'd feel better about it with over cards.
if we turn a pair or a gutshot can we call another pot size bet?
jam if he checks turn is ok? or take a free card? either ok?
feels like he likes his hand betting that much. cbet steal betting less usually... gross if he has a better fd.
man, i think i let this go usually... have to look into it. thanks.
Jan. 13, 2019 | 1:52 a.m.
hmmm... i get that checking flop conceals strength of your hand/induces bluffs but overall I prefer betting flop more often than not against two opponents. there are possible fl and str draws (i think s/d more probable whenever two broadway cards flop, or T9x 98x flops).... far less inclined to bet flop against one opponent.
turn bet 2/3rd pot. ok. villain calls. good. very unlikely you're behind at this point.
Question: in the long run can you win more chips leading river and villain calls with worse hand?
(Only Ac or T8 in this example, maybe a Kx but it seems unlikely on this river he'c call a 1.5 spr bet for his tournament on this river)
do you win more check calling a bluff?
I would argue check calling bluffs (until opponents make an adjustment).
A river check induces busted fl draw or busted combo draw (eg Qc9c, Jc7c) to bluff. Jc9c also possible but that might ship the turn.
Other consideration the river A makes a bigger two pair possible (Ac8c, AcTc though I'd expect that hand to lead flop against two opp). call me nitty but I don't expect a lot of people to chase str when they may only have 6 outs (maybe I've played too much plo). I'm pretty sure I'm good here (but not as sure as if the river wasn't an A).
Nevertheless, I am check calling this river hoping to induce bluff (maybe check raise if river is a blank or a 9 (less worried about losing to bigger two pair) though I can't see a worse hand calling, actually with these stack sizes i guess he can stack off if he bets half his stack on river. hmmm, need to think about that some more.
Shocked to see his hand and make a note of it. Calling 2/3rd pot (16% of stack) on str draw with one o/c; with one card to come and maybe only 6 outs. I don't like that play at all. Also making a note he took a free card in position on the flop. Is he weak passive, doesn't semi-bluff, or into pot control? something else?
Jan. 13, 2019 | 1:36 a.m.
pedro what about busted fl d (esp diamonds that called on flop).
a hand w Jd or J9, JT checks river rather than leads.
are you saying in this specific scenario he doesn't have many bluffs OR a player who checks two streets (c/c one of them) and then leads river doesn't have many bluffs.
if it goes c/c on flop, c/c on turn, then a river lead when blank comes can be a bluff?
Jan. 13, 2019 | 12:26 a.m.
I like the way this played pf and on every street.
I get Karl's point about pfr but hero facing an ep raise and has 3 players behind (two who have him covered). game flow would be a significant factor to consider as would openers VPIP/fold to 3bet/4bet. would hate to get 4bet by opener. a 3bet/4bet from player behind would be interesting...
hero has 90bb. life is good. i prefer call and see what players behind do.
don't want to play a large pot against an ep raiser with this hand. better to play sc with deep effective stacks (its about 50bb here) so inflating the pot would reduce this significantly if I 3bet. have to fold if get 4bet.
Jan. 13, 2019 | 12:05 a.m.
interesting line from villian.
flat call pf - c/c flop - c/r turn - c/r river
i feel sick about the river c/r.
the turn c/r reps strength/made hand or possibly a bluff raise (is villian capable of this play). most fd that check raise semi-bluff do so on the flop. so fd seems unlikely. Th9h/combo draw is about it.
he may have a set giving hero a chance to bluff a busted fd on river. other possible holdings incl to Th9h, 77, 87, J8 and AhJh (though I think this last one very unlikely for reasons above), one pair 8x and a bluff. hero doesn't beat much of that.
I think turn c/r slow me down. Partly because I am not sure I am ahead and partly because I really want to know what he c/r turn with. He has put money in on two streets already. Hero has one pair albeit an overpair. I check river. I want to see his hand. I want that info.
Jan. 12, 2019 | 11:52 p.m.
like the flop bet sizing
agree with goodfellah a continuing hand often has a flush by the turn.
against a straightforward player c/f turn.
possibly c/c if opponent bets very very small (like 20% of pot).
shove turn is bad....
only get called by better hand.
plus its shoving an spr of like 1.5 which is too much.
10 runners left so you have ICM considerations... one short stack at this table/what about the other table?
less bad is to check call because a worse hand may be bluffing/betting a worse king/worse two pair/betting a scare card (which is awful if that was only plan; because with shallow stacks you risk too much and miss too often)
c/fold river if don't improve. can't see a good reason to hero call...
check turn close to 100% of the time. Find a better spot to commit stack.
Jan. 12, 2019 | 11:22 p.m.
I like the limp/complete from SB...
After his raise why not 3 bet jam? he's stealing in this spot most of the time. AJ- or pairs you dominate call hero far more often than over pairs. Or you are racing as a slight fav. Most likely BB using his stack to steal and he fold pf which is ok. You protect future limp/completing from SB this way.
Jan. 12, 2019 | 10:38 p.m.
interesting spot given recent game flow... would be ideal to get heads up with CO small stack with BU dead money; but BU has committed 17% of his stack and he'd be getting 2-1 on a call if you shove. he's calling.
he could be trapping/inducing a shove but more likely he think you r/f again and he has a strong(ish) A (AQo+, AJs+, AJ unlikely given you hold two J's but possible and this would be great spot; same for AT or worse but that seems much less likely) OR he has medium pair. KQs/KQ also possible. KJs seems very unlikely.
Note he has another 70BB stack behind him in BB which may mean he has flatted planning to fold if that player raises.
you'd be in great shape if CO and BU both had an A. you started the hand with 40bb which might seem like a lot to get aipf w JJ but I think if you are flipping v bigger stack most of the time (who may have one less out in CO hand) and you have an over pair more often than he does.
I think he calls CO shove with pairs 66+ given his stack. that range has 5 pairs that you dominate and 3 that dominates you. If you assign him a tighter range 88+ and AQ+ its much closer decision but again he may have one less out...if you lose to CU but win against BU you add 20bb to your stack. I say rip it in.
Jan. 12, 2019 | 10:29 p.m.
There is 16,800 (3.5BB) in the pot, Villain has a 35bb stack, on the bubble. He is in the SB, button opens, tight player in BB. Good spot to re-steal jam with atc.
I don't see why Villain would be worried about a tight player who hasn't acted yet.
Jan. 12, 2019 | 9:53 p.m.
(1) there are two possible fd and gutshot to wheel
(or gutshot to 6 or 7 high straight both of which are unlikely)
(2) can a smaller bet size induce a bluf/semi-bluff jam?
70k into about 127k (with plan call off a c/r); he has about 220k behind.
Jan. 12, 2019 | 9:41 p.m.
hmmm... interesting.... I agree its very unlikely to get called by worse (top pair is about it). the only reason to bet would be to get better hands to fold.
With Qd river we have enough showdown value with 2pair to check but if the river is a different d I think I am leaning towards betting river. especially if opponent can think hero calls the turn drawing to another d. eg holding Kd...or QJ or QT with one diamond (combo draw).
I think Ax two pair can fold, sets 333 and 777 can fold (AAA and KKK are betting flop against two opponents), low flushes can fold (opponent dependent I guess).
Read on opponent would be useful in determining if turn bet was simply having a stab at the pot given opponents checked back in pos. also if his river check more likely he has given up or gone into c/c mode (or even c/r).
What are your thoughts on betting river if it's a fourth d and we have a pair of kings Q kicker?
Jan. 12, 2019 | 8:54 p.m.
fold > shove > call.
set mining needs at least 8-1 to call. maybe closer to 12-1 or better because you don't always get paid of when you hit a set. not getting anywhere near those odds.
the other possibility pre flop is to shove 55 but given opponent has bet 25% of his stack he's rarely folding. if his raise was only 2bb that would be 17% of stack. still probably not folding. if his open was about 12% or less likely of opponent raise/folding much greater. i might shove under those circumstances given opponent is 3rd largest stack with lots of short stacks behind. two are tiny stacks. this is an important consideration.
also how many tables left? itm? next pay jump?
if you shove 55 and get called it's probably a flip 80-90% of the time and 10-20% of the time 55 behind to a bigger pair. so overall its -ev.
99+ might be a profitable shove(?). what do you think Pedro?
On the flip side... if we have AJo we are shipping it right? I am shipping any hand I am willing to open on the CO when I have 12bb. btw given the BB is calling EVERY TIME I am not shoving light here.
Rarely see flops this late in a tourney with shallow stacks.
As played, a bet on the flop is better than on turn. with A, K, Q on board 55 is in terrible shape. Also Pedro... how much more likely is Ax a greater part of opponents range than Kx, Qx?
(I can't get my head around AJo not open shoving)
Jan. 12, 2019 | 8:26 p.m.
I have a large series coming up. Several $1,100 side events and a $10,000 main I'm aiming to satellite into. I've only played one other $10,000 main (WSOP) but maybe a dozen $2,200-$3,300 events and 25 or more $1,100 events.
I have a few concerns. Concealing tells is a big one. Especially as I'm trying to shift from being perceived as TAG to someone who is more in the middle/can play TAG and LAG.
I feel like when I open up and 3 and 4 bet light (trying to take advantage of my tight image/against players who raise/fold too much) OR bet big hands for value that I am giving off tells.
Would love feedback... PS I just joined RIO this year. Enjoying it.
Jan. 11, 2019 | 2:28 a.m.
as played, anyone betting the river? on turn it looks like he trying to charge hero to draw to another d...
a 70% pot bet on river only has to work about 35% of the time?
(no d and villain can fold, low d and villain can fold, two pair can fold, maybe even a weak 65/64/54 fl folds)
plus sometimes Ax might hero call one pair and lose to hero two pair?
not much input on BB playing style/your image/recent hands...
Jan. 11, 2019 | 1:57 a.m.
As played on turn I think you are correct about checking river.
Or perhaps some quarter pot "blocking bet" hoping to induce a raise or a call from a worse flush (maybe even from a straight).
Personally I am more inclined to bet turn especially against a pay off wizard.
You say he is a good reg kinda aggro though. I dunno... have you ever been seen by this guy barrelling the naked A?
Overall I lean towards betting turn (esp against two or more opp)
Jan. 10, 2019 | 10:17 p.m.
Open is definitely ok.
Turn play also. If you both have JT you have 3 outs to improve. He can have 6, 3, or 0 outs to improve. Many players 3 bet KQJT pre flop. I wouldn't be too worried about villian having more outs to improve than you in this scenario. Its just as likely you might be free rolling. More likely you each have 3 outs to improve OR you both have an A and no one can improve.
I guess if he over bluffs you could flat his turn raise looking to induce a river bluff from him. I think if you raise to $6 the result is the same. He folds.
Jan. 10, 2019 | 10:02 p.m.
Hero BU against SB and BB?
you wrote: Turn (11.5bb) Qs 5s 6d Qh
SB bets 5bb, BU calls, Hero raises pot
SB bets about 40% pot and he's a "decent tight reg".
What do you think of his bet sizing?
What about leading turn oop?
Bluff? (possible as no one bet flop)
FH trying to extract value? (you think unlikely, maybe he has a Q though, maybe he is full and hoping to get raised or keep fd/sd in the hand by only betting 40% pot)
Bluff/NFD trying to set price? (bluff/semi-bluff)
What about the BB "big fish"? Whats he calling with? Fd or Sd? Probably not a Weak Q? Underfull? Unlikely he prob bet flop. So it seems you want to keep BB in the hand.
Raising: Trips with an Ace rarely fold. Maybe a KQ/no draw folds. Better flush draw folds. It would be awful to get RR here especially when an offsuit 9 could make a str for a fish and nuts for you. Whats the plan if you get shipped on? You have 6 outs to nuts. Flush might be good? 3 might be good.
I'd be interested in thoughts on bet size... I think smaller bet is better. Half pot?
Calling: Induces river bluff? Lots of straight cards and some flush cards but on a paired board I think river is checked by these hands. Maybe you can bet river if checked to? Repping FH? The turn half pot bet might be perceived to be FH already.
For me it really comes down to what I put the SB on.
To be brutally honest I go for pot control in these situations way too often. I think its a leak but I've raised/been shipped on/am behind/have to call too many times. Pushing small edges is something I need to look into.
This and betting straight blockers with a pair in my hand. Or naked A with three to a suit on board. Any threads on those subjects? Or not giving off tells when bluffing in a live setting?
(PS I just joined first week of Jan/enjoying the content/really keen to put some hours into studying PLO (Cash and MTT) and NLHE MTT)
Jan. 10, 2019 | 9:40 p.m.
doubt the lead means KK or AA...
Jan. 10, 2019 | 8:25 p.m.
which AA no suits are a pfr? AA two broadway cards?
wet flop - hoping to check raise?
aside from potting flop, what about half pot hoping for raise?
(seems in a few recent posts players are checking strong but vulnerable hands)