yeah i figured you'd say something like that. fair enough... I guess personally i feel like i may not play well (for a few minutes anyway) after calling there, if i was close to letting it go...
so I 4bet shoved JJ last night for 42 bb in a live tourney and ran into AA on the button. Against a guy who can 3bet light and had a huge stack. Gross, but kind of funny to read this post update the next morning.
Aug. 30, 2019 | 2:21 a.m.
38mins- how does Ace Broadway DS fare v utg 4 bet shove? Actually, more specifically how does that fare v AAxx. What are best combos to play v AAxx? (thinking later stages in a tourney context when its a close decision/perceived as close decision due to pot odds)
Aug. 28, 2019 | 12:48 a.m.
32:40 - doesn't the rank of DS rundowns make a big difference to these frequencies?
Also, aren't middling rundowns generally over valued compared to big pairs with connecters? ie QQJT/JJT9 better than T987/9876.
I feel like I need to do some work on rundowns
I guess thats a topic covered in some vids?
Aug. 28, 2019 | 12:27 a.m.
Hey Nick at 9:45 if villain puts you on AAxx and flop is Q23r then isn't villain calling off with a pair and a gutshot reasonable with a low spr? Villain has 15 outs... 11 to two pair, 4 to straight. Plus a bdfd.
Aug. 28, 2019 | 12:03 a.m.
At 44mins: is JJ ever a fold pf there? Earlier in vid you 5bet shoved AK a couple of times from blinds when button opened. Thats against wider range. Also, though I can't remember those hands exactly I'm pretty sure you thought the 4bet bluff in this population was too frequent/those villains stats were on the loose side.
The situ here is different: Here the open comes from EP/MP... AND villain has snug stats. If he also had 185 bucks it's an easy call but he's a bit shorter than you... I think I almost prefer fold > call > shove.
My reasoning: Villain tight range. AK/QQ+ (possibly AQs/JJ/TT but don't think so given his stats - have I interpreted them correctly?). Not doing great against that range. So don't like a shove. SPR on flop is 2-1... so if the flop comes ten high (no fd)... and he bombs flop, you call off? I guess so.. it didn't feel like you were set mining. Not a great price to set mine certainly. However I'm not sure tight player going to bomb flop light. So don't like call (but think it much better than a jam).
This might be a leak/drive a coach insane but additionally you'd had a good session. Doubled your buy in (well tripled across two tables). Felt like letting go of a hand and protecting winnings wouldn't be a disaster. From time to time we run into big hands... don't we have to give villain credit sometimes? Easier to avoid running into big hands against tight players imo. I hate paying off/running into a big hand against a tight player.
Aug. 27, 2019 | 4:33 p.m.
From 31mins, the 4way pot where you turn broadway...
(i) I like the flat on the turn from bb when its a rainbow board and two to act (trying to get gutshots and two pairs to call); less so when a fd out there with three opponents. I'm much more likely to raise then for protection. If I might be free rolling with QTs then i'm pure raise.
Q: If you were last to act in this spot and player to your right led flop would you be more likely to raise in a 4way pot because it would appear on that board its unlikely that either of the blinds would have much of a hand on that board and you'd want more value from a two pair hand?
Also turned set more likely in that spot. Surprised to see sb flatted pf with JJ - what do you make of that? 6.5bb in pot when it gets to him pf... argument can be made for raising to 12bb or so right? What does pio say about this spot with these stack sizes all four players have about 135bbs... sb hoping to flop set and double up obviously - is that a reasonable play at these stack sizes or a better play when deeper? Is that the sort of thing you'd make notes about this player?
(ii) On the river that's a world class check (takes discipline and awareness of the spot/opponents) especially in the moment. Summing it up so quickly. Brilliant. When there is a bad player behind (making a terrible overcall*) and when you believe river lead by sb is never calling a raise its a really good play. You have to have a really good read/stats on the sb though. Lots of players cant fold a set there.
Q: If the game was wild and loose and spewy (not zoom and you had good sample size stats) would you be more inclined to raise river? Or would you flat hoping for button to spaz out? I guess i'm asking if in wild games you think a flat looks weak and likely gets raised by button or if you think loose players likely call a raise? I find a little lost on loose tables...
Also, when there is a more competent player behind would you be more likely raising? That line might not make a lot of sense to a competent player after you flatted turn... you might induce a re-raise(?).
Q: What do you think of buttons flop check? Seems he ought to be betting there. Getting value from second pairs/gutshots. Seems unlikely another top pair checks in 4way pot.
*Interested in your thoughts on overcalling in general... is that a possible video topic?
Aug. 27, 2019 | 3:35 p.m.
Hi Jeremy, great video, really like the formula for pot odds in pko's and consideration of whether calling and losing means we no longer cover the table... plus consideration of opponents stats/their image of us...
I just wanted to ask if, when looking at pio (eg from 30mins in this vid), you could go a tad slower scrolling through different combo's please. I feel like a few coaches race through that - the combo's are flashing from one to the other so quickly its hard to see the frequencies of raise/check/fold and sizings.
Look forward to the next one,
Aug. 26, 2019 | 3:59 a.m.
I guess he figures (i) he has the best Ace as AT+ probably raises pf (ii) that the button has broadway hand rather than a pair which would have bet flop in position (iii) you are stealing, an 8/9 op more likely to lead with two opponents (iv) he has a FD to fall back on.... (v) on the river he's getting a good price and only has to be right about 30% of the time (vi) maybe he had a few hands on you and thought your bet sizing was inversely proportional to your hand strength(?) (vii) he was drunk/high?
Aug. 23, 2019 | 7:15 a.m.
gee... easy call. thanks!
Aug. 19, 2019 | 7:15 a.m.
48:45 Wondering what size river bet you'd consider calling here with third pair? Agree a J checks turn often but might also check river whereas a bet, check, bet line could be a couple of stabs no? I think a K often bets flop turn and checks river rather than bet flop and river. If there were more draws that missed would you give this more consideration of a call? Guess you block QT/AT/T9... hmmm. Without a T, maybe with a 67/68 hand, is that more worthy of a call?
Aug. 17, 2019 | 4:03 a.m.
Hey Pedro Madeira enjoying this series... particularly the idea of expanding value shove ranges and also expanding calling off ranges in PKO's. However, I did have a question at 24:10 - calling off 54BB with KJo. Man that seems loose. I get that (i) you have chance to pick up two bounties (ii) your stack is over 100BB stack (iii) if you lost you'd cover everyone but the guy to your immediate right (much better than doubling up someone to your left).
However, overall a flip is pretty much best case scenario isn't it? Going to be dominated often enough by AK, KQ, JJ+ that this is not a terrific spot for that price. Would seem really bad for the 54BB stack to shove all in with KT, QJ, JT. Thats about all you ahead of. I think more likely he has AQ, AT than any of those 4 hands. Much more likely again that he has AK, 99+. I guess you have been in this spot often enough to warrant call but wondering if you could show if it is close or easy call.
By comparison to the KJo hand for 54BB's both of the QTo hands seemed easy calls for 15-20BBs when you had 100-130BBs. You had more chips and it was much less to call. Really looking forward to seeing you work through this -all of the 13 hands you marked for review actually!
Thanks again for great series!
PS That phrase you couldn't quite get in the moment: I think its "Chips lost are worth more than chips won" - i.e. diminishing value of chips but how do we apply that in PKO's when we also widening our ranges?
Aug. 17, 2019 | 2:32 a.m.
Hey Pedro Madeira at 13:20 you'd call off last 10BB with T9o if folded to SB and he jams into you. Isn't that pretty close? Given its 9 handed, can't we wait for a better spot? Or is it likely with little FE our jam in a few hands might get called by 2 players? Something specific about this opponent shoving too wide in this spot? Or is it simply a vacuum call?
Aug. 17, 2019 | 1:11 a.m.
At 10:30 flatting A9 on 9 high board is a bit risky isn't? Any over card, except A, is awkward. You have 40BB, the SPR is 3-1. I'm wondering if larger stack size is better to slow play with this hand? I understand you inducing bluffs but wondering if a top pair of J+ might be better?
Aug. 17, 2019 | 12:33 a.m.
Hey Pedro Madeira , at 5:25mins, you don't discuss flatting 55 only 3betting or folding. Wondering why the flat call is not considered... too likely someone squeeze? If you flatted and one of the stacks to your immediate left (both under 20BB) jammed (and opener folded) then how would you proceed? The pot would have 25BB and you'd have to call 16.5BB. With your stack size seems an option(?). Also, what are your thoughts on occasionally flatting AA,KK here hoping for a squeeze? What conditions would make flatting a monster a good/bad idea?
Aug. 17, 2019 | 12:10 a.m.
Hey mate at 41:15 with 54o in SB v MP jamming 2.15 and BB having 7BB can you show why its a fold in a PKO. You have almost 22BB. It's only 1.65BB to call (pot has 3.65BB). I realise a BB jam would be horrendous but even calling that and losing wouldn't change the amount of opponents that you cover.
PS I'm not actually sure how much either bounty is worth. Doesn't that affect things significantly?
Aug. 16, 2019 | 6:29 a.m.
Hey Owen at 25:30 you have AQo on the button and talk about c-betting K87r... doesn't that board hit opp range better?
PS I wondered the same thing as JemLaBeatLOL re calling off 20BB with KQs given it was the first shove by opp. If he'd been open jamming a bit its different situ.
Thanks for the 55 ICM spot analysis.
Also in response to your request for feedback re final table: I am wondering if there are significant hands between other players that might be worth discussing. That would affect how you think about those players and how you play hands against them. It's always worthwhile to observe opponents... make notes etc
Aug. 15, 2019 | 12:25 p.m.
Thanks for the reply, I'll have another look, think about it some more.
No, board is A98 A 4 and goes check down
Ax is a clear check raise for value like 9x
I think we agree on this first point(?) but said it differently... our check induces a bet (me: opp either bluffs or bets a 9/8/4) which we raise (you: for value). I think most of our opponents see our line as a little odd, i.e. a bluff raise after we check/check/check raise and so they call off with a 9/8/4.
clear check raise for value like 9x Maybe K9/Q9 is a check raise but It's not terrible to check call with a 9, is it? How many worse hands call a check raise on this board? All 9's, most 8s, some 4's, some 77,66,55? (though these seem unlikely). Would be ugly to get jammed when we hold T9 for example. I mean it's possible our opponent slow played an Ace when we hold a 9(?)... less likely ip player slow play, but does happen. Pretty common for op player to lead turn if ip checks flop.
I don't play much heads up except against one friend, can't play online where i live. Don't play a lot of NLHE cash either actually. I play any tournaments/PLO Cash.
Aug. 15, 2019 | 9:41 a.m.
Totally agree with your final point re taking notes. I read this once many years ago and memorised it: "Writing is a neuromuscular activity that aids retention". Think same might be true of underlining things we read.
Aug. 13, 2019 | 9:04 a.m.
Hey Owen, I noticed re the KQs hand and the TT hand that you didn't go into odds to call. First hand it was getting close-ish to 2-1 and the second hand was 1.5-1
The first hand is a good price but position no good, too many to act behind. The second hand you close the action. Also neither hand would have resulted in a bust out if you lost. Isn't that a tournament consideration?
(I snap the TT in a cash game)
In a tournament I think it through a bit more (and still call). Maybe sigh call if he's tight but theres still more big A's in his range than pairs. I know many tight players that would ship 77+ in this spot. If price is down around 1.25-1 then a fold is more prudent against a tight player.
Is it because effectively solver took the odds into account that you didn't go over it? I play live (not in online jurisdiction) so am used to making these calcs myself.
Aug. 13, 2019 | 8:52 a.m.
I agree with more content on shove fold ranges by position and stack sizes. There may be some vids already. Hopefully essential, this sounds like essential stuff. A lot of it should be second nature but i haven't learnt them yet. How & when do we tweak these a little - ie bubble, opponent tendencies, table dynamics (stack sizes), icm, game flow etc
Aug. 13, 2019 | 8:40 a.m.
JJ no spade on a T62 high mono flop is a 98% c/f on the turn (offsuit 3). that surprised me... but i guess opponents range in 3bet pot supposed to be a high freq of two overs and a fd (15 outs) plus made flush, TTT, JJ+, maybe some low freq AT, 99, maybe sc some other suit or AK/AQ no fd that is dbl barrel bluffing. I guess we're not doing too well against that range.
so... when we ip we dbl barrel this spot with atc?
How different is this spot if its not a 3bet pot?